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We finally made it! The 2019 NFL regular season is upon us and our featured experts are back again to give you more weekly advice for your lineups. Every week, a select group of analysts will give you their top sleeper starts (lesser-known players who might be viable fantasy options for the week) and their biggest duds (star players who are in bad situations or face a difficult matchup). Combined with our tools, podcasts, rankings, and projections, you will have all the help you need to dominate your league right at your fingertips. Without further ado, here are the 13 players you should consider starting or tempering your expectations for.
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Q1. Who is a player outside of our top 100 flex rankings that is a deep sleeper start and why do you think he has upside this week?
Ted Ginn (WR – NO) vs. HOU
“Ginn is still the No. 2 receiver in the Saints’ offense and that has plenty of value, right? Especially when they’re playing a team that saw an average of 20 wide receiver targets per game last year. They did lose Jadeveon Clowney, which will impact their pass rush, too. Ginn has played in 20 games with the Saints. In those games, he’s been a WR3 or better in 10 of them. Those are pretty good numbers for a guy who’s on a lot of waiver wires. Ginn lines up all over the formation, so he’ll see a mix of the Texans’ cornerbacks that didn’t allow many top-end performances last year, but did allow plenty of competent ones. In a game that has an over/under of 53.5 points, the Saints are going to be throwing more than normal, and Ginn should see five-plus targets. He’s on the WR4 radar.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)
Nyheim Hines (RB – IND) @ LAC
“Hines was at his best last season in games that the Colts lost, averaging 7.7 targets, 6.5 receptions, and 39.5 receiving yards while scoring twice in the Colts’ six losses. He also chipped in with 18.5 rushing yards in those games for a PPR average of 14.3 points per game. With the loss of quarterback Andrew Luck to retirement, the Colts could find themselves on the short side of the scoreboard more often this season, including in Week 1 where they are about a touchdown underdog against the Chargers. Meanwhile, the Chargers allowed a league-high 60.5 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs last season.”
– Brad Richter (DailyOverlay)
Tre’Quan Smith (WR – NO) vs. HOU
“Smith enters 2019 with an outspread range of outcomes. There’s major upside in New Orleans’ high-powered offense, but he also concluded four games without a catch last season. All of his breakouts came inside the Superdome, where he tallied 350 yards and five touchdowns in seven games. The Saints host the Texans in Week 1’s highest-projected contest, so there’s a feasible chance Smith starts the season strong.”
– Andrew Gould (FantasyPros)
Justice Hill (RB – BAL) @ MIA
“Hill is an extremely intriguing option for me to roll out in my flex spot right out of the gates. Every move from Miami this offseason has indicated that they are not out to win this season and their defense is lacking difference-makers in all areas aside from Xavien Howard and Minkah Fitzpatrick. The Ravens are going to run all over the Dolphins this week and Mark Ingram and Lamar Jackson are going to have field days. With that being said, I believe the Ravens will be up enough that Hill will see a significant amount of carries in this game as well. If you’re looking for a flex option with upside, Hill is your best deep option.”
– Kyle Yates (The Fantasy Footballers)
Frank Gore (RB – BUF) @ NYJ
“At least for one week, Gore should be a solid safe start. The always steady Gore is sure to get a good amount of work for the Bills this week as they begin to mix in Devin Singletary. It’s not the most exciting start of the week, but it should be a safe one. I’m expecting Gore to receive the majority of the work, around 15 carries or so, in what looks to be a good matchup against a Jets team that gave up 126 yards a game on the ground in 2018.”
– Craig Phillips (FF Prophet)
Tony Pollard (RB – DAL) vs. NYG
“If Ezekiel Elliott‘s plan is 20-25 reps, and the Cowboys are favored by a touchdown over the Giants, isn’t Pollard still a decent bet for 12-14 touches against a potentially terrible Giants defense? If you drafted Pollard, this might be your only chance to use him!”
– John Halpin (RotoWire)
Dion Lewis (RB – TEN) @ CLE
“Not only do I like Lewis as a sleeper pick for the season, I like him this week too. He has a favorable matchup from a game-script standpoint as the Browns are likely to get up big. This will result in Lewis seeing plenty of work as a pass-catcher while the Titans play catch-up.”
– Joe Bond (Fantasy Six Pack)
Q2. On the flip side, what player inside the top 40 flex rankings is likely to disappoint fantasy owners this week?
Joe Mixon (RB – CIN) @ SEA
“You’re still starting Mixon, but temper expectations with Cincinnati entering Seattle as Week 1’s biggest underdog. Last season, the Bengals’ running back found the end zone once in six losses decided by seven or more points. Andy Dalton likely won’t orchestrate many red-zone visits without A.J. Green. Mixon should deliver a fine line behind elevated receiving work, but don’t count on a ground-breaking performance.”
– Andrew Gould (FantasyPros)
“The obvious one is Damien Williams with the addition of LeSean McCoy to the team. I will pick Joe Mixon to hopefully be different. Likely drafted at the back end of the first round, or at the very least, the second round, Mixon gets a tough draw to start the season against Seattle. With the addition of Jadeveon Clowney, the front seven gets even stronger than it already was, which is going to make life very difficult given how weak the Cincy O-line is.”
– Joe Bond (Fantasy Six Pack)
Amari Cooper (WR – DAL) vs. NYG
“It’s been reported that Cooper is dealing with plantar fasciitis in his foot, which is definitely not ideal. He said he’s played through it before, including his rookie year when he totaled over 1,000 yards, though there was plenty of inconsistency. The Giants’ defense has a lot of holes, though if there’s been one player who’s shown superstar ability at times, it’s Janoris Jenkins. He got better as the year went on in 2018, as he was coming back from ankle surgery. He saw Cooper most of the time in their Week 17 matchup, where Cooper netted just 5/31/0 on 11 targets. Oddly enough, Prescott threw four touchdowns in that game, so the Giants may be rethinking their strategy. Jenkins has been inconsistent enough throughout his career that you don’t run from him in a matchup, but he’s good enough to remove a player from a cash lineup. Cooper should be considered a volatile WR2 until we see him play through his current injury.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)
Aaron Jones (RB – GB) @ CHI
“Despite being a huge Jones fan for 2019, I’m worried about his matchup this week. If the 2019 Bears defense resembles the 2018 version, Jones is going to have a tough go of things in Week 1. We don’t have much to go off of as to how Jones fared against the Bears last season since he missed the opener and left after only four carries in the second matchup. But in the two games combined, the Packers only managed to gain 117 yards on the ground from their running backs.”
– Craig Phillips (FF Prophet)
Damien Williams (RB – KC) @ JAC
“Williams is the easy answer for me on this one. While the Chiefs’ offense is extremely powerful, they have a tough test in Week 1 with Jacksonville. That run defense is no joke and the Chiefs may choose to air it out even more than normal this game. Combining that with the arrival of LeSean McCoy in town, Williams has a limited ceiling both this week and moving forward. If you can afford to pivot elsewhere, I’d highly recommend sitting Williams this week.”
– Kyle Yates (The Fantasy Footballers)
Antonio Brown (WR – OAK) vs. DEN
“A few weeks ago on FantasyPros, I named Brown as the likeliest fantasy bust of 2019. He’s had a big downgrade at quarterback, and that’s on top of his yards per catch declining from 15.2 in 2017 to 12.5 last year. There’s no need to back off that stance yet against a stout Broncos defense.”
– John Halpin (RotoWire)
Julio Jones (WR – ATL) @ MIN
“Jones and the Falcons will be traveling to Minnesota to face a strong Vikings defensive unit, which includes shutdown cornerback Xavier Rhodes. The Vikings ranked third in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) against opposing No. 1 wide receivers last season, according to Football Outsiders. Jones has faced Rhodes and the Vikings three times over the last five years and has only managed to average 4.3 receptions for 54 yards and no touchdowns in those games.”
– Brad Richter (DailyOverlay)
Thank you to the experts for giving their sleeper starts and duds for Week 1. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter if you’re not already doing so and check out our latest podcast below for more great advice.
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