With drafts right around the corner, it’s time to examine the thinnest position in fantasy — tight end. This article will look at how consistent the top tight ends performed in 2018 and what it means for them in 2019. I started with wanting to analyze the top-25 being drafted this year but quickly realized how pointless investigating some of those players would be. To put the shallowness of the tight end position in focus — only 20 tight ends had 50 or more targets compared to 84 wide receivers and only five tight ends had over 100 targets compared to 28 wide receivers.

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In order to make this position worthwhile reading I made the following criteria for the tight end data:

• Being drafted as a top 20 tight end in 2019
• Completed seven or more games
• Completed two or more quarters in those games. If the player exited without two quarters logged, that game was not included. For instance, O.J. Howard left his Week 4 game in the first half and never returned. This game was not included in his analysis as it doesn’t give us a good idea of Howard’s productivity. While a player being injured is noteworthy, I wanted to get a feel for how players performed when healthy.
• Average at least 4.5 targets per game

The graphic below illustrates tight end consistency by calculating a standard deviation based upon their fantasy points per game in 2018. Standard deviation (SD) was used to examine the player’s consistency of putting up their average fantasy points (FPTS). For consistent production, we want a standard deviation to be as close to zero as possible. From the 16 tight ends in this analysis, the average FPTS per game was 8.9 with an average standard deviation of 5.7.

Note: All ADP and positional ranks were from August 21, 2019.

To provide more insight on tight end consistency, a version of Mike Tagliere’s analysis from his “Boom, Bust, and Everything In Between” series was included. Based on a lack of relevancy at the position, my consistency analysis for this article will be slightly limited compared to my previous QB, RB, and WR articles. The idea behind Tagliere’s work was looking at the average top-12 (TE1), top-24 (TE2), and top-36 (TE3) performances from all weeks of the season. For the tight end group, it would be pointless to examine TE2 or TE3 thresholds due to the scarcity of the position.

In fact, the average TE2 was 4.4 FPTS and the TE3 average was 2.2 – no one is interested in who performed at those numbers. Finding the TE1 tier provides a better understanding of what classifies a TE1 performance throughout the season.

An example of why we find the average is this: Vance McDonald was a TE1 in Week 1 with 10.9 FPTS and so was Matt LaCosse with 5.8 FPTS in Week 17. So let’s examine TE1 performances and how consistent our 16 tight ends performed at the TE1 threshold of just 8.6 half-PPR points.

The Big Three

The scatterplot above reveals Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and George Kittle having the highest average FPTS per game but also the most inconsistency. The reason for the higher inconsistency rates than the other tight ends was because they had a much higher ceiling than the rest of the field. Each of these guys had a game where they scored 30 or more FPTS. The only other tight end to score 30 or more FPTS in a game last season was Blake Jarwin in Week 17. These three also combined for eight of the top-14 performances from tight ends in 2018!

Travis Kelce (KC): AVG FPTS: 15.2| SD: 8.2
For the second time in three years, Travis Kelce was the TE1 last year. He had the highest average FPTS per game at 15.2 with a SD of 8.2 (second highest among tight ends). Kelce had 12 of his 16 games reach the TE1 threshold, which was the most of any tight end in 2018.

His high standard deviation could be attributed to how the Chiefs distributed the ball on offense. Kansas City doesn’t just hyper-feed one guy week in and week out. They have too much talent not to spread the ball around. They increased that talent this offseason by drafting Darwin Thompson and Mecole Hardman –two players that have already flashed in the preseason and are getting plenty of draft hype this year. I don’t have too much concern that these guys will eat away at Kelce’s league-leading target share of 26.2 percent but could be worth monitoring as the season progresses. I still think Kelce owners have nothing to worry about as long as Mahomes has a healthy 2019 campaign.

Zach Ertz (PHI): AVG FPTS: 13.9 | SD: 8.7
Even in a season where he was catching passes from two different quarterbacks, Zach Ertz still finished as TE2. Ertz led the league with 156 targets and was tied for sixth among all pass-catchers in red-zone targets (28). He had a fairly high standard deviation due to four games reaching 15 or more half-PPR points and four games below seven FPTS.

This also could have been due to the Eagles shuffle at quarterback last year. In 2019, the Eagles are all in on Carson Wentz as their future and brought in more weapons for him on offense. This is good news for Wentz but could be bad news for Ertz. With drafting a red zone threat in JJ Arcega-Whiteside, bringing back deep threat DeSean Jackson, and the possible rise of second-year tight end Dallas Goedert, Ertz’s volume could see a drop.

George Kittle (SF): AVG FPTS: 13.4 | SD: 7.3
There were very few moments that went right for the 2018 San Francisco 49ers but one man that emerged from the rubble was George Kittle. Kittle finished the season as TE3, led all tight ends last season by being targeted on 29.1 percent of his routes, and was PFF’s highest-graded tight end.

Like Ertz, Kittle had multiple quarterbacks last season that attributed to his SD of 7.3. With a healthy Jimmy Garoppolo now at quarterback, Kittle should be back in the top three and have a chance to take over the top spot this season. Of the big three tight ends this year, Kittle has the least talented supporting cast around him but has one of the most creative offensive minds as his head coach, Kyle Shanahan. A combination like this is why I will be targeting Kittle ahead of Ertz and Kelce at his current ADP of 31.

Fourth Member of Tier 1?

O.J. Howard (TB): AVG FPTS: 11.5| SD: 5.1
O.J. Howard had the highest TE1 rate of games last season at 78 percent. Due to an injury that cut Howard’s season short, he wasn’t able to show his full potential, but in the nine games he played, seven would have been good to reach the TE1 threshold. His 11.5 average FPTS per game prorated to a full 16 game season would have positioned Howard as the TE5. In a previous article, I discuss how Howard should see an increase in his production. With a new head coach and having a questionable Buccaneers’ defense that should lead to more opportunities for him, Howard has the chance to become one the elite tight ends in fantasy.

Evan Engram (NYG): AVG FPTS: 9.4| SD: 5.2
There have been some experts that debate on if Evan Engram should be next in positional rank after the big three. Those that think Engram is the next guy up likely point to how the Giants have no weapons now that Odell Beckham Jr. is in Cleveland. Those people have a point. In the last four games of the season (games that Beckham missed), Engram saw an increased role:

• Had 14.6 yards per reception over the final four weeks – 11.2 average from his first seven games
• He was targeted on 27.3 percent of his routes over the final four weeks compared to 16.7 earlier in the season
• Averaged 7.75 targets per game compared to 5.3 in previous games

The other half that doesn’t have Engram as the TE4 behind the big three tight ends point to the same thing — he is on a bad offense. Who knows how many games Eli will be under center but one thing we do know is the Giant’s offense is pretty mundane with him. The Giants ranked as 16th in scoring and 17th in total yards. Can you imagine one of the best tight ends emerging from this team? Engram last season averaged a middling 9.4 FPTS per game with a SD of 5.2. Even at such a low average that is still inconsistent. Let’s hope that the Giants offense takes a step in the right direction in 2019.

Other Notable Tight Ends

Eric Ebron (IND): AVG FPTS: 11.8 | SD: 7.6
Eric Ebron finished the year as TE4 after his break out season in Indianapolis. He averaged 11.8 FPTS per game with a SD of 7.6 and led the league with 13 receiving touchdowns. So why is he being drafted as TE10 this year? A couple of reasons: 1. The Jack Doyle factor and 2. Andrew Luck retired. When Doyle was healthy, Ebron’s playing time and production dropped. In five full games together in 2018:

• Doyle saw 29 targets to Ebron’s 15 targets
• Doyle red zone targets 6 to Ebron’s 4
• Doyle snap percentage of 77 percent to Ebron’s snap percentage of less than 40 percent

Many still can’t believe that Andrew Luck retired this past Saturday but the reality will soon set in and Colt’s fantasy players will see a drop in ADP. As tough of a pill to swallow as it is for Colt’s fans, the same may be said for the Ebron truthers this season. It’s hard to imagine Ebron seeing anything close to the production he had with Luck now that Brissett has been named the starting quarterback. As good as Ebron looked last season, drafting him this year will come with great risk.

Jared Cook (NO): AVG FPTS: 10.0 | SD: 7.5
The Raiders didn’t have too many bright spots but Jared Cook seemed to be one of the few shining moments in their season. Cook finished as TE5 while averaging 10 FPTS at a SD of 7.5. He crushed his 2018 positional ranking of TE23 but still had games where he went cold. Only 44 percent of his 16 games hit the TE1 threshold of 8.6 and had six games where he failed to reach five FPTS. Looking to the 2019 season, Cook will be catching footballs from one of the greatest quarterbacks in the league, Drew Brees. Do you think the Saints will feature him enough to draft him at his current ADP of 71 and TE7?

Vance McDonald (PIT): AVG FPTS: 7.2| SD: 4.3 
Someone has to catch the ball in Pittsburgh other than Juju Smith-Schuster, right? With no Le’Veon Bell, no Antonio Brown, and no tight end behind him, McDonald could see his role increase. From a consistency standpoint, he had a SD of 4.3 which is really good. The bad part is that he only averaged 7.2 FPTS per game. The upside with McDonald was never there last season but with Antonio Brown’s 168 targets off to Oakland, McDonald could be worth a pick at an ADP of 81 and TE8.

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Kevin O’Connor is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Kevin, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @22kconnor.