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Fantasy Football Feast or Famine: Week 1 (2019)

Fantasy Football Feast or Famine: Week 1 (2019)

After way too much talk about helmets and running back contracts, the 2019 season has at long last arrived.

The biggest adjustments fantasy owners have to make at this point is the change from a draft mindset to a “who should I start?” mindset. You might have have been very high on a player for the draft, but that doesn’t mean that he’s an advisable start in Week 1. That’s where the expert rankings come in. FantasyPros gathers the rankings of all the elite minds in the industry so that you don’t have to. What might come as a shock to you is that not all experts agree on where each player should be ranked.

In this article, I’ll examine some of the players who have the widest ranges of expert rankings. I’ll try to predict whether those players will feast or starve. Now sit back, relax, and enjoy the ride. After all, I was the only expert to finish inside the top 10 in both running back and wide receiver accuracy in 2018.

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Drew Brees (QB – NO):
Highest ranking: 1st. Lowest ranking: 22nd.

Despite totaling his second-lowest fantasy output since 2010, Drew Brees still managed to average a superb 24.9 points at home in 2018. Brees is always a must-start at the Superdome and the Texans are far from a daunting matchup. On average, Houston allowed more than 20 points to opposing quarterbacks on the road … and that was with Jadeveon Clowney and Tyrann Mathieu, both of whom are gone.

This game has the makings of a shootout, which should allow Brees to compete for the overall QB1 honors in Week 1.

Verdict: Feast.

Jameis Winston (QB – TB):
Highest ranking: 2nd. Lowest ranking: 13th.

If you drafted Jameis Winston, the chance of you regretting it in Week 1 is highly unlikely. The 49ers allowed a whopping 23.1 points to quarterbacks on the road in 2018, and none of those quarterbacks posted fewer than 18.3 points. San Francisco did add a heap of talent to their defense in 2019, but it will likely take the unit a couple of weeks to gel.

Winston totaled more than 20 points in each of his five home games last year. That, coupled with the arrival of Bruce Arians makes Winston a high-end QB1 to begin the 2019 campaign.

Verdict: Feast.

Jared Goff (QB – LAR):
Highest ranking: 2nd. Lowest ranking: 19th.

Jared Goff had Big Ben-like home/road splits in 2018, averaging a whopping 10.6 more points at home than on the road. Goff will be on the road this week where he averaged a mere 14.6 points a game in 2018. It’s not all bad news though, as the Panthers allowed more than 18 points to six of the eight quarterbacks they faced at home. Nonetheless, the splits are tough to ignore.

Verdict: Famine.

Matt Ryan (QB – ATL):
Highest ranking: 5th. Lowest Ranking: 23rd.

Matt Ryan averaged a rock-solid 22.5 points over his final six road games in 2018. That’s where the good news ends for Ryan owners. Last season, the Vikings held all but one quarterback to 12 points or less at U.S. Bank Stadium. Five of those quarterbacks failed to reach double-digit points.

It’s tough to view Ryan as anything more than a middling QB2 to open the season.

Verdict: Famine.

Chris Carson (RB – SEA):
Highest ranking: 1st. Lowest ranking: 15th.

The Bengals struggled against the run last season. In half PPR formats, eight running backs reached double-digit points against them on the road and 10 backs in total scored 16 or more during the season. Chris Carson averaged 17.6 points over his final four home games of 2018.

Carson is the lead guy again this year, and his owners should be licking their chops at this matchup. He’s a mid-range RB1 to begin the 2019 campaign.

Verdict: Feast.

Todd Gurley (RB – LAR):
Highest ranking: 4th. Lowest ranking: 20th.

Four running backs managed to total 15 or more points in half PPR formats in Carolina last year. The additions of Gerald McCoy and Bruce Irvin should go a long way in shoring up Carolina’s defensive front. That said, they are not just going up against any back, they are going up against Todd Gurley.

Without knowing anything concrete, let’s assume that Gurley sees fewer than 20 touches to start the season. In the 11 games throughout the last two seasons where he did not receive 20 touches, Gurley averaged 17.9 points per game. That’s still very much elite territory. Consider him a low-end RB1 for this one.

Verdict: Feast.

David Johnson (RB – ARI):
Highest ranking: 4th. Lowest Ranking: 19th.

In half PPR formats, the Lions allowed four running backs to score 16 or more against them in their first six games … and then they traded for Snacks Harrison. With Harrison, Detroit allowed just two such games over their final 10 games, including just 10.1 to David Johnson in Week 14.

There is immense potential for DJ in Kliff Kingsbury’s air raid offense, but he’s not without risk. This could be a tough matchup for him to get going.

Verdict: Famine.

Latavius Murray (RB – NO):
Highest ranking: 26th. Lowest ranking: 40th.

Over the last two seasons, Mark Ingram had 13 touchdowns in 14 home games. Latavius Murray is the better goal line running back, as he’s converted 53 percent of his carries inside the five into touchdowns over the last four seasons. Murray has also seen 65 percent of his touchdowns come at home.

In what should be a shootout on Monday Night Football, Murray has a great chance to outperform his RB3 ECR.

Verdict: Feast.

Davante Adams (WR – GB):
Highest ranking: 1st. Lowest ranking: 14th.

In half PPR formats, Adams has had at least 15.9 points in three of his last four games against the Bears. He also scored in the one game where he failed to reach that number. Adams was responsible for two of the six highest-scoring outputs by receivers against the Bears in 2018. Adams also did not have a single game in 2018 where he failed to reach 15 PPR points.

Fire him up as a WR1 to start the season and don’t look back.

Verdict: Feast.

Allen Robinson (WR – CHI):
Highest ranking: 14th. Lowest ranking: 38th.

Allen Robinson posted a combined 115 yards and failed to score in his two games against the Packers in 2018. The 26-year-old had just two home games where he was able to reach double-digit fantasy points in half PPR formats. Just two.

Robinson is a boom-or-bust low-end WR2 to begin the season.

Verdict: Famine.

Without further adieu, here are my Week 1 rankings. Drumroll, please.

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Elisha Twerski is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Elisha, check out his archive or follow him @ElishaTwerski.

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