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FanDuel Market Watch: Week 3 (2019)

Sep 17, 2019

Teddy Bridgewater may have value as an under-the-radar DFS option this week

Here are the players that have seen the largest value fluctuation from last week to this week on the FanDuel main slate. Depending on the situation, we may be able to exploit this information and take advantage of the fact that the player’s salary increased or decreased significantly from last week.

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Quarterbacks

Teddy Bridgewater (NO): $6,800 @ SEA (+$800)
If you watched the game Sunday, Bridgewater didn’t leave much of a positive impression filling in for the injured Drew Brees. Nobody knows how he will perform with a week of preparation to be the starter, but the Saints have invested a ton in Bridgewater both as the heir apparent and a reliable insurance policy for Brees. He is still young and not too far removed from going 17-12 as the Vikings’ starter. Seattle gave up 400 yards to Andy Dalton in Week 1 at home so this matchup may not be terrible.

If you trust Sean Payton’s ability to game plan or you trust the overall talent of the Saints, then you might want to consider Bridgewater this week. He has talent. He has weapons. He is cheap. He’s not Brees, but I don’t think he’s as bad as he looked in relief on Sunday against the Rams.

Matt Ryan (ATL): $7,800 @ IND (-$400)
Pricing came out before the Sunday night game was complete and Ryan had accumulated the eighth-highest QB total on the day with 22.1 FDFP. He is not a bad play. If you like him, then this is a good value play. I have a hard time figuring out the Falcons’ offense so I am going to pass on him, especially since I can get Tom Brady for the same price or other similar quarterbacks for less. The colts are one-for-one this year in giving up 300+ yards to quarterbacks after giving up only four 300-yard passing games last year.

Running Backs

Jeff Wilson Jr. (SF): $5,300 vs. PIT (+$800)
I had to double-check this, but yes, Jeff Wilson is the running back with the highest salary increase this week after gaining 34 yards on 10 carries. Yes, he had two touchdowns, but as we all know, that is variance. He was signed and joined the team on Saturday. Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert are ahead of him on the depth chart. Don’t waste a running back spot on FanDuel chasing touchdowns with a third-stringer.

Joe Mixon (CIN): $6,500 @ BUF (-$1,000)
Bengals fans booed the team during the 41-17 loss to the 49ers on Sunday. Joe Mixon said, “If they feel like they can do it better, then come try out.” Most of the fans probably know that he is better than they are. However, paying a high-ticket price only to see Mixon gain 17 yards on 11 carries after a six-carry, 10-yard performance in Week 1 doesn’t make a fan excited about a player. A total of 6.9 FDFP in two weeks is not something I want to pay for even at a discounted price.

Wide Receivers

Mecole Hardman (KC): $6,300 vs. BAL (+$1,600)
There is a lot to love with this Kansas City offense. Hardman is probably the future in KC. However, he is not a sure thing right now, even in this offense. It’s not that he can’t put up big numbers, but are we sure that he will get the volume this week against a very strong defensive unit? The Chiefs still have Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce, and now Demarcus Robinson has emerged as a viable option. Last year, Watkins was the clear number two wide receiver option for the Chiefs and his average price for the year was only $6,200.

That is $100 fewer than Hardman, an unproven rookie with seven targets in two games. I will definitely have shares of him in MME builds, but this price tag is very speculative and risky. In single-entry or three-maxes, I’d rather pay down for some of the cheaper options. Marquise Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, D.K. Metcalf, Tyrell Williams, Larry Fitzgerald, and Curtis Samuel have been targeted more and had arguably better results at a lower price point.

Dante Pettis (SF): $4,600 vs. PIT (-$1,000)
For whatever reason, he seems to be in Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse. He has only played 36 total snaps and caught the only ball thrown his way. I guess that makes him pretty efficient, but there is a reason he has only played a few snaps. I don’t need to be early on Pettis. I will wait-and-see on him this year. I just don’t like throwing money away hoping that he gets it turned around.

Tight Ends

Will Dissly (SEA): $5,400 vs. NO (+$900)
He is not a bad play this week coming off a game in which he caught all five targets and scored two touchdowns. However, I don’t trust who will get targeted in this Seattle offense. I also have a wait-and-see approach with Dissly, coming off a knee injury in Week 1. He looked healthy and looked to be a major part of the offense, but I am going to proceed with caution. I will have pieces of him in my MMEs, but for my core play, I am going find $700 and get Greg Olsen in an awesome matchup against the Cardinals.

C.J. Uzomah (CIN): $4,000 @ BUF (-$800)
He might have caught four balls in Week 1, but he didn’t even have a target this past week against the 49ers. Sure, his price is nice, but he is more of a blocking tight end and I don’t want to risk taking a zero in my lineup. He is not talented enough to gamble on.

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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.

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