FanDuel NFL Value Plays: Week 3 (2019)
Geoff Lambert looks at value plays for Week 2.
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Week 2 is in the books and boy did we have a lot of things happen. Quarterback injuries, trades, and more. Let’s take a look a Week 3 to get your Fanduel lineups set…
Jameis Winston (TB) $7,300 vs. NYG
Winston has not played well through two games this season, but the Giants have a cure for what ails him…their defense. Only the Miami Dolphins rank lower in DVOA vs. the pass than do the Giants (via FootballOutsiders.com). On a slate where there aren’t very many value quarterbacks, Winston has some decent upside at $7,300.
Raheem Mostert (SF) $6,000 vs. PIT
The Steelers’ run defense, as much as they have struggled this season, has been really good…Wait, what? Then why suggest Mostert? Because he is the Niners receiving back of choice. He had three receptions for 68 yards and a TD last week in a game they dominated. I don’t expect the Niners to get up big on the Steelers, even without Ben Roethlisberger, and that should lead to more screen-plays and short dump-offs for Mostert.
Royce Freeman (DEN) $5,900 @ GB
Freeman has outplayed his teammate Phillip Lindsay over the first two games, and I’d expect that to continue here in Green Bay. The Packers just gave up 154 yards on 20 carries to Dalvin Cook, and while I don’t expect Freeman to come anywhere near those numbers, I think he can go over 100 with a touchdown.
Nelson Agholor (PHI) $4,800 vs. DET
With Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson both expected to miss this game, Agholor is the most likely of the remaining wide receivers to soak up a lot of their targets. He had 11 targets last week, most of that coming after Jeffery and Jackson were out. The Lions defense has been tough against the pass this year ranking seventh in DVOA, but volume alone for Agholor should make him viable at his price.
James Washington (PIT) $5,200 @ SF
Mason Rudolph to James Washington is not what most fans would have thought we’d be talking about in this game, but with Ben Roethlisberger’s injury, Rudolph and Washington seem to have good chemistry — at least in the preseason. They also played together in college, which can’t hurt. Donte Moncrief was benched last week for his continued drops and Washington should be the one to assume that role. The 49ers currently rank first in DVOA vs. the pass (via Footballoutsiders.com), but that is more about their front seven getting to the quarterback than it is about their secondary. The Steelers are one of the better pass-blocking offensive lines in the league and should give Rudolph enough time to pick on a weak Niners secondary.
Will Dissly (SEA) $5,400 vs. NO
Dissly isn’t going to wow anyone with his athletism but at 6-foot-4 265 pounds he is a matchup nightmare in the red zone. His two TD catches from last week were from 14 and 12 yards out, and that is where I’d expect him to thrive. His upside is linked solely to him scoring TDs but if you’re going to punt the position, he is as good as any.
49ers $3,700 vs. PIT
Mason Rudolph is making his first NFL start, on the road and likely without starting running back James Conner. I think Rudolph is a competent quarterback, but he will face a ton of pressure from that 49ers front seven which could force some errant throws and turnovers.