DraftKings Market Watch: Week 2

Sep 10, 2019

Gurley’s price predictably plummeted this week

Here are the players that have seen the largest value fluctuation from last week to this week on the DraftKings main slate. Depending on the situation, we may be able to exploit this information and take advantage of the fact that the player’s salary increased or decreased significantly from last week.

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Quarterbacks

Gardner Minshew (JAX): $4,800 @ HOU (+$800)
Unfortunately, we found out the hard way who Nick Foles backup was in Jacksonville. Foles is going to be out for quite some time with a broken clavicle. Minshew completed 22 of 25 passes for 275 yards. He also had two touchdowns and an interception. This was good for 18.6 DKFP, which was 13th best on the main slate. He looked good coming in cold off the bench. He led the nation in passing yards in 2018 at Washington State as he finished fifth in the Heisman balloting. The Jags are still a big question mark this year. I wouldn’t play him in GPPs because I am not sure that he (nor the Jags) are potent enough to give you a ceiling game. However, I do think he can meet value at this very low price point if you need to save salary to pay up at another position.

Jared Goff (LAR): $5,900 vs. NO (-$300)
It was a very sub-par performance for Goff Sunday on the road against the Panthers as he completed only 22 of 39 passes for 186 yards. He also had one touchdown and one interception for a total of 10.4 DKFP. This week’s game is projected to be high scoring as the Saints come to town. He threw for 391 yards and 297 yards last year when both games were on the road in New Orleans. I like this as a bounce-back spot at home. This is a nice value price for Goff if you are trying to save money.

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook (MIN): $7,200 @ GB (+$1,200)
Cook was grossly underpriced last week and performed exactly as we would have hoped. Cook ended the game with two touchdowns and 111 yards on 21 carries for a total of 29.0 DKFP. However, I am going to proceed with caution this week. He is facing a Packers defense that just bottled up the Bears RBs and did a number on Cook (and Latavius Murray) last year. Cook only rushed for 67 total yards on 20 carries in the two games against the Packers last year. None of this will keep me from playing him because this Mike Zimmer offense is all about establishing the run and Cook is definitely the bell cow back. But just realize that he is not an automatic plug-and-play this week like he was last week.

Todd Gurley (LAR): $7,000 vs. NO (-$900)
This is just a situation with a lot of unknowns. Sean McVay said that Gurley was healthy and would have his normal workload and then went out and essentially split the carries (13-to-11) between Gurley and Malcolm Brown. Brown also got two rushing touchdowns. I am going to pass on Gurley, even at a discounted price, until I have more confidence in this situation.

Wide Receivers

Sammy Watkins (KAN): $7,200 @ OAK (+$2,200)
He has never been a consistent receiver but let’s not overthink this. Tyreek Hill is out, their opponent is the dysfunctional Raiders, and he is coming off a week in which he led the NFL in fantasy production. His price tag is still too low for this week. I certainly don’t expect three touchdowns from him again (though only the 49ers gave up more WR touchdowns last year than the Raiders) but matching his 11 targets from Week 1 is certainly a likely outcome. He may not be elite, but his situation is elite as the top WR on the top offense coming off of a 9-198-3 day. Even getting half of his 49.8 DKFP from this week would return his value at this price. Play him.

Stefon Diggs (MIN): $6,300 @ GB (-$400)
He was bothered by a hamstring going into the Atlanta game last week and then only had two targets as Mike Zimmer’s offense only threw 10 times. Those two things might be the reason the price went down. He won’t be anywhere close to my cash games until we have more clarity about his role in this offense and his injury, but he is one of the most talented players in the NFL. He is will be a strong GPP option for me as he went for 38.9 and 22.9 DKFP last year against Green Bay. His total stat line was 17-205-3 on 24 targets.

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews (BAL): $3,800 vs. ARI (+$800)
His 27.8 DKFP was third among all TEs on the DK main slate this past Sunday. T.J. Hockenson was second with 28.1 DFFP. That fact is important because it came against the same Arizona Cardinals team that Baltimore plays at home this week. Andrews caught all eight of his targets for 108 yards and a touchdown. Though the TE position always carries some variance to it, he is a decent value option this week even at the price increase. The one concern I have is that Baltimore likes to split snaps at play a number of TEs. Andrews is the top guy but his volume may not be consistent from week to week.

* There are no significant TE decreases worth mentioning this week

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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.

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