The Monday following the first week of the season shall henceforth be known as “Overreaction Monday.”
The sheer number of rash moves following the first game of the season is astounding. It makes sense though. People spend months building players up in their minds, and when those players don’t perform to expectation right out of the gate, panic sets in.
That panic doesn’t just appear in the form of trades or drops, it also shows up in week two lineup decisions. There are some that will be quick to bench those who struggled in their first game, while others won’t hesitate to start those that had a fluke performance. Remember Kevin Ogletree? He scored a third of his career touchdowns on opening day seven years ago. Mike Gillislee scoring three of his five 2017 touchdowns in Week 1 is surely still a sore topic for some people. The moral of the story? Don’t overreact.
Believe it or not, fantasy experts are human too. Some experts might over-rank players based on their Week 1 performance, while others will be down on players that might have struggled. In this article I’ll look at some players with the biggest ECR discrepancies and predict whether they will feast or starve.
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Jared Goff (QB – LAR)
Highest rank: QB3. Lowest rank: QB18.
Goff averaged an astounding 342.1 yards and 2.75 touchdown passes at home last year to go with just three interceptions. He also posted a line of 391/3/1 in New Orleans in Week 9. The Saints allowed the second-most points to quarterbacks in 2018 and Deshaun Watson finished as the QB3 against them in Week 1. If you’re not starting Goff in this matchup, what did you draft him for?
Verdict: Feast
Josh Allen (QB – BUF)
Highest rank: QB2. Lowest Rank: QB26.
People don’t seem to understand how good of a fantasy quarterback Allen has been since he returned from injury in Week 12 of last season. Over the seven-game period since then, Allen is averaging 214 yards and 1.3 touchdowns through the air to go with 73.4 yards and 0.9 touchdowns on the ground. Including his turnovers, that comes out to an average of 24.3 points per game. The Giants are coming off a game in which they allowed 405 yards, four touchdowns, and a perfect passer rating to Dak Prescott.
Verdict: Feast
Phillip Lindsay (RB – DEN)
Highest rank: RB17. Lowest rank: RB42.
Lindsay is in a timeshare and is going up against the second stingiest rush defense from a year ago. The Bears bottled up Aaron Jones in week one and Lindsay is unlikely to get enough touches in this one to overcome the matchup.
Verdict: Famine
Sony Michel (RB – NE)
Highest rank: RB7. Lowest rank: RB33.
A lot of people are down on Michel after his rough Week 1 showing, but the truth is that Pittsburgh was a tough matchup for him to begin with. The Ravens obliterated the Dolphins on the ground last week and the Patriots are in a prime position to do the same.
The only danger with Michel is New England going up by 45 in the first quarter and resting their starters the rest of the way – but that’s a risk you should be willing to take.
Verdict: Feast
Adrian Peterson (RB – WAS)
Highest rank: RB13. Lowest rank: RB43.
If there’s one thing that I’ve learned over the last two seasons it’s that I should never underestimate Adrian Peterson. In 2017, when it looked like he was washed, he signed with the Cardinals and posted 134 yards and two scores in his first game with the team. In his first game with the Redskins in 2018, he totaled 166 yards and a score. There’s no doubt that AD will be fired up after not even making the active roster in Week 1. The Cowboys allowed 120 yards on the ground to Saquon Barkley last week … on just 11 carries. AD is worth a start this week.
Verdict: Feast
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR – PIT)
Highest rank: WR1. Lowest rank: WR26.
Three things are certain in life: Death, taxes, and Bill Belichick taking away the other team’s top weapon. Smith-Schuster was contained in Week 1, but that was to be expected. This week JuJu will face a defense that just allowed 158 yards and two touchdowns to John Ross. The 22-year-old should see plenty of volume in a game where James Conner could struggle to find room to run. He’s a high-end WR1 this week.
Verdict: Feast
Robby Anderson (WR – NYJ)
Highest rank: WR26. Lowest rank: WR68.
Including Week 1, Robby Anderson has had fewer than 45 yards in 17 of his last 31 (55%) games. If you’re starting Anderson, you’re hoping for one of those explosive performances that are few and far in-between. With Sam Darnold, Anderson would probably not be an advisable start against Denzel Ward. Without Darnold, keep him on your bench.
Verdict: Famine
Larry Fitzgerald (WR – ARI)
Highest rank: WR18. Lowest rank: WR49.
Over the last two seasons, Fitzgerald has had six games with at least 90 yards and a score. His lines following those games: 4/32/1, 3/29/0, 3/12/0, 5/44/0, 8/55/0, and 6/50/0. I’m a believer in weird patterns and I’m also a believer in the Ravens defense. Thanks to an elite secondary, Baltimore allowed the seventh-fewest points to receivers in 2018. Fitz is more of a middling WR3 for this one.
Verdict: Famine
Jared Cook (TE – NO)
Highest rank: TE5. Lowest rank: TE21.
As a member of the Raiders, Cook baptized the Rams for 180 yards to open the season last year. When the Saints and Rams squared off in Week 9, Ben Watson posted his highest fantasy output of the season. With Talib and Peters occupying Michael Thomas, this should be a game where Cook is featured. He’s a recommended start this week.
Verdict: Feast
If you want to know where I stand on any other players, please check out my rankings below or Tweet me at @ElishaTwerski.
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Elisha Twerski is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Elisha, check out his archive or follow him @ElishaTwerski.
