DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 2
The backbone of this week’s GPP advice is a four-man game stack. The game stack features a trio from one high-flying offense and one player from the opposition. Additionally, it’s a rare instance of me suggesting using two tight ends in a GPP lineup. They’re joined by a No. 1 receiver who commanded a huge target share in the opener and one of the game’s best running backs in a projected shootout.
The defending NFL MVP, Patrick Mahomes, torched the Jaguars for 378 passing yards and three touchdowns while completing 25 of 33 passes. He’s the highest priced signal-caller this week by $800 over Week 1 darling Lamar Jackson. Even with an ankle sprain, no one’s sleeping on Mahomes in a mouthwatering matchup with the Raiders. Mahomes and the Chiefs have a fantasy-friendly implied team over/under total of 30.25 points, per DraftKings sportsbook. In two games against the Raiders last year, Mahomes averaged 288 passing yards and three touchdown passes. I don’t really need to add anything to sell you on Mahomes.
Kelce’s case for usage is pretty cut and dry, too. In the season opener, he hauled in three of eight targets for 88 receiving yards, and Mahomes cost him a touchdown overshooting him on a wide open play in the end zone.
In Kansas City’s first meeting with the Raiders last year, Kelce thumped them for a 12-168-2 line on 13 targets. In a blowout in the second meeting, he reeled in five of nine targets for 62 receiving yards. He’s the unquestioned top dog in the passing attack with Tyreek Hill hurt — with all due respect to Sammy Watkins off of a big game. The matchup is a plus for Kelce. In 2018, the Raiders served up the sixth-most DraftKings points per game to tight ends, according to Pro-Football-Reference. Kelce’s gonna eat.
Circling back to Hill’s injury, the door is open to rookie speedster Mecole Hardman earning looks. In Week 1, the Raiders yielded a 7-120-0 line on eight targets to Courtland Sutton and coughed up a 5-86-1 line to Emmanuel Sanders on seven targets. Denver’s offense didn’t look sharp, and Joe Flacco isn’t Mahomes, yet the receivers still pantsed Oakland’s secondary. Hardman’s an elite burner, and his 4.33-second 40-yard dash at this year’s NFL Draft Combine was tied for the fifth fastest mark among receivers.
Oakland’s secondary might be down starting corner Gareon Conley (4.44-second 40-yard dash), though he expects to give it a go. If he were out, that would leave Daryl Worley (4.64-second 40-yard dash) and Lamarcus Joyner (4.55-second 40-yard dash) as the healthy starting corners in their nickel defense from the opener and rookie second-round pick Trayvon Mullen (4.46-second 40-yard dash) as the next man up. They also lost rookie first-round pick, safety Johnathan Abram, to injured reserve with a torn labrum and rotator cuff. There’s more to defending straightline speed than having corners with blistering 40-yard dash times, and there’s a difference between running a fast 40-yard dash and play speed with pads on, but Hardman’s jets with Mahomes’ strong arm against a defense that was just beaten up by Sutton and Sanders is a tantalizing combo in theory. Toss in the injuries to the secondary, and Mahomes, Kelce, and Hardman should all thrive.
Waller has a good shot at being the chalkiest option of this quartet as a complete bargain coming off of a 7-70-0 line on eight targets in the second half of the Monday Night Football doubleheader in Week 1. Training camp and preseason featured tons of buzz around Waller, and he delivered the goods in Week 1. He played 100% of Oakland’s snaps in the opener, and he has a dreamy matchup this week. In 2018, the Chiefs coughed up the most DraftKings points per game to tight ends. The unexciting combo of James O’Shaugnessy and Geoff Swaim from the Jaguars combined for eight receptions for 49 receiving yards on nine targets in Week 1. Waller’s a considerably better weapon in the passing attack than either of those two, and he’s my favorite bargain option this week by a wide margin.
John Brown (WR – BUF): $5,200 at Giants
Brown’s first regular-season game with the Bills seemingly couldn’t have gone better. He scored the game-winning touchdown on a 38-yard reception, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Smokey caught seven of 10 targets for 123 yards and the game-winning touchdown. According to Sports Info Solutions, Brown’s seven receptions came on seven catchable balls. He truly made the most of his opportunities. His receiving yards accounted for nearly half of Josh Allen’s 254 passing yards, and he was the most-targeted member of the Bills. He’ll take aim at a Giants’ secondary that allowed receiving lines of 4-69-1 on five targets to Randall Cobb, 6-106-1 on nine targets to Amari Cooper, and 7-158-0 on seven targets to Michael Gallup last week. If Week 1 is an indication of Brown’s rapport with Allen, he’s an underpriced target hog. At the least, last week showcased Brown has GPP-friendly upside with his new strong-armed quarterback.
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO): $8,200 at Rams
The second-highest over/under on the main slate is found in Los Angeles. The game’s over/under total between the Saints and host Rams is 52.5 points, and the spread is only two points favoring the hosts. That leaves the Saints’ implied team over/under total at a healthy 26.25 points in a game that bettors are projecting to be a shootout. The Rams are coming off of a 30-27 victory in Carolina, and the Saints squeaked by the Texans in a 30-28 shootout. It’s easy to see why bettors expect both of these high-powered offenses to hang points in bunches.
In Week 1, the Rams had no answer for Christian McCaffrey. Carolina’s do-it-all stud ripped off 128 rushing yards and a pair of scores on 19 carries and added a 10-81-0 line on 11 targets. Kamara’s cut from the same do-it-all cloth as CMC, and he amassed 97 rushing yards on 13 carries and a 7-72-0 line on eight targets in his first game of the year (ignore the fumble in the box score that wasn’t lost, replay showed the officiating crew were clueless ruling it a fumble).
Kamara’s faced the Rams three times in his career, and he’s balled out to varying degrees in each of those games as you can see here. His per-game averages for the three contests (two regular season as well as last year’s NFC Championship game) are 10.67 rushes, 61.33 rushing yards (5.75 yards per carry), 8.0 targets, 7.0 receptions, and 77.0 receiving yards. He’s also reached pay dirt five times against the Rams. Kamara’s easily my favorite pick of the top-dollar backs, and I’ll be overweight in exposure to him in GPPs this weekend.