DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Week 3 (2019)
The injuries are piling up each week in the NFL. Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger are the two biggest injuries that affect future fantasy production for their respective teams. Luckily for DFS players, injuries only affect us for one week, and then we get a fresh start the next week.
Each week, I will provide a recap of the prior week’s picks. The goal is to get three-to-four times the price of each player. The higher the value, the better the play. This week there were a couple injuries that affected my picks for Week 2.
Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger – 3.0 points (0.52x), Jared Goff – 20.12 points (3.41x)
Running Back: Josh Jacobs – 9.9 points (2.11x), Devin Singletary – 11.7 points (2.79x)
Wide Receiver: Tyrell Williams – 15.6 points (3.55x), Michael Gallup – 12.8 points (2.29x)
Tight End: Darren Waller – 12.3 points (3.73x), T.J. Hockenson – 1.7 points (0.57x)
The goal of this article is to provide daily fantasy football advice for DraftKings value plays. Implementing a few value plays in your lineups allows for the opportunity to play the top-tier studs. The key with a value play is to find a player with a high floor that also has the opportunity for a breakout game. These value plays will be for DraftKings’ main slate each Sunday. Non-tight ends under $6K and tight ends under $4.5K will be considered value plays.
Matt Ryan (ATL): $5,900 @ IND
Due to a struggling running game, Matt Ryan has been forced to attempt at least 43 passes in each game this season. This had led to 23.6 and 25.1 DK points in Week 1 and 2, respectively. He historically plays better at home, but Indianapolis plays in a dome, which should make him feel more at home. Matt Ryan should find plenty of success throwing to Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley this week.
Jameis Winston (TB): $5,400 vs. NYG
It is always tough to stomach playing Jameis Winston in fantasy football. Your best option is to not watch him play and check his stats after the game. However, Winston goes against the New York Giants and their porous defense this week. The Dallas Cowboys scored 35 points and the Buffalo Bills scored 28 points against this Giants defense. I expect Mike Evans to bounce back and Chris Godwin to continue playing well, which sets up for a solid Week 3 out of Jameis Winston.
Chris Carson (SEA): $5,900 vs. NO
Chris Carson has struggled with fumbles so far this year, but Seattle continues to treat Carson as their main running back. Carson has had 15 carries each week, but most importantly, he has been increasingly involved in the passing game this season. He has nine catches for 61 yards and a touchdown through two weeks. With no Drew Brees for the New Orleans Saints, I expect the Seattle Seahawks to control the game and keep Carson heavily involved this week.
Frank Gore (BUF): $4,400 vs. CIN
Frank Gore’s success hinges on the availability of Devin Singletary this week. Singletary missed practice on Wednesday with a hamstring injury, and it is looking more likely that he will miss Week 3’s matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals. Cincinnati allowed 259 yards on the ground last week against San Francisco. As six-point favorites, the Buffalo Bills should get an early lead and then rely on Gore to seal the win. If Devin Singletary is active on Sunday, I recommend Singletary as a value play over Gore for Week 3.
Randall Cobb (DAL): $4,600 vs. MIA
The Dallas Cowboys play the tanking Miami Dolphins in Week 3, so I recommend as many Cowboys players as possible. With Michael Gallup expected to miss a few weeks due to a knee injury and Amari Cooper drawing the coverage of Miami’s best cornerback, Xavien Howard, Randall Cobb and Devin Smith should benefit from more targets in a blowout win against the Miami Dolphins. In PPR scoring, Randall Cobb provides a fantastic floor this week.
Nelson Agholor (PHI): $3,600 vs. DET
Nelson Agholor benefitted from early injures to DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery in Week 2. Agholor produced eight catches for 107 yards and one touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons. Based on early injury reports, it is expected Jackson and Jeffery will miss Week 3. I can’t expect the same production as last week, but at only $3,600, Agholor is a great value play for your DraftKings lineups this week. If DeSean Jackson or Alshon Jeffery is active for Week 3, I recommend Damiere Byrd as a value play over Nelson Agholor.
Greg Olsen (CAR): $3,700 @ ARI
In a fast-paced game against the Arizona Cardinals, this is setting up as a nice matchup for Greg Olsen. The Cardinals’ defense has allowed a tight end to go over 110 yards and a touchdown in each of the first two weeks. Even if Cam Newton is inactive, I expect Kyle Allen to rely on his tight end as a security blanket this week. Olsen has seen nine targets in each of the first two games and I expect similar opportunities this week.
T.J. Hockenson (DET): $3,500 @ PHI
T.J. Hockenson came back to earth last week after a monster debut. Only catching one ball in Week 2, Hockenson now gets to face the Philadelphia Eagles and their 25th best defense against the tight end. It is slightly concerning that Jesse James had four targets last week compared to Hockenson’s three, but in what is hopefully a higher scoring game this week, T.J. Hockenson is in a nice bounce-back spot.
Nate Snodgrass is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nate, follow him @NSnods.