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FanDuel NFL Value Plays: Week 1 (2019)

FanDuel NFL Value Plays: Week 1 (2019)

Geoff Lambert looks at value plays for Week 1.

This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Geoff, head over to GoingFor2.com.

Week 1 is finally here! So much has changed since last year. Odell Beckham Jr. in Cleveland, Antonio Brown in Oakland, Andrew Luck on his couch. I can’t remember a time where so many superstars changed teams in an offseason — and I didn’t even mention Le’Veon Bell. If this regular is even half as good as the offseason, we are in for a treat. Let’s get to today’s values…

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Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson (BAL): $7,400 @ MIA
Miami is in full tank mode after trading away most of their assets. On paper, the Dolphins are unquestionably the worst team in the league, which normally I’d avoid a game like that because of blowout potential. Lucky for us, the Ravens aren’t good enough on offense to blow the Dolphins out, at least not initially.

The final score could end up a blowout, but as a run-first, grinding offense, Jackson will still have plenty on time to rack up fantasy points, both through the air and on the ground.

Jacoby Brissett (IND): $6,000 @ LAC
Brissett may be the biggest value at the QB spot on the entire slate. No one saw the Andrew Luck retirement coming, so FanDuel priced Brissett like a backup QB, as they should. Now that he is thrust into this role at a depressed price, he may be the cash game QB of choice on Sunday.

Everyone wants to point out his stats from the last time he was a starter when Luck missed the entire year, but people forget that the Colts traded for Brissett a week before the season started — then handed him the reins in Week 2. It would be unfair to judge him on that 2017 season.

Brissett has good weapons around him and a good defense that should allow him to manage this game. The Colts have had enough time to adjust their gameplan to what Brissett does well, and at $6,000, he can easily pay off his salary.

Others I like: Jimmy Garoppolo $7,200, Matthew Stafford $6,600

Running Backs

Matt Breida (SF):  $5,400 @ TB
Anyone who follows me knows I’ve been on the Breida hype train all summer. I’ve been screaming from the rooftops that he is the starter, not Tevin Coleman. Breida will play the Devonta Freeman role in this offense while Tevin Coleman plays, well, the Tevin Coleman role. There is no better comparison to Coleman than Coleman himself. This Bucs defense was historically bad last year and I don’t see much improvement this year. His price tag is too good to pass up.

Devin Singletary (BUF): $5,300 @ NYJ
Singletary is a GPP only value play since we don’t know how this backfield will shake out with Frank Gore there as well. The Bills want to run the ball and run it a lot. That plays well for Singletary as the RB that made LeSean McCoy expendable. If Singletary does get a high volume of touches, he could easily pay off his salary at $5,300.

Others I like: Dare Ogunbowale $4,500

Wide Receivers

Christian Kirk (ARI): $6,000 vs. DET
This is a good game to target in general, as the Lions want to run the ball and the Cards were dead last vs. the run. Then, on the other side, the Cards want to pass the ball and the Lions were bottom five vs. the pass in 2018. So enter Christian Kirk. Last year the Cardinals’ offense was one of the worst offenses in NFL history, yet somehow Kirk had nearly 600 yards receiving and 3 TDs. This offense figures to be better this year under the new regime and has the arrow pointing up for Kirk.

Zay Jones (BUF): $5,000 @ NYJ
From Week 10 through Week 16, excluding Week 11 when he was hurt, Jones had 53 total targets, which is nearly nine targets per game. That would put him in the Michael Thomas range if he were to do that over a 16 game season. In addition to that, Jones and QB Josh Allen were on the field for a short time in the preseason, in that time Allen threw 10 passes — five of them went Jones’ way. Allen will look early and often for Jones and he is also their best option in the red zone.

Others I like: Dede Westbrook $5,900 

Tight Ends

Austin Hooper (ATL): $5,500 @ MIN
The Vikings defense struggled last year defending the TE, as they ranked 22nd in DVOA vs. the TE last year (per FootballOutsiders.com). Jimmy Graham, who had a terrible season by all accounts, had 95 yards receiving against this Vikings defense. The Falcons are a high powered offense with a lot of weapons, and that defense may forget about Hooper. The problem? Matt Ryan won’t.

Defense

San Francisco 49ers: $3,700 @ TB
This game could have a lot of scoring, which is normally a bad thing for defenses. That said, the 49ers’ front seven will make QB Jameis Winston’s life hell. The Bucs have a terrible offensive line while the defensive front seven for the Niners may be one of the best front sevens in the league — at least on paper. And Winston has been know to throw a pick…or four.

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