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Monkey Knife Fight Best Bets Week 1 (2019 Fantasy Football)

by Raju Byfield | @FantasyContext | Featured Writer
Sep 6, 2019

Welcome to Monkey Knife Fight. Monkey Knife Fight is a revolutionary new DFS site that allows fantasy players and bettors to engage in prop parlays. Prop parlays allow you to increase the multiplier vs. the odds you would receive on a single bet. As detailed in our Monkey Knife Fight strategy piece, the over/under totals appear to be their best-value offerings. We have dug deep into every one of the over/under totals to bring you what looks like the three best bets of the weekend. We have placed the bets in order of confidence.

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Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins (O/U 3/4 (2.23x))

Ryan Fitzpatrick over 210.5 passing yards
This appears to be a “gimme” line. The 210.5 passing yard mark is pretty low for Fitzpatrick, who surpassed it in every 2018 start in which he threw over 22 pass attempts. In a game with a spread that jumped from +4 to +6.5, we can be sure that Fitzpatrick is going to be forced to air it out. Albeit with a better host of receivers, Fitzpatrick averaged 295.8 yards last season. This is a number that includes the contests he was benched in or came on for Jameis Winston in. In the games that he had more than 22 pass attempts in, he averaged 375.8 passing yards per contest. 

Mark Andrews over 38.5 receiving yards
Mark Andrews was a trendy redraft sleeper at tight end for a reason. While he did have multiple duds with Lamar Jackson under center in 2018, he averaged 44 yards per contest. He achieved that average despite totaling just 19 yards against Cincinnati and zero yards against Kansas City. Andrews continued to build chemistry with Jackson throughout the offseason and is expected to be a focal point of a revamped offensive scheme tailored to Lamar Jackson‘s strengths. He will have to contend with two hot-shot rookie wideouts eating up targets, but with Jackson expected to see a spike from the 22.57 pass attempts per game he averaged last season, Andrews should still be one of Jackson’s top targets, if not his number one. In what could be a coming-out party for the entire Ravens offense, Andrews at such a low number appears to be a steal. 

Mark Ingram over 68.5 rushing yards
Mark Ingram averaged just 53.8 yards per contest last season. Of course, that number needs to be contextualized, as he was sharing the backfield with Alvin Kamara, one of the most talented and explosive running backs in the league. In the contests Ingram received more than a backups’ workload, he was much more impressive. In the games he saw 13 or more carries, he averaged 75 yards per contest. Expected to see up to 20 carries in Week 1, Ingram should easily pass the posted total of 68.5. Ingram averaged 70.3 rushing yards per contest in 2017. Playing in a game with a low total of 37.5 suggests that this could be a run-heavy contest for a Ravens team favored by 6.5 points. 

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots (O/U 2/2 (2.47x))

JuJu Smith-Schuster over 87.5 receiving yards
With Antonio Brown out of town, JuJu Smith-Shuster is expected to see healthy does of Stephon Gilmore in Week 1. As per Tagz’ (our Mike Tagliere) Week 1 primer, JuJu saw just 31.1 percent of his snaps in the slot with Antonio Brown out in Week 17 of last season. After thriving while playing out of the slot on 63.7 percent of his snaps from Weeks 1 to 16, this is a concern. However, the Steelers added an outside receiver in Donte Moncrief, and they appear to have two capable young receivers who can play on the outside in James Washington and Diontae Johnson. This should allow JuJu to see over 50 percent of his snaps in the slot. JuJu averaged 89.1 yards per contest last season, but he put up a lowly four reception, 40-yard effort against the Patriots last season despite a team-high 10 targets. JuJu should be sprayed with targets when he works out of the slot, and he should still see some looks when playing out wide despite the presence of Gilmore.

Julian Edelman over 6.5 receptions
Julian Edelman averaged 6.2 receptions per game last season and is expected to see a slight uptick with Rob Gronkowski no longer sharing the middle of the field. Edelman posted seven receptions for 90 yards against Pittsburgh last season in an otherwise low-scoring affair. With a Vegas over/under of 49.5 points, there should be plenty of scoring in this contest. It is perfectly plausible that this becomes a ground-oriented battle, but that will not exclude Edelman from getting his targets. He saw 11 in last years contest and should crack the double-digit barrier once again in Week 1. Receptions over is a safer bet than yardage over when it comes to Edelman, as this is a contest projected to turn into a shootout. 

Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings (O/U 2/2 (2.31x))

Julio Jones over 92.5 receiving yards
Julio Jones averaged an incredible 104.8 yards per game in 2018. That number sat at 90.3 in 2017 and over 100 per contest for four consecutive seasons between 2013 and 2016. Adding fuel to the fire of this total is the fact that Julio Jones averaged more receiving yards on the road last season. He averaged 109.8 on the road vs. 99.9 per contest at home. This is a trend that has held for his entire career, as Jones has averaged 101.4 on the road vs. 91.9 at home. This is because Matt Ryan has more passing yards in road contests. Doing battle with Xavier Rhodes will be no picnic, but as long as Matt Ryan does not avoid him for quarters at a time, Jones is still a good bet to go over the posted total. 

Dalvin Cook over 75.5 rushing yards
On the surface, this may look like one of the riskier totals I have included in this week’s Monkey Knife Fight’s best bets column. With Cook returning to full health, the Vikings recommitted to the run which helped propel him to average 77.4 rushing yards over his final five games of the season. An entire season removed from his ACL tear, Dalvin Cook should get all the touches he can handle in a contest the Vikings are favored by four in. 

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his profile and follow him @FantasyContext.