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FanDuel Market Watch: Week 2 (2019)

Sep 10, 2019

Here are the players that have seen the largest value fluctuation from last week to this week on the FanDuel main slate. Depending on the situation, we may be able to exploit this information and take advantage of the fact that the player’s salary increased or decreased significantly from last week.

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Marcus Mariota (TEN): $7,400 vs. IND (+$900)
He’s not a bad play but there are just too many other options within a few hundred dollars that I’d rather start. Tennessee QBs didn’t exactly play well in the two games last year against the Colts (368 total passing yards, 2 TDs, and 4 INTs). Mariota played well this past week against a surprisingly inept Browns team. I like his talent, but I would take a wait-and-see approach.

Kyler Murray (ARI): $6,500 @ BAL (-$800)
The shiny new toy looked terrible for half the game and then looked really good against the Lions, finishing with a 300-yard passing game in his first game as a pro. We all want to play him, especially in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. The Cardinals didn’t show us anything in the preseason and then only put one half of football together (at home, no less) against a team that didn’t even make the playoffs last year. Add the fact that they go to Baltimore and I probably am going to stay away this week and pick a better spot.

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler (LAC): $7,500 @ DET (+$1,100)
He turned in the third-best fantasy performance last week. It’s possible that the backfield situation will still be a time-share situation but Ekeler doubled Justin Jackson’s carries and out-snapped him by a 3-to-1 ratio. Overall, Ekeler rushed for 58 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries. He also caught six of the seven balls thrown to him for 98 yards and two touchdowns. Ekeler now has six total touchdowns in his last five games. He is a solid option this week against the Lions.

David Johnson (ARI): $7,300 @ BAL (-$800)
It is not often that you see a RB with the seventh-best day from a fantasy standpoint (22.7 FDFP), also have the largest salary decrease, but that is what we have with DJ. He only rushed for 86 yards on 18 carries, but he was effective as a pass-catcher with 6 receptions for 55 yards and a touchdown. However, he now gets to face the Baltimore Ravens. Only the Chicago Bears gave up fewer fantasy points to RBs last year than the Ravens did. They only gave up 16.0 FDFP per game to their opponents’ RBs. The Ravens picked up where they left off last week by giving up only 12 yards on the ground and 28 through the air to Dolphins RBs. DJ is talented and their offense looked good in the fourth quarter, but I would look for a clearer path with less resistance this week.

Wide Receivers

Sammy Watkins (KC): $7,400 @ OAK (+$1,100)
He has never been a consistent receiver, but let’s not overthink this. Tyreek Hill is out, and he has a nice matchup. His price tag is still too low for this week. I certainly don’t expect three touchdowns from him again (though only the 49ers gave up more WR touchdowns last year than the Raiders) but matching his 11 targets from Week 1 is certainly a likely outcome. He may not be elite, but his situation is as the top WR on the top offense coming off of a 9-198-3 day. Even getting half of his 42.3 FDFP from this week would return his value at this price. Play him.

Tyler Boyd (CIN): $6,300 vs. SF (-$600)
John Ross got all the attention with his two-touchdown performance, but Boyd led the team with 11 targets. He got 8 of them for 60 yards and 10.3 FDFP. It is not often that a player gets 11 targets and has the largest price drop. It is usually because he is in a bad matchup, but nobody allowed more WR touchdowns last year than the 49ers. I liked Boyd at last week’s price in a tougher matchup, so I really like him this week.

Tight Ends

Vernon Davis (WAS): $5,100 vs. DAL (+$1,100)
We thought Vernon Davis was done and the Redskins were bad, but for one day, those were just myths. Davis started the day with an athletic touchdown, finishing with a 4-59-1 stat line on seven targets. His 13.9 FDFP was the fifth-highest total on the day for TEs. If Reed is out again this week, Davis becomes a viable option next week as only the 17th highest priced TE and having a favorable matchup. Dallas struggled last year against TEs, and they gave up an 11-116-1 stat line to Evan Engram on Sunday.

T.J. Hockenson (DET): $6,000 vs. LAC (+$1,100)
His 22.1 FDFP was the second-best TE performance as he turned his nine targets into a 6-131-1 stat line. The No. 8 selection in this past Spring’s draft put up the highest yardage total for a TE in the NFL since 1970. However, the Chargers held Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle in check last week, and his price is too close to Hunter Henry and Evan Engram. If you want to play him, look at DraftKings, where he wasn’t priced up and is still only $3,000.

* There are no significant TE decreases worth talking about this week

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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.

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