Monkey Knife Fight Over/Under Strategy & Bears vs. Packers Picks
One of the most intriguing new platforms in the prop and fantasy industries is the new offering from our friends over at Monkey Knife Fight. It is a slick combination of the two that offers tremendous potential value to both avid prop bettors and fantasy players looking for new and exciting avenues to build a bankroll.
Props are, and always have been, the arena where fantasy sports players have a distinct advantage. We can spot what looks like a value the instant we see it. The fantasy sports player is also familiar enough with home/road splits, the effect of weather, defensive production allowed, and Vegas’ totals on potential production of football players.
Monkey Knife Fight provides a unique opportunity and experience. There is no contingent better than the fantasy sports community to take advantage of said opportunity to turn a profit. Let’s take a look at what looks like their best value offering.
Over/Unders: The Best Values?
Delving through Monkey Knife Fight’s offerings, it is glaringly apparent where the best values seem to lie. They lie in the over/under stat totals. The recommendation here is to not get over complicated or chase the high multipliers. The increased risk for each extra total added needs to be weighed against the potential return.
Getting the opportunity to essentially parlay props outside of brick and mortar casinos has long held prop players back from realizing their true profit potential. Monkey Knife Fight allows you to do just that. An example of this is the over/under 2/2s. Of course, the 3/3s to 5/5s offer a much higher return potential, but if the goal is low-risk growth of your bankroll it is suggested you stick with the lower risk and higher win probability 2/2s.
Search for ideal pairings
There are multiple over/under offerings at Monkey Knife Fight for each team, so analyzing each of them is critical to finding the best values. The Week 1 Thursday Night Football slate has five over/unders. Going in with the mindset of chasing the highest multiplier is not suggested. Exploiting poorly set lines is and should be our goal. As we will discuss in our predictions piece later this week, the 2.44 multiplier for the Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears game actually turns out to be the best value.
A two player simple over/under indeed appears to be the best value on the board. As the betting crowd knows well, value often takes priority over payout or multiplier. The 2/2s give you the opportunity to realize a parlay type of multiplier while also keeping the risk to a minimum. Of course, the higher multipliers are very attractive, but similar to parlays at casinos and sportsbooks, they are where Monkey Knife Fight will make most of their money.
Timing of contest posting
One of the most attractive opportunities Monkey Knife Fight will present is the potential ability to get lines that are not influenced by sportsbooks lines. MKF will be posting their lines early in the week. This will be similar to what we see from DFS sites.
However, when we are talking about over/unders for what amounts to player props, this means there will undoubtedly be lines that are set below, and sometimes above what Vegas will set them at later in the week. This is where we make our money.
Seek value, not action
It is important to avoid committing to a certain game before seeing the lines and odds. This is something that is most prevalent with prime time games but can also sometimes occur during afternoon games. Deciding before seeing the line that you want action on a particular player or contest can prove costly. This is especially true when you are combining or parlaying more than one prop.
Picks for Thursday Night Football: Packers vs. Bears
Geronimo Allison (WR – GB): Over 3.5 Receptions
Before his injury last season, Allison caught five or more passes in three of his four full games. In fact, he averaged over seven targets per game over that span, and now he’s working primarily out of the slot, a role that has been heavily targeted over the years by Aaron Rodgers. Expect Allison to hit the over.
Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB): Over 270.5 Passing Yards
Rodgers hit the over on this total in each of his games against the Bears last year. That was while playing through an injury in what was arguably his worst season as a pro. Even if the Bears’ defense doesn’t take a small step back this year — which many are expecting — Rodgers will likely come out of the gates with a big chip on his shoulder, ready to make a statement to begin the Mike McCarthy-less era.