It was a nice start to the new PGA Tour season as Joaquin Niemann won his first PGA Tour event at the Greenbrier Classic. Niemann completely dominated the field and ended up winning the tournament by six strokes. It was the first time a native of Chile has ever won a PGA event, so it was a huge breakthrough for the young 20-year-old phenom.
The PGA Tour now heads to Jackson, Mississippi for the Sanderson Farms Championship. Similar to last week, the field is not overly strong, and we will see a slew of young talent teeing off. Joaquin Niemann is the favorite, followed by tour veterans Brandt Snedeker and Byeong Hun An. We can expect this event to be another birdie fest, so we will look to find some value with our lineup construction.
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Course Preview
This week’s Sanderson Farms Championship will be played at the Country Club of Jackson. It is one of the longer courses on the tour, measuring 7,421 yards. It is a par 72 and the greens are Bermuda grass. Despite being the ninth-longest golf course on Tour last year, shorter, accurate golfers found great success here. This is because the fairways are narrow, and a lot of golfers need to club down to increase accuracy. There are four par 5s on the track, and they are very scorable.
Key Stats
Since this is is the second event of the new PGA season, it is difficult to assess recent form. I will be relying on course history when selecting my betting picks along with how golfers perform in several key statistical categories. Par-5 scoring is big this week since there are four of them. Last year, nearly 60% of the birdies were piled up on these holes. Golfers will need to be accurate off the tee and have sharp iron play. Strokes gained approach is always a key stat to look at every week. The majority of approach shots this week will be between 150-175 yards.
Salary Analysis
The only player priced in the $17,000 range is last weeks’ champion, Joaquin Niemann, at $17,500. This is giving the young star a lot of respect, and I would suggest starting your lineup in the $16,000 range. Talented golfers such as Sungjae Im, Brandt Snedeker, Scottie Scheffler, and Byeong Hun An make up this range and all have a strong chance to win this week. There is a ton of flexibility with the pricing this week, and the $12,000 to $15,000 range is loaded with solid options. I will be attacking this price range when constructing my lineup, as I feel it will provide you with leverage over the competition.
Best Plays above $15,000
Scottie Scheffler $16,200
The leading points leader on the Korn Ferry Tour last year, Scheffler started off his 2019-20 PGA Tour campaign in impressive fashion last week at the Greenbrier Classic. He finished in a tie for third after shooting 13-under par. Even more impressive, Scheffler led the field in strokes gained tee-to-green, greens-in-regulation, and proximity to the hole. If he can find a little more success with the putter this week, I expect Scheffler to make another strong run at the championship.
Brian Harman $15,800
Harman is in excellent form as of late. In his last eight Tour events last season, Harman had three top-10 finishes. He carried that momentum into the Greenbrier Classic where he shot 14-under par to tie for third place. I have the sense he is getting very close to a win, and this track should suit his eye.
Corey Conners $15,600
The young Canadian won his first PGA Tour event last year and had a solid finish to the 2019-20 season. Conners finished runner-up at this event last year and is one of the best approach players in the field. He is top three in proximity between 150-175 yards and led the entire PGA in greens-in-regulation last year.
Best Plays in the $14,000 range
Sebastian Munoz $14,500
Munoz is someone that has been popping in my custom model over the last couple of months. He had six top-25 finishes last season and is coming off a T-7 finish at the Greenbrier Classic. Third in strokes gained-off-the-tee and sixth in strokes gained: approach last week, Munoz makes for a strong play here.
Denny McCarthy $14,400
The best putter on the PGA Tour last year, McCarthy is always a solid play in a birdie-fest tournament. He had a solid showing last week, finishing T-31 at the Greenbrier Classic. McCarthy also finished T-7 here last year.
Kevin Streelman $14,100
This is a misprice for one of the best golfers in this field. He is the model of consistency with his ball-striking and iron play. Streelman also has two top-20 finishes here within the last three years.
Best Plays in the $13,000 range
Tom Hoge $13,900
This is a solid price for a golfer who has all aspects of his game working right now. Hoge finished second last week at the Greenbrier Classic with an impressive 15-under performance. The underlying stats look awesome as well. He gained strokes in every important metric and seems to have figured out a few things. He has always been a very solid iron player, as he finished 39th in strokes gained: approach last season.
Matt Jones $13,800
Jones quietly put in a T-10 finish last week at the Greenbrier Classic. He finished sixth in both strokes gained:off-the-tee, and strokes gained:tee-to-green. He will now return to Bermuda grass greens on which he normally putts his best.
Doc Redman $13,500
This course should suit the eye of Redman, as he is exceptional off-the-tee and rates out as one of the best in the field with his long irons. According to my model, Redman is 14th in birdie or better, 16th in GIR, 12th in driving accuracy, and 21st in par-4 scoring.
Best Plays in the $12,000 range
Adam Long $12,800
Long broke through with his first PGA Tour win last year at the Desert Classic. He was knocking on the door again last week at the Greenbrier Classic. Long finished T-14 with a solid 10-under-par performance. He lost an average of 1.09 strokes per round on the Greens, and if he can find his putter this week, I expect and even better result. Long was second in the field in strokes gained: tee-to-green and ninth in strokes gained: approach last week.
Brian Stuard $12,800
Stuard finished fourth here in 2017 and his game suits the course well. He is one of the most accurate drivers of the golf ball, ranking eighth in driving accuracy last year. He has a solid approach game and despite being a short hitter, he knows how to plot his way around a longer course like the Jackson Country Club.
Sam Ryder $12,600
Ryder had a solid T-31 showing at the Greenbrier Classic, but his week could have been a whole lot better if his putter cooperated. His putter is surely due for positive regression as he finished 23rd on Tour in strokes gained: putting, last year. He finished 15th in strokes gained: approach at the Greenbrier Classic last week and his irons dialed in.
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Nic Turner is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nic, check out his archive and follow him @sportzbandit.
