Monkey Knife Fight Best Bet Week 3 (2019 Fantasy Football)
Welcome to Monkey Knife Fight. The hottest new name in the DFS arena, Monkey Knife Fight offers a unique experience. They have various offerings to choose from. Their lines and offerings are dynamic and often change all the way up until gametime (our friends at Monkey Knife Fight have agreed to temporarily lock the totals for the contest we will feature below to allow our readers to participate). Let’s take a look at some of their contests.
Their contest called reception perception allows you to predict three players that will combine for a reception total that surpasses the total you choose before the game (the higher the total, the higher the payout). Another contest they offer is the Fantasy Challenge. This contest requires you to choose three players that will combine to eclipse a set amount of fantasy points.
However, the contests that may be most attractive to fantasy players are Rapidfire and their Over/Under contests. There are two versions of each, a fantasy version and a more traditional prop based offering. The fantasy version calls for players to predict head to head outcomes of a set of players. For example, Rapidfire asks players to predict which player between Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson will have the most passing yards. Jackson gets a +50.5 spread. The fantasy version asks players to predict which player will have the most fantasy points. Jackson (the number one fantasy QB) gets a +1.5 point spread over Patrick Mahomes (the current number three fantasy QB).
The Over/Under contests arguably offer the most appeal to fantasy football players. The fantasy version calls for players to predict whether a player will score more or less fantasy points than the posted total. These ‘fantasy props’ are revolutionary and are offerings anyone with a weekly DFS bankroll should look into. An example of a contest posted at the time of writing is Sammy Watkins over or under 16.5 fantasy points. In the same contest (every offering requires at least two predictions) Mark Ingram’s total is posted at 13.5.
However, the contests with perhaps the most weekly appeal are the Over/Under stat totals. Sticking with the Chiefs vs Ravens examples there is a Travis Kelce total of 80.5 receiving yards, and a Mark Andrews total of 4.5 receptions. Players are simply asked to predict whether the players will go over or under the posted total. Fantasy football players have an edge when it comes to prop betting. They often see and understand the statistical side of football at a high level and are often able to immediately spot values. The Philadelphia Eagles vs Detroit Lions contest had an over/under total for Zach Ertz of just 72.5 receiving yards. That was a fine total when Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson were healthy, but is one to target with Jackson ruled out and Jeffery looking more doubtful than questionable. Let’s take a look at the specific contest offering that perhaps offers the most appeal.
Chicago Bears vs. Washington
Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS) over 52.5 receiving yards
Terry McLaurin has been a revelation for Washington. After Dwayne Haskins asked his new team to draft one of his Ohio State receivers, Washington went out and drafted Terry McLaurin in the third round. No one in the organization expected him to be this good, this quick, but McLaurin showed he was just that with an outstanding training camp. His emergence allowed the team to pull the plug on failed first-round pick Josh Doctson.
After two weeks of football, the speedster has emerged as the number one receiver for Washington. He has seen an average of eight targets, five receptions, 93.5 receiving yards and a touchdown over his two contests. McLaurin managed to impress in Week 2 despite drawing stud cornerback Byron Jones for most of the day. He hauled in five of his nine targets for 62 yards and a score.
In Week 3 McLaurin will spend most of Monday night locked in a battle with a Prince Amukamara. He is a talented and sometimes stingy corner in his own right, but he is not even in the same tier as Byron Jones. Bears number one corner Kyle Fuller man’s the opposite side of the field which gives McLaurin the more ‘favorable’ outside corner to contend with.
Although they are two completely different offenses, a clear pattern has emerged with how Keemun treats his top two receivers. McLaurin is manning the Stefon Diggs 1a role while Trey Quinn is manning the slot receiver Adam Thielen 1b role. 52.5 yards in an offense that is going to find it hard to run against Khalil Mack and the Bears appear to be a terrific value. He has crossed this total in both of his contests and is averaging 40+ yards more than the posted total. The fact that this line is not a negative juice proposition and can be paired and parlayed with another attractive line is just icing on the cake. ‘Scary Terry’ has a reception that has gone for longer than the total for this contest. McLaurin over 50 yards at plus money is a tremendous value.
David Montgomery (RB – CHI) over 58.5 rushing yards
David Montgomery saw a major role expansion in Week 2. He led the backfield with 19 touches, with his 18 carries going for 62 yards against a tough Broncos front seven. Washington’s defense is a different story. They have surrendered 4.7 yards per carry and have allowed 124.5 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. If Montgomery is given a similar workload to what he saw last week he should go well over the posted total against Washington.
While Montgomery does not have top-tier straight-line speed, the rest of his skillset indeed borders on the elite. He is a physical runner that has elite contact balance, cutting ability, and vision. Anyone who has taken in a Chicago Bears game this season has been able to witness these traits on display. While he has been used minimally in the passing game, he also has good hands. His elite ability to shed tackles and make defenders miss makes him a potentially elite option out of the backfield (though without the same juice someone like teammate Tarik Cohen has). Washington has some talent in their front seven, but have nonetheless been vulnerable to the run.
Mike Davis looked pitiful once again in Week 2 and could see his snaps further reduced in a game the Bears are Vegas favorites in. Tarik Cohen will continue to see his snaps, but the good news here is that Montgomery and Cohen have shared the field on multiple occasions when Cohen lines up in the slot. The only reason the posted total was not set higher is that the snap and carry count for the Bears running back has been seemingly impossible to predict. After seeing just seven Week 1 touches, the rookie saw his workload explode to 19 touches and 21 opportunities (18 carries, three targets) in Week 2.
Gameflow may often dictate how many touches Montgomery receives on a weekly basis. As the Green Bay Packers publicly pointed out, Mitch Trubisky is not going to beat teams on his own. Playing from behind means Tarik Cohen and even Mike Davis (who Matt Nagy is seemingly high on) may be more involved. If the Bears are in neutral or positive game script situations their prized rookie runner should be fed all the touches he can handle. Chicago is currently pegged as four-point road favorites which suggests Montgomery will have his second consecutive contest with more than 15 carries. As mentioned above, Washington has allowed 4.7 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Lock him in.