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Zero WR Strategy: Early, Mid, and Late-Round Targets (2019 Fantasy Football)

Zero WR Strategy: Early, Mid, and Late-Round Targets (2019 Fantasy Football)

The Zero RB Strategy has gained quite a bit of traction over the years. In fact, it’s gained so much so that it has spawned off a variety of other “Zero” strategies. However, one could argue that the “Zero WR Strategy” is really just a return to the old school approach of drafting running back-heavy teams and finding wide receiver values later in the draft. With the changing landscape of the league, it’s becoming easier to find highly productive pass catchers in a pass-first league, allowing you to target wide receivers in the early, mid, and late rounds while still prioritizing bell-cow runners, which have become fewer and far between.

The goal of this article is not to list all the available targets when using the Zero WR Strategy. Instead, we’re going to focus on precisely which targets you should be aiming to acquire in the early, middle, and later rounds. To appeal to the broadest audience, we will look at FantasyPros’ ADP for half-PPR Scoring since this format values all receivers on a more level base. For the sake of argument, let’s say your plan is to come away with three solid running backs or two star rushers and an elite tight end (RB-RB-TE or RB-RB-RB) and then perhaps another rusher or quarterback in the first four rounds. While all the WR1 and stellar WR2 candidates have likely been scooped up by Round 5, that still leaves us with a few strong early-round receiver targets in the lower-tier WR2 range who possess WR1 upside. In fact, there are two that you should target right away.

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Early-Round Targets: Tyler Lockett (SEA – ADP 50.0) and Mike Williams (LAC – 57.3)
It’s imperative if you’re going to make a move for a receiver no later than Round 5 that you grab one with WR1 upside. Lockett and Williams each possess that upside. Let’s start with Tyler Lockett, who plays with arguably football’s best deep-ball passer in Russell Wilson. The Seahawks’ wideout averaged 14.9 yards per target last year, the most by any receiver with at least 25 targets this past decade according to Pro Football Focus (PFF).

Granted, there are some knocks against Lockett to consider. Former top Seahawks receiver Doug Baldwin was never a top-15 targetted receiver and OC Brian Schottenheimer has a poor history of supporting great receiver production. Lockett was also historically efficient last year. However, both David Moore and D.K. Metcalf are hurt, which should only enhance Lockett’s target share. The all-but-certain increase in targets should mitigate any regression in that department. Additionally, Seattle still figures to be a run-first team, but the uptick in targets combined with Lockett’s big-play ability set him up nicely for a true breakout season into the tier where Baldwin once belonged.

Next, we have San Diego Charger Mike Williams. According to PFF, Mike Williams put up 3.56 fantasy points per touch last season with the Chargers, the highest rate among wide receivers, and there are tons of vacated targets to soak up with Tyrell Williams gone via free agency. Plus, star receiver Keenan Allen continues to battle injuries. He’s currently nursing both a sore knee and ankle injury, prompting Los Angeles to bring back Dontrelle Inman for depth in the wide receiver room. Williams is built like a prototypical number one receiver, and the Chargers spent a first-round pick on him for a reason. It’s not unreasonable to think heading into year three that the torch could get passed to Williams, and if so, the upside in being Philip Rivers‘ top target is immense.

Mid-Round Targets: Robby Anderson (NYJ – ADP 72.7) and Will Fuller (HOU – ADP 80.7)
Robby Anderson was challenged by new HC Adam Gase to become more than just a deep threat. Heading into a contract year, Anderson has scored at least six touchdowns in each of the last two seasons and averages 14.7 Y/A for his career. In 2017, when he was more featured by then quarterback Josh McCown, Anderson received 114 targets and posted a 63-941-7 season. Jets quarterback Sam Darnold is a superior talent and should take a big step forward in his second season under center for New York. With Anderson running a more comprehensive route tree and serving as the number one receiver, plus Le’Veon Bell forcing defenses to keep a defender closer to the box, Anderson could easily flirt with a 75-catch, 1,000-yard season with close to nine or 10 scores, making him a rock-solid WR2 at a mid-range WR3 price. Anderson recently missed practice with a calf injury, so make sure to monitor how that unfolds. If it turns out to be nothing major, then consider Anderson an ideal target in the middle rounds.

A lot of people are going to want to go Christian Kirk here (ADP 84.0), but I haven’t seen anything to believe the Kliff Kingsbury scheme is sure to take the NFL by storm, nor does the coach’s college track record portend to guaranteed success at the pro level. Add in a rookie quarterback and a horrendous O-line, and Kirk has more red flags than points in his favor. For that reason, Will Fuller seems like a greater upside target here.

First, Fuller has already produced stretches of WR1 play. Last season, Fuller’s average points per game when he actually played made him the WR7 on the back of three WR1 finishes and two WR3 finishes in Weeks 2-8. In 2017, Fuller posted three WR1 performances and a WR2 game in Weeks 4-8 before injuries derailed his season.

Quarterback Deshaun Watson loves to look for Fuller near the red zone as well as deep downfield. Fuller’s route running has improved, so the only thing keeping him from ascending into a star opposite stud WR DeAndre Hopkins is health. Right now, Fuller is actually healthy, making him the perfect upside target in the middle rounds, and one with a much clearer path to potential WR1 upside than alternatives like Kirk.

Late-Round Targets: Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB – ADP 120.3) and Michael Gallup (DAL – ADP 140.7) 
There are a few talented pass catchers in the later rounds that make for intriguing upside plays like James Washington (ADP 121.7), Geronimo Allison (126.3), and Anthony Miller (144.3), among others. However, many of those names have playing time issues (Washington), limited roles (Allison), or are battling injuries (Miller). Valdes-Scantling offers better value.

Like Allison, he enjoys the benefit of Aaron Rodgers throwing him the rock. Valdes-Scantling also posted the third-best separation rate last season among wide receivers with 50 or more targets, according to PFF. He’s one of four wideouts (Lockett being another from this list) that did not drop an on-target pass from the slot last season. A size-speed freak, Valdes-Scantling offers breakout potential as the primary deep threat and starter opposite Davante Adams for the Green Bay Packers.

Admittedly, Dallas receiver Michael Gallup doesn’t generate the same degree of excitement. Most folks are too focused on Amari Cooper’s potential in Dallas to realize that Gallup actually received more targets with Cooper sharing the field with him than not. Gallup totaled 507 yards as a rookie last year on just 33 receptions despite some struggles.

More importantly, Cooper has been sidelined with a plantar fascia issue since August 3, giving Gallup more reps. With Cooper off the field, quarterback Dak Prescott has been glued to Gallup all preseason and the results have been eye-opening. While the issue with Cooper doesn’t figure to be overly serious, it’s possible the injury could linger or Cooper may reinjure it once healthy.

After all, Sammy Watkins saw many of his early years derailed by foot injuries. Should Cooper miss time, Gallup would likely step into the number one receiver role in Dallas, especially with Cole Beasley gone. Even if Cooper plays all 16 games, Gallup should hold solid flex value on a team that may have to pass more if Ezekiel Elliott never reports or gets injured (as holdouts often do) after he does report. Gallup figures to post WR3 numbers or better at a WR51 price, making him a steal at his ADP to be taken as your fourth or fifth wideout.

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Paul Ghiglieri is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Paul, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyGhigs.

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