The NFL regular season is upon us, and that means big GPP prize pools at DraftKings. The first week is the biggest week for speculation after offseason player and coaching changes across the league and no meaningful games to evaluate. The touted plays this week include a mix of established top-shelf talent as well as speculation on, namely, a couple of wideouts taking a step forward in year two. One of the sophomore receivers suggested below has a chance to be a No. 1 receiver in a dynamic offense, and he’s part of a four-man game stack (two players from each team). That quartet is joined by a workhorse back who’s almost certainly going to be chalky, but one who’s in a spot to smash value. The final suggested play is a sophomore slot wideout who’s a huge bargain at only $400 above the minimum salary for a receiver.
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Cam Newton (QB – CAR): $6,500 vs. Rams
D.J. Moore (WR – CAR): $5,500 vs. Rams
Brandin Cooks (WR – LAR): $6,500 at Panthers
Robert Woods (WR – LAR): $6,400 at Panthers
The Rams at Panthers has a shot at being a track meet, and I’m obviously banking on that being the case suggesting a four-man stack from that contest. According to DraftKings sportsbook, the game’s spread is only one point favoring the visiting Rams, and the over/under total is a scintillating 50 points. On Sunday’s main slate, the total is the third-highest.
First, let me address the elephant in the room. Newton suffered a midfoot sprain in the preseason, but he’s reportedly looked good in practice according to numerous sources and is in no danger of missing the contest. With that out of the way, he’s surrounded by a talented group of playmakers including Christian McCaffrey, Curtis Samuel, Greg Olsen, and his stack partner above, D.J. Moore.
Last year, Newton opened up like gangbusters before struggling to play through a shoulder injury (one that required surgery). In Newton’s games from Week 1 through Week 9 last year, he was the fourth-highest scoring fantasy quarterback, per Pro-Football-Reference.
On the flip side, Moore came on strong as his playing time and role grew in his rookie campaign. He first eclipsed 50% of Carolina’s offensive snaps in Week 8. In his final 10 games starting in Week 8, Moore totaled 64 targets, 42 receptions, 597 receiving yards, and one touchdown reception. His touchdowns are due for positive regression, but his receiving work also doesn’t tell the whole story. Moore also ripped off 126 rushing yards on nine carries in his last 10 games.
The matchup is positive for Moore, too. Football Outsiders (FO) ranked the Rams 28th defending No. 1 receivers, and they sat in the middle of the pack tied for the 15th most DraftKings points per game yielded to receivers last year. Also, if the Rams are able to dictate the pace of the game, Newton and Moore will benefit from the Rams’ ranking third in FO’s situational neutral pace of play measure as you can see here.
The Rams are the favorites in this contest, so it stands to reason having pieces of their offense should prove fruitful. Cooper Kupp‘s recovery from his torn ACL is generating tons of buzz, and Todd Gurley‘s health remains a popular topic of discussion in fantasy circles. I’ll have some exposure to both in GPPs this week, but Cooks and Woods are fantastic players without any health concerns. Furthermore, Kupp’s return should help the Rams move the ball easier, and a high tide raises all ships.
Cooks’ elite speed makes him a home-run threat, and the Panthers allowed the sixth most 40-plus yard receptions (12) last year. Cooks is a volatile option with a low floor and a high ceiling. In 2018, he failed to eclipse 60 receiving yards or score a touchdown in five games. He also, however, had five games over 100 receiving yards, and he added a multi-touchdown game on five grabs for 62 yards, too. The ceiling’s built for GPPs.
Woods is a model of consistency, but his ceiling is high as well. Before diving into Woods’ receiving exploits, it’s worth noting that like the aforementioned Moore, he, too, added value running the ball with 157 rushing yards and a touchdown on 19 attempts. As for Woods’ receiving work, he was targeted five or more times in all but a meaningless Week 17 contest last year, and he bested 60 receiving yards in all but the same meaningless contest and the season opener. He totaled at least 70 receiving yards in 12 of 16 games, and he flashed his upside in back-to-back contests last September ripping off a 10-104-2 line with 13 rushing yards against the Chargers in Week 3 and a 5-101-1 line in Week 4 against the Vikings.
The matchup is tasty for both Cooks and Woods. The Panthers ceded the seventh-most DraftKings fantasy points to wideouts in 2018. FO’s ranks for the Panthers defending receivers were mixed with them ranking fifth defending No. 1 receivers, 15th defending “Other” receivers, and dead last defending No. 2 receivers. I’m optimistic this game will be a high-scoring, fun, back-and-forth affair, and this quartet offers the type of ceiling collectively that can be the backbone of a GPP winning lineup.
Dalvin Cook (RB – MIN): $6,000 vs. Falcons
Cook offers the perfect storm of generating fantasy excitement. He received positive reports during the preseason, and he flashed his elite playmaking ability on this 85-yard touchdown rush. Cook also closed last year with an impressive three-game stretch after Kevin Stefanski took over as the offensive coordinator. Those two factors drive recency bias and will lead to ownership for Cook, but his bargain salary and a matchup with the notoriously giving to running backs defense of the Falcons will cement him as a chalk play this week.
Atlanta’s surrendered the most receptions to running backs each of the last four seasons. During that four-year stretch, three times they’ve allowed a top-five DraftKings per game scoring total to backs. The Vikings are a four-point home favorite with an implied team over/under total of 26 points. Cook is my favorite play at any position this week.
Trey Quinn (WR – WAS): $3,400 at Eagles
Washington’s going to be bad this year. It’s likely to start right out of the chute. They’re the biggest underdogs of the week getting 10 points in Philadelphia. Their implied total is an ugly 17.75 points. They’re highly unlikely to be a treasure trove of daily fantasy goodness, but a negative game script should suit their second-year slot wideout well.
Quinn was a monster in his final college season with SMU before being popped with the last pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Daniel Rymer of Pro Football Focus (PFF) dove into Quinn’s prolific production that season. His rookie season lasted only three games (two starts) due to injury. In his two starts last year, he posted lines of 4-49-0 and 5-26-1 on 10 targets between the two games.
Those numbers play at his near-min salary for a receiver, but there’s upside for more against a Philadelphia defense that was exceptionally giving to receivers last year. In 2018, they were tied for the third-most DraftKings points per game to wideouts. FO ranked them 15th against No. 1 receivers, 22nd versus No. 2 receivers, and 16th against “Other” receivers. If you’re looking to load up on studs, Quinn’s my favorite bargain option in Week 1 and offers major salary relief.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
