DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Week 4 (2019)
Welcome to Week 4 of the NFL season, the first week with teams on a bye. This week the teams on bye are the San Fransisco 49ers and the New York Jets. I would expect most Saquon Barkley owners to start playing more DFS this week after hearing the news that their first-round pick will be out four-to-eight weeks.
Each week, I will provide a recap of the prior week’s picks. The goal is to get three-to-four times the price of each player. The higher the value, the better the play.
Quarterback: Matt Ryan- 26.46 points (4.48x), Jameis Winston – 29.5 points (5.46x)
Running Back: Chris Carson – 5.1 points (0.86x), Frank Gore – 16.9 points (3.84x)
Wide Receiver: Randall Cobb – 4.3 points (0.93x), Nelson Agholor – 24 points (6.67x)
Tight End: Greg Olsen – 25.5 points (6.89x), T.J. Hockenson – 1.1 points (0.31x)
Both quarterbacks were exceptional. Chris Carson has really struggled with fumbles this year. He has lost three fumbles in as many games. Randall Cobb had a 74-yard touchdown nullified by a holding penalty, which would have made him an excellent play. Hopefully, you ate the chalk and played Nelson Agholor in all formats. Finally, Greg Olsen continued to show that tight ends dominate the Arizona Cardinals and the Detroit Lions have failed to get T.J. Hockenson involved in back-to-back weeks.
The goal of this article is to provide daily fantasy football advice for DraftKings value plays. Implementing a few value plays in your lineups allows for the opportunity to play the top-tier studs. The key with a value play is to find a player with a high floor that also has the opportunity for a breakout game. These value plays will be for DraftKings’ main slate each Sunday. Non-tight ends under $6K and tight ends under $4.5K will be considered value plays.
Daniel Jones (NYG): $5,300 vs. WAS
Even though this game features two of the lesser teams in the NFL, it has shootout potential. The only team that has allowed more points than the New York Giants and the Washington Redskins is the Miami Dolphins. In his first start, Daniel Jones looked awesome and led the Giants to an epic comeback win. He may struggle with turnovers, having two lost fumbles, but he definitely provides a much-needed spark to this offense that Eli Manning could not. Jones even provides rushing upside, with 28 yards and two touchdowns last week.
Case Keenum (WAS): $4,900 @ NYG
Case Keenum was not impressive on Monday night, but the Chicago Bears’ defense has the ability to do that to average quarterbacks. Now, Keenum gets to face the putrid New York Giants defense that allowed 36.4 DraftKings points to Dak Prescott, 22.2 points to Josh Allen, and 29.5 points to Jameis Winston last week. It may not always look pretty, but Keenum should easily pay off his value this week. Case Keenum missed the team walkthrough on Wednesday. If Keenum is not active, consider Jacoby Brissett as another value play.
Kerryon Johnson (DET): $5,400 vs. KC
In his first game without C.J. Anderson, Kerryon Johnson had 20 carries. He was only able to produce 36 yards, but it was a positive that he had that many carries. This week he is playing in what’s projected to be the highest-scoring game against the Kansas City Chiefs and should be able to bounce back. Throw in a few catches this week and Johnson should be a nice play.
Wayne Gallman (NYG): $4,600 vs. WAS
Due to the Saquon Barkley injury, Wayne Gallman will be extreme chalk this week. Gallman has the ability to catch passes as well, making him an even better DraftKings play. At his price and his expected opportunity, make the easy decision and play Gallman before his price increases.
D.K. Metcalf (SEA): $4,800 @ ARI
My new motto this year is, “Play everyone against the Arizona Cardinals.” Metcalf is easily the number two receiver for the Seattle Seahawks and the Cardinals play at the fastest pace in the NFL. He’s had at least six targets and 60 yards in every game this season. We can’t expect 11 receptions for Tyler Lockett every week, so plan on more opportunities for Metcalf and his fellow tight end, Will Dissly, this week.
Terry McLaurin (WAS): $4,500 @ NYG
Terry McLaurin has looked fantastic so far this season as a rookie. He has scored at least 17 DK points and one touchdown in each of the first three games. He seems to have a good connection with Case Keenum. Let’s not forget what Mike Evans just did to the New York Giants’ cornerbacks last week, scoring three touchdowns and having 190 yards. Don’t expect the same production, but don’t be afraid to fire up “Scary Terry” this week.
Austin Hooper (ATL): $4,300 vs. TEN
HOOOOP! Austin Hooper seems to have a great connection with Matt Ryan. The Atlanta Falcons have struggled to run the ball this season, which is forcing Ryan to throw a lot more. The good news is that most targets are funneled between Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Austin Hooper. Hooper is developing into a top-tier tight end this season.
Will Dissly (SEA): $3,600 @ ARI
As I mentioned with D.K. Metcalf, make life easy and just play all the guys against the Cardinals. Tight ends are absolutely crushing against their defense this season. T.J. Hockenson had 28.1 DK points in Week 1, Mark Andrews had 28.2 DK points in Week 2, and Greg Olsen had 25.5 DK points in Week 3. If you are paying down for a tight end this week, Dissly should be near the top of your board.
Nate Snodgrass is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nate, follow him @NSnods.