DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 3
I’m going to shake up the presentation a bit this week, and open with a one-off bargain player with home-run upside. He’s joined by a two-man game stack that’s likely to be chalky. The touted players are closed with a three-man stack featuring a rookie quarterback and his two slot receivers.
Devin Smith (WR – DAL): $3,400 vs. Dolphins
You’re forgiven if you saw Smith’s name in the box score and went, “that Devin Smith?” The Jets selected Smith 37th overall at the beginning of the second round of the 2015 NFL Draft. He spent his first two years in the NFL with the Jets, and he didn’t play a regular-season game in 2017 or 2018. Smith failed to make a box score appearance in Dallas’ opener, but he popped for a 3-74-1 line in Washington in Week 2.
The Cowboys have been an exceptionally explosive offense, and they’ve eclipsed 30 points in each of their first two games. They should make it three in a row this week, and the 21.5-point favored Cowboys have an implied team over/under total of 34.5 points, per DraftKings sportsbook, against the tanking Dolphins.
Smith’s path to some extra looks has been cleared by an injury to Michael Gallup’s knee that will sideline him for a few weeks. I wouldn’t advise counting on him being a target hog, but he doesn’t need to be in order to provide a major return on his minimal salary this week. He demonstrated that on his 51-yard touchdown reception last week.
— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2019
Smith has tantalizing measurables, as you can see on his PlayerProfiler page. His game-changing speed should play well against a pathetic Dolphins squad. The Dolphins have yielded 19 receptions for 327 receiving yards (17.2 yards per reception) and four receiving touchdowns to receivers this season, per Pro-Football-Reference. Furthermore, their 10 receptions allowed of 20-plus yards is tied for the fourth most coughed up this year, according to NFL.com. I’m overweight on Smith exposure in GPPs this week, and I love the big-play wideout as a bargain option.
Sammy Watkins (WR – KC): $6,800 vs. Ravens
Mark Andrews (TE – BAL): $4,600 at Chiefs
The Ravens at Chiefs matchup is highly anticipated this weekend, and the track-meet potential (slate-high over/under total of 55 points) is going to result in love from the daily fantasy gaming community in the way of ownership for key pieces in that contest. You’re not getting a contrarian ownership edge using the combo of Watkins and Andrews, but the upside — especially relative to their price — is dreamy.
Watkins scorched the Jaguars in Week 1 to the tune of a 9-198-3 line on 11 targets. He was unable to duplicate that success against the Raiders and his six receptions for 49 receiving yards was a letdown. What wasn’t a letdown was his 13 targets in that contest. Watkins’ 32.5% target share is the fifth highest in the NFL this year, according to Sports Info Solutions.
He’s my favorite non-Patrick Mahomes piece of exposure to Kansas City’s implied team over/under total of 31 points. Throw out Baltimore’s dominant performance against Miami’s dreadful offense in Week 1. In Week 2, though, a couple of forthcoming slot receivers both hit triple-digit yardage totals against the Ravens. Watkins has played the slot 53.2% of the time this year, making him the best-positioned receiver on the Chiefs to pummel the Ravens.
On the opposite side of this game stack is the hyper-efficient Andrews. In the opener, he went 8-108-1 on eight targets, yet he was even more impressive last week, going 8-112-1 on nine targets. Among all players targeted a minimum of 65 times since last year, Andrews’ 15.44 yards per reception is 13th highest and tops among tight ends (ahead of George Kittle’s mark of 15.0 yards per reception), per Pro-Football-Reference’s Play Index tool.
The Chiefs make for a drool-inducing matchup for the talented sophomore tight end. Last year, the Chiefs coughed up the most DraftKings points per game to tight ends. Thus far this year, they’ve yielded the eighth-most Draftings points per game to tight ends despite playing Jacksonville’s lackluster tight end group in Week 1. I love Marquise Brown in this contest as well, but Andrews is easily my favorite pick from the Ravens’ side of this potential shootout.
Kyler Murray (QB – ARI): $5,800 vs. Panthers
Larry Fitzgerald (WR – ARI): $5,100 vs. Panthers
Christian Kirk (WR – ARI): $5,000 vs. Panthers
Finding an under-the-radar shootout can go a long way toward ascending to the top of a GPP, and that’s what we have in the desert. The game’s over/under total between the Cardinals and visiting Panthers is only 44 points. The Cardinals are 2.5-point favorites against the probably Cam Newton-less Panthers and have an implied team over/under total of 23.25 points. None of those gambling numbers are particularly attention-grabbing.
What is worth a look is the pace numbers at Football Outsiders (FO). The Panthers have run plays at the fastest pace this year, followed directly by the Cardinals in second. Carolina slips to sixth in situation neutral pace, but the Cardinals remain in second.
Could the Panthers slow things down for backup quarterback Kyle Allen? Maybe. However, if they keep playing at a break-neck pace, this game has major fantasy-scoring potential, which brings us to the three-man stack of Murray/Fitzgerald/Kirk.
Through two weeks, Murray leads the league in pass attempts (94) and ranks fourth in passing yards (657). He’s thrown only two touchdown passes, but he hasn’t been a turnover machine (only one interception). The rookie got off to a dreadful start, but woke up as the opener went on and improved in the second game. He hasn’t really used his running ability with only six carries for 17 yards, but he has the speed and ability should the opportunity present itself.
The matchup is good for him to take another step forward this week. The Panthers have tied for the 10th-most DraftKings points per game yielded to quarterbacks this season, per Pro-Football-Reference. FO ranks the Panthers 19th in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average against the pass this year.
Carolina’s been completely inept defending slot receivers this year, which is ideal for Arizona’s pair of slot wideouts, Fitz and Kirk. Sharp Football Stats credits the Cardinals with using 10 personnel (four wide receivers) on 64% of their plays. As a result of having four wideouts on the field together so frequently, Kirk has been able to play the slot 76.2% of the time and Fitz has played the slot 85.9% of the time this year as well, per PlayerProfiler.
These two were the teased duo of slot receivers who creamed Baltimore’s secondary in Week 2, and Fitz went for a 5-104-0 line on 11 targets while Kirk was good for 6-114-0 on eight targets. In Week 1, the Panthers allowed a 7-46-0 line on 10 targets to Cooper Kupp, and in the Thursday Night Football game in Week 2, Chris Godwin rocked them for an 8-121-1 line on nine targets.
The Panthers are no strangers to getting whooped by slot receivers, either. Last year, Tyler Boyd (6-132-1), Sterling Shepard (4-75-0), Adam Humphries (8-82-2 and 7-61-1), JuJu Smith-Schuster (3-90-1), and Jarvis Landry (3-57-1) all laid the wood to them in varying degrees. This three-man stack is cheap and has an extremely high ceiling. I’ll gladly build many GPP rosters around this group while sprinkling in pricier studs at the other positions.