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DRAFT NFL Lineup Advice: Week 4

Sep 27, 2019

Here’s a look at 10-team DRAFT lineup advice for Week 4 Sunday-only NFL contests. As a reminder, this contest doesn’t include the Thursday game, Sunday night game, or the Monday night game. I provide my rankings per position, a summary of each position, and I conclude the article with a sample draft to give you a sense of how to approach your DRAFT contests.

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Quarterback

Player Team Opponent Round
1. Patrick Mahomes KC @DET 1
2. Lamar Jackson BAL vs CLE 2
3. Russell Wilson SEA @ARI 3
4. Deshaun Watson HOU vs CAR 3
5. Philip Rivers LAC @MIA 3
6. Jared Goff LAR vs TB 5
7. Matt Ryan ATL vs TEN 5
8. Matthew Stafford DET vs KC 5
9. Tom Brady NE @BUF 5
10. Josh Allen BUF vs NE 5

 
For some strange reason, DRAFT has Lamar Jackson projected higher than Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is averaging just under 400 passing yards per game and 3.3 passing touchdowns per game with zero interceptions. I talk about him every week, but he needs to be toward the top of your draft board each and every week. I have him second overall to Christian McCaffrey.

Russell Wilson threw the ball 20 times Week 1 in a game where Cincy dominated time of possession 35-25 minutes. Week 2 saw Wilson’s pass attempts jump up to 35 against the Steelers. Then in Week 3, the Seahawks were trailing the Saints all game and Wilson threw the ball 50 times! This is clearly unsustainable and almost certainly will be his high for the season. In fact, this is the most attempts Russell Wilson has had in a game over his entire career. With Chris Carson fumbling the ball every game, Rashaad Penny banged up, and this defense being about as bad as it has been in his career, Wilson might average 35 passes a game in 2019. You can usually get him in the third round, and sometimes he even slips into the fourth round. He is my top value quarterback on the week, and I will probably end up with the most shares of him at the position.

Running Back

Player Team Opponent Round
1. Christian McCaffrey CAR @HOU 1
2. Austin Ekeler LAC @MIA 1
3. Derrick Henry TEN @ATL 1
4. David Johnson ARI vs SEA 2
5. Chris Carson SEA @ARI 2
6. Nick Chubb CLE @BAL 2
7. Kerryon Johnson DET vs KC 2
8. Mark Ingram BAL vs CLE 2
9. Todd Gurley LAR vs TB 3
10. Dalvin Cook MIN @CHI 3
11. Marlon Mack IND vs OAK 3
12. Leonard Fournette JAX @DEN 3
13. LeSean McCoy KC @DET 3
14. James White NE @BUF 4
15. Josh Jacobs OAK @IND 4
16. Adrian Peterson WSH @NYG 4
17. Justin Jackson LAC @MIA 4
18. Devonta Freeman ATL vs TEN 5
19. David Montgomery CHI vs MIN 5
20. Phillip Lindsay DEN vs JAX 5

 
It has been a strange start to the 2019 fantasy season for running backs. There are about 10 running backs that can be trusted week in and week out to be top producers. Outside of these guys, it is a mess. There are timeshare issues, fumble issues, offensive inefficiency issues, and even some talent issues with guys who were drafted to be an RB1 or RB2. I generally like to take running backs early in these contests, but this week is shaping up a little differently.

LeSean McCoy sits at running back 13 for me currently. If Damien Williams is declared out, McCoy would jump into my top 10. If Williams is out and McCoy bumps up to a full practice, I would move him up to running back seven. As it is now, I am comfortable taking him in the late third round or early fourth round. Kansas City at Detroit is a game I am trying to load up on in weekly contests.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Player Team Opponent Round
1. Julio Jones ATL vs TEN 1
2. DeAndre Hopkins HOU vs CAR 1
3. Keenan Allen LAC @MIA 1
4. Sammy Watkins KC @DET 1
5. Odell Beckham Jr. CLE @BAL 1
6. Tyler Lockett SEA @ARI 1
7. Travis Kelce KC @DET 2
8. Cooper Kupp LAR vs TB 2
9. Kenny Golladay DET vs KC 2
10. Brandin Cooks LAR vs TB 2
11. Julian Edelman NE @BUF 3
12. Mike Evans TB @LAR 3
13. Chris Godwin TB @LAR 4
14. Evan Engram NYG vs WSH 4
15. Larry Fitzgerald ARI vs SEA 4
16. Robert Woods LAR vs TB 4
17. Sterling Shepard NYG vs WSH 4
18. Terry McLaurin WSH @NYG 4
19. Calvin Ridley ATL vs TEN 5
20. Josh Gordon NE @BUF 5

 
There is a lot to like this week with wide receivers and tight ends. DeAndre Hopkins is projected as the eighth-best wide receiver/tight end this week on DRAFT. He has the potential to blow up at any time for double-digit targets and multiple touchdowns. Snag him in the second round every time you can. I just did a draft where I got Sammy Watkins with the 3.10 pick. This is the only time I have seen him go this late, but he is there at the end of the second or early third fairly often. I have him ranked as a first-round pick, but you don’t need to take him there most of the time. Kenny Golladay is the number one receiver in a Detroit offense that should be able to move the ball (and will likely need to) against a porous Kansas City defense. Like Watkins, I don’t have to take him where I have him ranked. He is often available in the fourth round, but I have taken him in the third when I don’t like any of the other options available.

It is a week where my rankings are very different than the DRAFT projections and the average draft positions I am seeing. Because of this, I find myself taking running backs earlier than I have them ranked and waiting to get receivers until the third, fourth, or even fifth rounds in some drafts. This is where you need to decide if you want to follow your rankings to a tee or take other players early if you think you have a high probability to get your top-ranked guy in the next round.

Sample Draft

My pick: 10th

1st round – Derrick Henry (RB – TEN)
This is my ideal pick if I am at the end of the first round. Henry and Dion Lewis are splitting snaps which is concerning, but Henry has out-touched Lewis 55-14.

2nd round – DeAndre Hopkins (WR – HOU)
Hopkins was the consensus WR1 in season-long drafts this year for a reason. Take him at his discount this week.

3rd round – Sammy Watkins (WR – KC)
I was shocked that Watkins fell all the way to the bottom of the third round. Detroit’s top cornerback Darius Slay is banged up at best and could potentially miss this game Sunday.

4th round – LeSean McCoy (RB – KC)
It is very annoying that McCoy has four capital letters in his name, but he is a great option this week with Williams banged up (Williams missed practice Wednesday).

5th round – Matthew Stafford (QB – DET)
Stafford has looked good this year, and he should be in a position to throw the ball 35-40 times this weekend.

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Steven Roy is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Steven, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Rockhead_Roy.

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1Christian McCaffrey (CAR)RB
2Dalvin Cook (MIN)RB
3Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)RB
4Josh Jacobs (OAK)RB
5Leonard Fournette (JAC)RB
6Melvin Gordon (LAC)RB
7Nick Chubb (CLE)RB
8Tyreek Hill (KC)WR
9Alvin Kamara (NO)RB
10Michael Thomas (NO)WR
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11James Conner (PIT)RB
12Marlon Mack (IND)RB
13Le'Veon Bell (NYJ)RB
14Mike Evans (TB)WR
15DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)WR
16Tevin Coleman (SF)RB
17Julio Jones (ATL)WR
18Damien Williams (KC)RB
19Brian Hill (ATL)RB
20Mark Ingram (BAL)RB
21Devin Singletary (BUF)RB
22Amari Cooper (DAL)WR
23Todd Gurley (LAR)RB
24Chris Godwin (TB)WR
25Joe Mixon (CIN)RB
26Cooper Kupp (LAR)WR
27Julian Edelman (NE)WR
28Keenan Allen (LAC)WR
29D.J. Moore (CAR)WR
30John Brown (BUF)WR
1Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)LF,CF
2Nolan Arenado (COL)3B
3Mookie Betts (BOS)CF,RF
4J.D. Martinez (BOS)LF,RF
5Trevor Story (COL)SS
6Justin Verlander (HOU)SP
7Cody Bellinger (LAD)1B,CF
8Trea Turner (WSH)SS
9Alex Bregman (HOU)3B,SS
10Jacob deGrom (NYM)SP
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11Max Scherzer (WSH)SP
12Francisco Lindor (CLE)SS
13Gerrit Cole (FA)SP
14Freddie Freeman (ATL)1B
15Javier Baez (CHC)2B,3B
16Charlie Blackmon (COL)CF
17Aaron Judge (NYY)RF,DH
18Juan Soto (WSH)LF
19Anthony Rendon (FA)3B
20Bryce Harper (PHI)CF,RF
21Jose Altuve (HOU)2B
22Xander Bogaerts (BOS)SS
23Starling Marte (PIT)CF
24Walker Buehler (LAD)SP
25Manny Machado (SD)3B,SS
26Anthony Rizzo (CHC)1B
27Kris Bryant (CHC)3B,RF
28Whit Merrifield (KC)1B,2B
29George Springer (HOU)CF,RF
30Paul Goldschmidt (STL)1B
1Anthony Davis (LAL)PF,C
2James Harden (HOU)PG,SG
3Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)SF,PF
4Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN)C
5Kevin Durant (BKN)SF,PF
6LeBron James (LAL)SF,PF
7Stephen Curry (GSW)PG,SG
8Nikola Jokic (DEN)PF,C
9Damian Lillard (POR)PG
10Russell Westbrook (HOU)PG
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11Victor Oladipo (IND)PG,SG
12Paul George (LAC)SF,PF
13Joel Embiid (PHI)PF,C
14Kawhi Leonard (LAC)SG,SF
15Chris Paul (OKC)PG
16Jimmy Butler (MIA)SG,SF
17Kemba Walker (BOS)PG
18Ben Simmons (PHI)PG,SF
19Kyrie Irving (BKN)PG,SG
20Jrue Holiday (NOR)PG,SG
21Rudy Gobert (UTH)C
22Andre Drummond (DET)PF,C
23John Wall (WAS)PG
24Kyle Lowry (TOR)PG
25Donovan Mitchell (UTH)PG,SG
26Khris Middleton (MIL)SG,SF
27Bradley Beal (WAS)SG
28Kevin Love (CLE)PF,C
29Draymond Green (GSW)PF,C
30LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS)PF,C
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