Welcome everyone to the 2019 NFL regular season. If the season opener between the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers was any indication, people will be disappointed with their first five home league selections, points will be at a premium, and Monday will be a day where half your season-long rosters are on the trade block. Cool down. Don’t overreact. Week 1 tends to be chaotic.
Fortunately or unfortunately DFS allows fantasy players to have short memories. It’s also important to not focus too much on the future. Pricing is going to be wonky on a lot of guys across the various sites this week. Week 2 price adjustments have no pertinence to Week 1 prices.
How risk-averse you are will dictate a lot of cash decisions. A lot of cash game players tend to err with high floors and high ownership. Remember, you’re looking to finish in the top half. Of course, everyone wants to have a “perfect roster” but it’s not required here. A $5.00 double-up is going to pay you $10.00 no matter where you finish above the cash line. It’s OK to take certain plays that seem obvious.
It’s also important to adjust depending on what takes place when inactives are announced an hour and a half before kickoff. Keep the player with the latest start time in the FLEX spot so you can always adjust to breaking news in the late games.
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The players below are ones I’m targeting for cash game considerations:
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford (DET): $6,600 @ Arizona Cardinals
The Detroit Lions quarterback wasn’t the quarterback you thought it would be from this game, is it? That $700 savings can go a long way. If Murray succeeds (sans his legs) then Stafford likely has to play catch-up. Oh…but it’s Stafford. He’s inconsistently consistent. In 10 season openers, Stafford has averaged 281.5 passing yards per game. He’s thrown 18 touchdowns and 15 INTs.
Once again, consistent if not consistent. He’s definitely a value though. Stafford is priced as the QB18 on Fanduel. The Lions have an implied team total of 24.5 in a game totaling 46.5. The Cardinals defense will be without Patrick Peterson and Robert Alford for the season opener. Last season the Lions threw on 60.45% of their offensive plays. In 2017 that number was 62.96%. Look for the Lions offense to test the depleted Cardinals secondary early and often.
Jameis Winston (TB): $7,500 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Priced as much as Dak Prescott and Philip Rivers, Winston actually appears as he could be in a close game. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ running game consists of just three players. One of whom is an undrafted free agent (Dare Ogunbowale), one is a “second-year” high draft pick (Ronald Jones), and the “starter” is Peyton Barber.
Then you have Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard and a (hopefully) healthy Breshad Perriman.
Then you have the San Francisco 49ers front seven vs their secondary:
Top funnel defenses from 2018 based on difference in pass/run DVOA rank
Great pass defense/terrible run defense
1. Cardinals
2. Chiefs
T3. Browns
T3. Rams
5. RedskinsGreat run defense/terrible pass defense
1. Saints
T2. Lions
T2. Texans
4. Colts
5. 49ers— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) August 14, 2019
You might not be eating crab legs on Sunday, but with Winston and his receivers, you should be eating W’s.
Other notables:
Jacoby Brissett (IND): $6,000 @ LAC
Josh Allen (BUF): $6,900 vs. NYJ
Nick Foles (JAC): $6,500 vs. KC
Running Backs
Chris Carson (SEA): $6,600 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Seattle Seahawks are tied with the Philadelphia Eagles for the biggest favorite of Week 1 (-10). This is a situation where Week 1 pricing can be taken advantage of. Lock in the price savings and eat the chalk. Seriously. This game could get ugly and Carson should see a good amount of work icing this game away.
Dalvin Cook (MIN): $7,400 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Pass catching running back against the Atlanta Falcons defense? Check. Lead back with limited competition behind him? Check. The Minnesota Vikings are a home favorite? Check.
Dalvin Cook Reminder!
In his final three games w/ OC Stefanski last season:
76% of team's offensive snaps, 18 touches per game, 110 scrimmage yards per game
As @MichaelFFlorio pointed out last night, Falcons have allowed most receptions to RB last four seasons
— Frank Stampfl (@Roto_Frank) September 4, 2019
Other notables:
Mark Ingram (BAL): $6,600 @ MIA
Devonta Freeman (ATL): $6,700 @ MIN
Wide Receivers
Tyler Lockett (SEA): $6,800 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The undisputed WR1 for the Seahawks is priced as the WR17 for Week 1. Much like Carson, Lockett is under-priced in the role he serves.
Tyler Lockett gave Dre Kirkpatrick the business on this play. A better throw by Russ, and Lockett takes that 87 yards to the house. Hopefully we see that matchup again on Sunday. pic.twitter.com/mtYN8LbxaC
— Parker Lewis (@ParkerLewisJR) September 4, 2019
Last season Lockett and Wilson hooked up to great success. This season looks like it’s going to start in the same way. The Bengals played a good amount of man coverage last season. According to Matt Harmon, Lockett is #good against man coverage. Lock him in this week.
Tyler Lockett is quite good at football.
– His 74% success rate vs. man coverage in #ReceptionPerception from 2018 falls at the 89th percentile (2nd-highest mark of his career)
– He's cleared 70% success rate vs. press in 3/4 seasonsMore than deserves his coming volume boost. pic.twitter.com/kbNWSgHvtX
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) August 13, 2019
Chris Godwin (TB): $6,900 vs San Francisco 49ers
Perhaps the most hyped player for 2019, Godwin gets a positive matchup right out of the gates as the Buccaneers host the San Francisco 49ers. Pairing Godwin with Winston and even Evans could get a lot of exposure to a high scoring game.
Then there’s the news of 49ers corner Jimmie Ward breaking his finger. Should he miss this week, K’Waun Williams could be guarding Godwin in the slot. Yes, please.
Chris Godwin has 4 inches and over 20lbs on 49ers slot CB K'Waun Williams. Per Next Gen Stats, Williams has allowed the 13th-highest success rate and 3rd-highest completion rate among 95 qualified CBs over the last two years.
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) September 4, 2019
Other notables:
Dede Westbrook (JAC): $5,900 vs. KC
Calvin Ridley (ATL): $6,500 @ MIN
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce (KC): $7,800 @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars announced that Jalen Ramsey will be shadowing Tyreek Hill. Expect Kelce to be force-fed targets all day. Last season, the Jaguars defense allowed more touchdowns to tight ends (eight) than wide receivers (seven). The Jaguars had no answer for Kelce last season either. He logged five catches for 100 yards and was Pro Football Focus’ highest-graded offensive player in that game for the Chiefs.
Before the new NFL week begins, a look back at the top 5 offensive graded Chiefs from their win over the Jaguars (min. 15 snaps.)
Travis Kelce 84.8
Tyreek Hill 74.9
Sammy Watkins 72.5
Mitchell Schwartz 71.0
Patrick Mahomes 69.0#ChiefsKingdom— PFF KC Chiefs (@PFF_Chiefs) October 11, 2018
The savings available at other positions allow for spending up on a thin position. In cash games, why try to get cute here?
George Kittle (SF): $7,300 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sometimes it really doesn’t need to be difficult. Much like Kelce, if you’re getting savings elsewhere, Kittle presents a great opportunity in a high scoring game at a thin position. Spending down at tight end this week looks frightening.
Other notables:
Evan Engram (NYG): $6,400 @ DAL
Defense
Philadelphia Eagles: $4,600 vs. Washington Redskins
The health and availability of Fletcher Cox greatly impact how effective the Eagles defense will be in this NFC East showdown. With Cox active, it’s hard to envision a situation where the Washington Redskins offensive line will be effective. Anything containing both Ereck Flowers and Donald Penn in 2019 is suspect going against a front four that is as deep as any team in the league. Sacks and turnovers are key for the fantasy defenses. Expect Case Keenum to give the Eagles defense plenty of both.
Other notables:
Detroit DST: $4,100 @ ARI
Baltimore DST: $5,000 vs. MIA
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Matt Giraldi is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Matt, check out his archive or follow him @Mgiraldi.
