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We’ve asked our writers to break down the fantasy football impact of Antonio Brown signing with the Patriots. Here’s what they had to say.
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What is the fantasy impact of Antonio Brown signing with the New England Patriots?
I am curious to see how this plays out. Randy Moss was outstanding as a Patriot but many other wide receivers have had little to no success in this offense over the years (some with Pro Bowls on their resume). I am less of a fan of Brown each day as of late and cannot imagine a full 180 from him as a teammate and professional. Many seem to think that the Patriot Way can bring him back to earth, but I would have to think this is the ultimate test for that theory. The idea of a wide receiver that supposedly did not run precise routes (or even changed them on the fly) does not mesh at all with Tom Brady. Mr. Big Chest will soon realize he has no leverage at all against No. 12 or a hall of fame coach. Jon Gruden and Derek Carr don’t match up at all with their counterparts in New England, but if Brown can harness his talent and work ethic and somehow shake off the bizarre behavior from the last few weeks, he could really become a specialized weapon in this offense. I don’t see him being fed the ball here after missing training camp, but there could be games where the best game planner in the NFL uses him in spectacular fashion. I’m very skeptical that this will work, but he may be an excellent best ball receiver.
– Sheldon Curtis (@sheldon_curtis)
Score one for all the football prognosticators out there on Twitter — AB is officially headed to New England. The potential fantasy upside of this move is obvious. One of the best wide receivers of the last decade is teaming up with the best coach/quarterback tandem in league history. But the range of possible outcomes here is still very wide. AB could finish as the top receiver in fantasy or he could flame out with his third franchise in the last calendar year. He’s going to need to stay focused in order to deliver for fantasy owners, and it remains to be seen whether he’s able to develop the (on-field) rapport with Tom Brady that he had with Ben Roethlisberger. He was already being drafted as a second-round pick and the ninth receiver off the board, so while this is certainly a positive move for his fantasy ceiling, it doesn’t massively alter his overall value. If AB does get fed the ball the way he did in Pittsburgh, it’ll be a fairly significant hit to both Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon and a lesser one to James White. It’s probably a wash for Sony Michel, who may see fewer carries but more scoring chances, while Brady looks like a much better bet to finish as a QB1 than he did just 24 hours ago. Meanwhile in Oakland, Tyrell Williams theoretically ascends to the top receiver role, but his deep threat ability may not mesh well with Derek Carr, and the overall limitations of the offense will likely cause Williams to top out as a WR3/flex option. Hunter Renfrow should also see a bump in targets, but while his dynasty owners should be excited, he still isn’t a great bet to be useable in typical 10- and 12-team leagues, especially those that aren’t full-point PPR. The move doesn’t help Derek Carr or Josh Jacobs, either, but Jacobs still has a shot at RB2 value as long as the volume is there. The biggest winner in Oakland may be Darren Waller, who could now see enough looks to sneak into TE1 territory.
– Andrew Seifter (@andrew_seifter)
The gut reaction to Antonio Brown signing with New England is that it’s great for him and great for Tom Brady. I’m not saying that’s not the case, but we should pump the brakes a little bit. AB’s target share will not be as high in New England as it would’ve been in Oakland or was in Pittsburgh. 180 targets is off the table. Given that he’s missing a week, 140 targets seems most realistic. Brady does not instantly become 2007 Brady. The reason for Brady’s dip in fantasy performance has not been lack of talent in his supporting cast but rather the Patriots becoming a more run-oriented team. I do believe Brady could still sling it if necessary, but he won’t be asked to do it unless he has to. AB’s touchdown upside is certainly higher in New England. If he was with the Patriots all along, he probably would’ve been right there in that late first/early second-round wide receiver group rather than definitively outside the big seven and mostly behind Mike Evans as well. The biggest impact of the AB signing is it vaporizes any deep, deep long shot renaissance a select few people thought might come from Demaryius Thomas and it decreases the values of Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon. Edelman takes the biggest hit as his borderline WR1 status was predicated upon significant volume. That’s not happening anymore and Edelman isn’t this incredible talent that demands targets. Gordon takes less of a hit because his role doesn’t change, but whenever there is less of the pie to go around, it’s not a good thing.
– Jason Katz (@jasonkatz13)
AB remains a risky proposition given his mental state, but this guy is still one of the best in the game. Heck, he may have planned a coup from Oakland to land with New England in the first place. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have gotten the best out of troubled receivers in Randy Moss and Josh Gordon, and AB could be the next in that lineage. The perennial All-Pro may take a few weeks to get accustomed to the Patriots’ offense, but once he does, he’s a locked-in WR1. This caps the upside of Julian Edelman and the aforementioned Gordon as well as James White as a pass-catching back. For those fantasy owners brave enough to have weathered the Antonio Brown storm, a handsome reward awaits. This is the best possible situation for No. 84.
– Zak Hanshew (ZaktheMonster)
The big winner from AB to New England? Tom Brady and his owners. If you own Brady in Superflex leagues he’s gone from a second-tier starter, someone to play in plus matchups or on bye weeks, and he’s now a legitimate contender for a top-12 season. Josh Gordon was reinstated with no suspension and now Brown joins the team. Don’t forget in the offseason there were actually blurbs touting Maurice Harris. In three-wide receiver sets Brady has Brown, Gordon, and Julian Edelman to throw to. If you own Edelman and James White I feel for you. Brown has averaged a ridiculous 171 targets a season the last six seasons, so unless the Patriots decide to throw 45 times a game Edelman will be hardpressed to reach the nine targets a game he saw in 2018. White built his RB10, 17.3 points per game, season off the back of his receiving work in 2018. His 123 targets were the second most for a running back last year. With Brown and Gordon now on the roster expect White to fall back to a low-end RB2 finish. N’Keal Harry has become the forgotten man in New England. First, he was designated for the IR, though he’ll be able to return this season, then the Patriots scooped up every last uber-troubled/uber-talented wide receiver insight. This is the perfect time to buy low on Harry. Both Brown and Gordon will be free agents after this season. If both play to their potential the Patriots will not be able to afford to bring both back at full market value. If either or both go off the rails then the Patriots obviously wouldn’t roster them next season. Any way you slice it one, if not both, will be gone in 2020, and Harry can slide into a starter role.
– Shane Manila (@DFF_Shane)
There is no question about Brown’s immense talent. He is one of the best route runners in the league, he has recorded an NFL record 686 receptions in the last six seasons, and he is a four-time All-Pro first-team selection. The question at this point is attitude. The Pittsburgh Steelers traded him for cents on the dollar and a $21 million cap hit after the 2018 season. The Oakland Raiders cut him before he played a down of regular season football in 2019. Will New England be the place that allows him to return to his happy space, or will he become a distraction when the Patriots run the ball too much or target Josh Gordon too much for his liking? The other question is Tom Brady being 42 years old this season. This is not 2007 when Randy Moss joined the Patriots at the peak of Brady’s athletic career and produced a record-shattering season. This is 2019 and Brady is 42 years old and at the end of his career. Can Brady still throw the ball 45 times per game and be a prolific passer? He was not that last year as the Patriots morphed into a run-oriented offense that relied less on the pass in the second half of the season. My feeling is that Brown never wanted to play for Oakland because of the commitment to losing since 2003 and that he will not be a problem in New England needing a big season to rehab his image and earn another big contract. I also do not expect Brady to have 5,000 yards passing and 50 touchdown passes, but I think this team will be a much better passing team in 2019 than they were in 2018 now that their receiving core is rebuilt. Look for Brady to elevate from a low-end QB2 to a high-end QB2 to low-end QB1 and for Brown to be a low-end WR1 to high-end WR2 that will be the focal point of the passing offense led by the best quarterback in the history of the NFL. If Brown can be the Brown of past years and Brady can be the Brady of past years, the sky is the limit for both of them in 2019.
– Derek Lofland (@DerekLofland)
With so many people thinking that AB has finally gone crazy, the truth is he has taken a strange journey to basically let Oakland know he never wanted to play there. He wants to get paid, sure, but he wants to win more. I also think he was worried about being downgraded to a quarterback like Derek Carr and thus his dominance would have waned. Now through a series of oddities, he is on the best team in football. Fantasy-wise he won’t be Steeler AB but stands the chance of being a WR1 with Brady. Every other receiver on the Pats will be negatively affected, especially Julian Edelman. He looked like the de facto number one in the summertime but now will be third best while Gordon and Brown are on the field. Don’t be surprised if one of the latter does not make it to the end of the season. Brady gets the biggest upgrade out of everyone, though. With a corps like this, Brady could play at a high level for the next couple of years. I feel sorry the most for N’Keal Harry and UDFA Jakobi Meyers. They don’t look like either will make it on the field this year. Similarly, don’t be surprised if we see Gronk back. It would be more surprising if he didn’t come back now to join the party. If they weren’t before, the New England Patriots must be the unanimous favorites to win the Super Bowl yet again, keeping the dynasty alive.
– Marc Mathyk (@Masterjune70)
There certainly aren’t any guarantees about AB’s performance on his new team. His behavior is erratic, and he’s going to have to very quickly adjust to a new system, as well as a new coaching regime who won’t tolerate his antics. That being said, we are talking about the most talented receiver in the league. He’ll take over Josh Gordon’s spot as the WR1 on the outside. In 11 games last season, Gordon racked up 720 yards and three touchdowns on 40 receptions. If you extrapolate his results over 16 games, that puts him just over the 1,000-yard mark. While it will be difficult to match Gordon’s 18 yards per reception figure, with Brown’s talent, he can easily cross the 1,000-yard threshold and snag more than three touchdowns. On the downside, he’s not likely to get the same target share he had in Pittsburgh, as this is an offense with plenty of familiar weapons and a run-first mentality. His upside is capped, but it looks higher than it did in Oakland if things pan out the way the Patriots would like them to. All that to say, don’t expect him to finish as a top-five receiver, but a solid low-end WR1 isn’t out of the question. If you drafted him, it’s hard to find many other landing spots that you would be happier with. So sit back, and you’ll likely enjoy the ride that’s been a bumpy one so far.
– Taylor Lambert (@TaylorSLambert)
The Patriots will now have three-wide receiver sets that include Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, and Antonio Brown. Brown played 75 percent of his snaps from the outside for the Steelers last year and it’s unclear at the moment (most likely the outside) how the Patriots will utilize him. The Patriots have been able to get the best from troubled receivers before (Randy Moss) and should be able to incorporate Brown into what appears to be a highly-potent offense. Brown is a borderline WR1 in fantasy. He should only get better as the season progresses (if he keeps his head on straight) and gets more familiar with the Patriots’ offense. Besides Brown getting his wish out of Oakland granted, the other big winner is Tom Brady. He now gets one of the best wide receivers in the NFL to add to his arsenal of weapons. Everything is set up for Brady to finish as a top-10 fantasy quarterback in 2019.
– Brad Camara (@beerad30)
With Antonio Brown out of Oakland, a lot has changed for the fantasy world. For Brown, who showed up in the third round of most drafts, he gets bumped up to the first tier of wide receivers once again. He should shake out as a back-end WR1, maybe an early WR2. But his ceiling with the Patriots easily can take us back to Brown’s best fantasy seasons. For New England, this certainly hurts Josh Gordon and James White, more so the latter than the former. With Gronkowski retiring these were the lowest-hanging fruits to pick up more targets. Julian Edelman remains the same in PPR formats but could receive a slight downgrade for standard leagues. Overall, Edelman should keep his role and the share of targets he commands. Let’s not forget Sony Michel either. With more vertical threats for New England, running lanes should open up more often, increasing Michel’s fantasy stock marginally. Finally, Tom Brady should also receive a minor boost as well. Over in Oakland, things are likely to continue being slim for fantasy players. Tyrell Williams and Josh Jacobs should get an increase to their fantasy outputs. Williams’ usage should increase very little for fantasy, simply because Oakland’s offense is a mess and Jacobs is the true beneficiary of Brown’s departure. Derek Carr, who was already avoided in single-quarterback leagues, will certainly downgrade further. Lastly, if Denver’s defense is on your waiver-wire, they certainly have become a preferred streaming option for Week 1.
– Garett Thomas (@GarettThomas)
Can Antonio Brown just play some football? Brown is the newest member of the New England Patriots and the fantasy world is aflutter. Assume for a second that all of his public antics were an exit strategy from Oakland. One might say he just ran quite the escape route. Brown finds himself part of one of the best organizations/dynasties in the entire NFL. From a fantasy perspective, this will hurt the value and productivity of Josh Gordon and possibly James White. Gordon moves deeper down the depth chart and White might lose two-to-five touches a game with Brown now on the same team. Still, keep White in PPR leagues, but look for trade partners when it comes to Gordon. Julian Edelman will be fine. Edelman will still finish as the best receiver on the team, especially in PPR. Antonio Brown is an amazing receiver, but if Brown’s tomfoolery re-emerges in Foxboro, Bill Belichick will only put up with so much. Sell high on Antonio Brown now. There will be flashes of fantasy brilliance this season from Brown, but we might have to wait a few weeks to see it. By then it could be too late for those owners that stayed loyal to him.
– Andrew Liang (@whenpigskinfly)
From a fantasy perspective, Brown enters a New England receiving corps that has 165 vacated targets (29.7% target share) from last season. Josh Gordon (68 targets), who missed the last two regular-season games of the 2018 season, should see a slight uptick, but with an average targeted air yards of 14 yards, per Next Gen Stats, Gordon’s big-play ability doesn’t command triple-digit targets over the course of a season. Gordon accounted for 22.9% of New England’s Air Yards in just 11 games. That said, Julian Edelman (108 targets) is Brown’s biggest competition for targets since the former appeared in just 12 games because of a four-game suspension. Edelman has commanded at least 150 targets in the two seasons he’s played all 16 games, with now-retired Rob Gronkowski on the field as well. Don’t expect that with Brown, who isn’t eligible to play Week 1, but Brown shouldn’t expect to see the 169 targets (26.7% target share) that he saw last season with the Steelers either. Brown, who was fifth in Air Yards share last season (36.07) will help occupy the 1,812 Air Yards (40.5% share) vacated going into 2019. In addition, Brown’s 24 red-zone targets and 20 end-zone targets could help the Patriots replace Gronkowski in that area of the field and propel him to double-digit touchdowns in what figures to be an efficient offense. Brown will have a tough time getting to triple-digit receptions and 1,200-plus yards picking up the playbook and fitting into the offense on the fly, but it’s not out of the question for Tom Brady to now eclipse 600 pass attempts this season. Brady threw the ball 570 times last season (ninth-most), and the Patriots are known to adjust their offense to their current personnel. Enter the best wide receiver in football, who could see 110-130 targets. Don’t expect James White to sniff 123 targets this season.
– Josh Kellem (@joshuakellem)
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