FanDuel NFL Cash Game Lineup Advice: Week 2 (2019)
Week 1 provided us with everything we look for in DFS. A fresh new start, a bunch of chalk, and frustration abound. The Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers disappointed, injuries were rampant and salaries that were loose were capitalized by fewer than we expected.
For transparency’s sake, I used many of the cash game plays from last week in a $10.00 double-up. Playing Matthew Stafford ahead of Jameis Winston would’ve made for a much less stressful cash line sweat, but everything worked out for the best last week. The biggest mistake being the decision to pay up for Mike Evans at receiver and pay down for presumed starter Derrius Guice.
Moving forward to Week 2, however, we need to understand that what we saw in Week 1 wasn’t definitive nor was it predictive. It was a piece of the puzzle. It’s data to be analyzed, debated, and manipulated. Which information is sticky? Which is predictive? Answer questions like this and we can have high floor, high upside safe picks.
A standard PSA that bears repeating each and every week: It’s important to adjust depending on what takes place when inactives are announced an hour and a half before kickoff. Keep the player with the latest start time in the FLEX spot so you can always adjust to breaking news in the late games. This is simple information that goes a long way. Pay attention to the small details. They’ll save you money over the long run.
The players below are ones I’m targeting for cash game considerations:
Derek Carr (OAK): $6,600 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
One game does not make a season, but it’s hard not to walk away impressed from Carr’s performance Week 1 against the Denver Broncos. The Broncos defense isn’t quite what it was five years ago, but it’s still an impressive feat to prove the naysayers wrong right out of the gates. Knock on wood if you’re with me.
The Chiefs and Raiders are currently pegged as the highest-scoring game of Week 2 according to FantasyLabs and the Raiders players are not priced anywhere close to their potential ceilings. The last two meetings between the Raiders and Chiefs in the Bay finished with scores of 33-40 and 31-30. Carr threw for three touchdowns in each game and had a total of 702 passing yards on 90 attempts.
Derek Carr’s last 2 games at home vs #Chiefs:
29-of-38, 285 yds, 3 TDs
29-of-52, 417 yds, 3 TDs
— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) September 11, 2019
Home plate = safe for Carr. It will also be the final time a baseball diamond is on an NFL field again. Speaking of baseball, Carr’s combined 64.4% completion percentage in his last two home games against the Chiefs has a Khris Davis-esque level of consistency. In his two prior home games against the Chiefs from 2016 and 2015, he had completion percentages of 64.7% and 64.6%, respectively. Not too bad for a guy that has, over his career, completed just 58.9% of his passes. Perhaps a Hunter Renfrow touchdown is in order on Sunday to give a fitting farewell to the Sandlot in Alameda County.
Tom Brady (NE): $7,800 vs. Miami Dolphins
In Week 1 the Dolphins allowed the Ravens to throw for 379 yards and six touchdowns on just 26 passing attempts. In Week 2 the Dolphins get to go up against Brady, Antonio Brown, Julian Edelman, and Josh Gordon. To make matters even worse for the soon-to-be fillet of fish, Reshad Jones has missed practice this week due to an ankle injury. Sounds fun doesn’t it?
In Brady’s last six games against the Dolphins, he’s thrown a total of 18 touchdowns with five interceptions. He’s averaged 287 passing yards per game in that stretch. Of course, this game is located in Miami. Over his career, Brady is 7-10 facing the Dolphins in Miami, losing five of last six games. Chris Hogan is long gone from the Patriots, so Brady isn’t going to 7-11. Chalk one up for Brady and the Dark Side.
Lamar Jackson (BAL): $8,200 vs ARI
Matthew Stafford (DET): $7,000 vs LAC
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): $8,500 @ Washington Redskins
Despite the Cowboys being on the road, they’re still heavy favorites against the Redskins. This fares well for Elliott to get a good amount of snaps and carries in what should be an easy Cowboys win. Making matters worse for the Redskins is that Jonathan Allen might miss this game as well. Allen was injured last week against the Philadelphia Eagles, which coincidentally, seemed to open the floodgates offensively for the Eagles.
Over his career against the Redskins, Zeke is averaging 23 rushing attempts per game for 96.8 rushing yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game. Dallas is projected to score 26 points against the ‘Skins. After the Eagles’ trio of backs displayed dominance, it’s safe to assume that Elliott surpasses Philadelphia’s ground game production.
Josh Jacobs (OAK): $6,500 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The trend continues (and will continue to do so) for this week. The Raiders are in a great opportunity for fantasy goodness and they’re priced to create flexibility throughout your roster. Case in point with Jacobs: He played 74% of the Raiders offensive snaps Week 1.
In his first NFL game, Josh Jacobs posted 113 yards from scrimmage (85 rushing, 28 receiving) and ran for two TDs.
Became the first player since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2001 to have 100 yards from scrimmage along with multiple rushing TDs in an NFL debut. pic.twitter.com/t2QDgLum9B
— Matt Zenitz (@mzenitz) September 10, 2019
Mark Ingram (BAL): $7,500 vs ARI
Damien Williams (KC): $6,600 @ OAK
Keenan Allen (LAC): $7,700 @ Detroit Lions
Hunter Henry and Mike Williams are scheduled to miss Sunday’s matchup with the Lions. Already without Melvin Gordon, the Chargers offense is becoming more and more one-dimensional as the injuries pile up. Allen is likely going to see a lot of coverage from Darrius Slay in this game. As Ian Hartitz at Rotoworld notes, “The Chargers lined up Allen in the slot (25 snaps) as often as they did on the outside (27) in Week 1, but it might not matter where he goes against Slay, who has emerged as one of very few high-frequency shadow CBs that will chase their opponent inside.”
We’re all about opportunity though here, and Allen is going to have a ton of it in this game.
Robert Woods (LAR): $7,300 vs. New Orleans Saints
After Week 1, Woods is tied for second among receivers in targets, 26th in air yards, eighth in WOPR, and is in the top 10 in expected points. Now he gets a Saints defense that has been giving out fantasy points to opposing teams like it’s 9:45 pm on Halloween.
Woods led the Rams last week with 13 targets. Expect more of the same this week against the Saints. In the playoff matchup last season, Woods was targeted 10 times against the Saints. While his boxscore showed only 33 yards, there was still meat left on the bone:
Saints 23, Rams 20. 44 seconds left in 4Q.
If Robert Woods stays on his feet here, there’s not a doubt in my mind he houses it. pic.twitter.com/7jbNIpq8ug
— Cameron DaSilva (@camdasilva) January 22, 2019
Donte Moncrief (PIT): $5,400 vs. SEA
Tyrell Williams (OAK): $5,900 vs. KC
Darren Waller (OAK): $5,400 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
If Travis Kelce isn’t your de-facto tight end this week, taking Waller is a pretty nice alternative. The culmination of everything Raiders in this article is a reflection of their soft pricing. They’re in one of the highest-scoring games on the slate and their prices are stagnant due to playing in the late Monday Night Football slot. What we saw on Monday was that Waller is going to be heavily utilized in this offense.
Waller played 100% of the offensive snaps on Monday night, the only Raiders skill position player to accomplish that feat. Waller led the team in targets (eight) and receptions (seven). Tight ends feasted on the Chiefs last season, and it’s likely Waller is heavily involved in the game plan this week.
Delanie Walker (TEN): $5,900 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Titans rookie receiver A.J. Brown has received plenty of hype after his breakout performance during their Week 1 beatdown of the Browns. Lost in the rookie hoopla was the fact that Walker was once again Marcus Mariota’s security blanket. His boxscore performance was indicative of such as well: six targets, five catches, 55 yards, and two touchdowns.
Using air yards data, Walker had the eighth highest WOPR rating from Week 1 among tight ends. The Colts gave up points by the droves to opposing tight ends last season. For those looking at snap counts, they might think they’ve found Walker’s Kryptonite when they see him third on the team for tight ends. Walker might not outscore Waller, but there’s a good chance he will give equal bang for the buck at his affordable cost.
Evan Engram (NYG): $6,400 vs. BUF
New England Patriots DST: $4,900 @ Miami Dolphins
According to Pro Football Focus, the Dolphins had three different offensive linemen allow three or more pressures in Week 1, including Julien Davenport and Danny Isidora. Dolphins quarterbacks were sacked three times and both Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen threw interceptions. Last week the Patriots only sacked Ben Roethlisberger once and had one interception. The defensive pressure this week should be much better for the defending Super Bowl champions.
The Patriots are getting Kyle Van Noy back this week after he missed their Week 1 game due to the birth of his child. Last season Van Noy played 946 of a possible 1,043 defensive snaps during the regular season (90.7%), and all but one of New England’s 188 snaps in the playoffs. The Patriots might have an under-the-radar defense in lieu of their offensive acquisitions, but after this Sunday they might suddenly make some noise.
Cincinnati DST: $3,900 vs. SF
Tennessee DST: $4,600 vs. IND