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DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 4

DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 4

This week’s DraftKings GPP lineup suggestions features three two-man stacks. The first is a quarterback and wide receiver pairing that’s on the same page and in a dream matchup. The other two stacks are game stacks feature a running back and a pass-catching opponent.

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Russell Wilson (QB – SEA): $6,100 at Cardinals
Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA): $6,300 at Cardinals

The final margin of loss for the Seahawks last week doesn’t tell the whole story. In fact, it’s a bit misleading. The Seahawks were whooped at home, and two touchdowns with under three minutes left in the game (including a touchdown on the final play of regulation) made the game look closer than it was. Falling behind quickly prompted Wilson to air it out often, and he was excellent, completing 32 of 50 passes for two touchdowns and 406 passing yards. He also added 51 rushing yards on seven rushes along with two more scores on the ground.

He’s in a great matchup to post huge numbers again. Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Cardinals 22nd in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), and they’re more giving through the air (ranking 23rd in DVOA against the pass) than they are on the ground (ranking 19th in DVOA against the run). The Cardinals have yielded the third-most DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks, and they’ve coughed up an NFL-high 141 rushing yards (next highest is 89 rushing yards) to quarterbacks this season, per Pro-Football-Reference. Yes, the Cardinals did face Lamar Jackson, but so have the Dolphins and Chiefs, and the Cardinals have given up far and away the most rushing yards to quarterbacks.

As for Wilson, he’s riding back-to-back games of 300 passing yards or more, and Wilson’s thrown multiple touchdowns in each game (eight total this year) and hasn’t thrown an interception. The Cardinals were just torched by Kyle Allen for 261 passing yards and four touchdown passes on 26 pass attempts, and, with all due respect to Allen, Wilson’s a superior quarterback.

Lockett’s been a stud and Wilson’s top option through three games. He ranks tied for 13th in targets (28), seventh in receptions (22), and tied for ninth in receiving yards per game (92.3) while reeling in a pair of touchdowns. The Cardinals’ defense is getting a ton of attention for getting spanked by tight ends — and I do like Will Dissly ($3,600) this week — but without Patrick Peterson in their secondary, while he serves a four-game suspension, they’re ill-equipped to slow down a receiver like Lockett.

The Seahawks are 5-point favorites with an implied team over/under total of 26.5 points, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. That’s a robust total to get a piece of with Wilson and Lockett, but they also get a bump up in value from Arizona’s pace of play speeding things up and increasing the potential for plays run for any of their opponents. FootbalOutsiders ranks them first in pace and first in situation neutral pace, meaning they’re taking the least amount of time between plays of any team this season.

Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR): $8,800 at Texans
Kenny Stills (WR – HOU): $4,200 vs Panthers

Sticking on the theme of pace of play, ranking behind the Cardinals in overall pace of play this year are the Panthers. They rank a bit lower at ninth in situation neutral pace of play, but they’re playing at a break-neck pace. Toss in Allen’s competence and the offense’s overall explosion last week, and the scoring upside appears to be high for the Panthers, headlined by their do-it-all back McCaffrey.

McCaffrey’s 450 yards from scrimmage this season are second to only Dalvin Cook’s 454 yards from scrimmage. He’s averaging 106.0 rushing yards per game, and he’s bested 125 rushing yards in two of three games. CMC remains an integral part of the passing attack, too, with 15 receptions on 21 targets this year. Last week, McCaffrey manhandled the Cardinals to the tune of 153 rushing yards and a touchdown on 24 carries as well as three receptions on four targets for 35 receiving yards. It’s promising to see Allen throw four of his 26 passes in his stud back’s direction.

CMC’s receiving chops should be on full display against a Houston defense that’s allowed the second-most receptions (24) and sixth-most receiving yards (165) to backs. Oh, and the Texans have been giving on the ground, too, ceding an eye-popping 5.06 yards per carry to backs. CMC’s gonna eat.

Speaking of eating, that’s what slot receivers have done against the Panthers thus far this year and for much of last season. Last week, I rattled off examples of the Panthers getting smoked by slot receivers, and you can check those out here. Against the Cardinals, they allowed a 10-59-0 line to Christian Kirk on 12 targets and a 5-36-1 line to Larry Fitzgerald on seven targets.

Stills appears to have unseated Keke Coutee as the No. 3 receiver for the Texans. Last week, he played 53% of Houston’s offensive snaps behind only the matching 97% posted by DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. Coutee played just 28% of Houston’s offensive snaps. For the season, Stills has played the slot 57.5% of the time, according to PlayerProfiler.

Stills opened the year with a 3-37-1 line on three targets, caught two of three targets for 38 yards in Week 2, and then reeled in four of six targets for 89 receiving yards last week. Stills has hauled in all nine of his catchable balls, per Sports Info Solutions. The burner is being targeted deep downfield with an average depth of target of 15.5 yards that’s 18th deepest out of receivers and tight ends targeted at least of five times. Furthermore, despite less playing time than many of the players ahead of him (last week’s 57.5% of offensive snaps played is Stills’ high for a game this year), Stills’ 138 completed air yards is tied for 32nd with John Ross.

His elite speed (4.38-second 40-yard dash time at the NFL Draft Combine) should give Ross Cockrell fits from the slot. The veteran corner ran an unimpressive 4.56-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Draft Combine. The game’s over/under total of 47 points feels a bit light. I noted Carolina’s pace of play above, which will provide a value boost for Houston’s offensive players. I also wouldn’t worry too much about Houston ranking 24th in pace of play overall dragging the value of players down, as their rank of 10th in situation neutral pace of play is more promising for a track meet breaking out.

Marlon Mack (RB – IND): $6,100 vs. Raiders
Darren Waller (TE – OAK): $5,200 at Colts

Mack’s been a complete workhorse this season. He’s hit the 20-carry threshold in two of three games with 16 carries as his low-water mark. He’s also caught a pair of passes in each of the last two games, helping bolster his season-low touch total in his last game to a still hearty 18 touches. He’s eclipsed 60 yards from scrimmage in all three games, and he’s bested 85 yards from scrimmage in two of three. He’s also scored a touchdown in two of three games.

Mack’s consistently high touch total helps boost his floor and ceiling, and with the Colts favored by seven points this week, the game script sets up nicely for him. As a key piece in the offense, he’s a great piece of exposure to Indianapolis’ tasty implied team over/under total of 26 points. Furthermore, a matchup with a Raiders defense that’s surrendered the 10th-most DraftKings points to running backs this year is a plus as well.

Assuming things go to expectations with a 7-point spread favoring Waller’s opposition, the Raiders could be forced to play catch-up. Waller’s been a monster thus far this year. The 27-year-old has caught six or more passes and bested 60 receiving yards in all three games this season. He’s coming off of a gaudy 13-134-0 line on 14 targets with a run for seven yards as well in Minnesota. Waller’s 29.9% target share is the sixth highest in the NFL this season. The matchup is great for Waller to continue rolling with the Colts tied for the seventh most DraftKings points yielded per game to tight ends.

Above, I mentioned liking Dissly in a drool-inducing matchup with the Cardinals. I’ll be using Seattle’s tight end on some rosters, but I prefer Waller and will have more exposure to Oakland’s tight end. Additionally, I’ll be pairing the two together on a number of my GPP rosters this week as well.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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