Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts

Total: 45.0
Line: IND by 7.0

QBs
Derek Carr: You have to give Carr credit for the 242-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Vikings last week where he completed 79.4 percent of his attempts. Much of it came in garbage time, as will be the case with him most weeks, but if there’s one negative, it’s that he’s turned into a check-down monster again. He’s averaging just 6.3 air yards per attempt, which is ahead of only Luke Falk, Joe Flacco, Sam Darnold, and Jacoby Brissett. That helps his completion-rate, which currently sits at 73.5 percent. The Colts defense has been one to attack in the early going, as they’ve allowed a 76 percent completion-rate to the combination of Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, and Philip Rivers. While that’s a tough start to a schedule, the stats back that up, as they’ve also allowed a 7.3 percent touchdown-rate and 8.24 yards per attempt. They also just lost starting free safety Malik Hooker for 4-6 weeks, which is a huge loss. They were without inside linebacker Darius Leonard last week (concussion) though it seems likely he’ll be back for this game. Carr’s up-and-down nature is always worrisome when it comes to streaming but knowing their run-game is struggling quite a bit, and that Carr totaled 244 yards and three touchdowns against the Colts defense last year, he’s at least in the conversation. The game last year was in Oakland while this one will be in Indianapolis, though the dome atmosphere is always a plus. Of the nine games played there under Frank Reich, six quarterbacks posted 16.5 or more fantasy points. Carr should be considered a middling QB2 but one who comes with a variety of outcomes. This is a matchup where he could surprise, but the concern is that the Colts have faced a max of 34 pass attempts this year. Why? Because the time of possession has been in their favor, as opponents have averaged just 28:11 with the ball, the ninth-lowest mark in the league.

Jacoby Brissett: It must not have been easy for Brissett to walk into Andrew Luck’s shadow, but he’s done a phenomenal job while completing 71.7 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns and one interception through three games. His 7.6 percent touchdown-rate surely will come down to earth, especially if he’s without star wide receiver T.Y. Hilton for any time, as he’s dealing with a quad injury that knocked him out of the Week 3 contest. The Raiders have been a secondary to pick on through three weeks, as they’ve struggled to get pressure on the opposing quarterbacks, leading them to allow 9.22 yards per attempt (3rd-highest) with a 6.3 percent touchdown-rate (9th-highest). The Colts obviously have one of the top offensive lines in the league, as Brissett has been pressured on just 27.9 percent of his dropbacks, which ranks as the ninth-lowest mark among quarterbacks who’ve played at least 25 percent of snaps. Each of the three quarterbacks the Raiders have played averaged a minimum of 8.3 yards per attempt, including Joe Flacco. The injury to Hilton is what clouds the outlook on Brissett the most, as he’s the receiver he’s targeted on 27.2 percent of his targets. If Hilton practices in full and is good to go, Brissett should be considered a high-end QB2, but if Hilton doesn’t practice much and is a game-time decision, Brissett falls back into the risky QB2 pack.

RBs
Josh Jacobs: He was touted as one of the better three-down backs coming out of the draft but has now caught just one pass through three games. That’s a bit of a problem. While he was dealing with an illness last week, he said he was fine by the time the game came around. The Colts aren’t a run-defense that should worry anyone, though they’ve definitely capped upside for a lot of running backs over the 19 games under Frank Reich. They’ve yet to allow a running back crack 100 yards on the ground against them, though they have allowed a lot of production through the air. There were a ridiculous 12 running backs who amassed five or more receptions against them last year, which included nine performances of at least 41 yards. That’s nine different occasions where they allowed 9.1 PPR points through the air alone. They’ve already allowed 38.8 PPR points through the air to running backs on the year (7th-most), so it’s happening again. The issue is that Jacobs has seen just three of the 11 targets that have gone to Raiders running backs. Knowing he played just 25-of-59 snaps last week, we’ll chalk some of that up to his illness. The Raiders didn’t draft him in the first round to ride the pine, and it’s not as if DeAndre Washington or Jalen Richard are threats to his talent. The Raiders need to let Jacobs’ talent in the passing game shine. There’s some risk, sure, but Jacobs should be in lineups as a low-end RB2 this week. *Update* Colts inside linebacker Darius Leonard appears to be out again this week as he remains in the concussion protocol, which adds appeal to Jacobs’ matchup. 

Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines: It’s safe to say that Mack is doing just fine after he tallied 18 touches against the Falcons that netted 88 total yards and a touchdown. If there was ever a game that Hines was going to be viable, it was against the Falcons, so to know that he ended that game with just five touches, it’s okay to cut bait. The Raiders looked to have turned a corner when they held the Chiefs running backs to just 32 yards on 21 carries, but that was short lived after we watched the Vikings running backs completely obliterate them for 196 yards and two touchdowns on the ground alone last week. That’s more along the lines of the team that allowed 1,902 rushing yards last year, which ranked as the second-most in the league. Their defensive line may be one of their strengths, but the Colts offensive line is likely the best in the NFL and they’re creating an average of almost two full yards before contact for their running backs. Knowing Mack is at home and a seven-point favorite in a game they may not have T.Y. Hilton, he’s going to be leaned upon. In their matchup last year, Mack tagged them for 132 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries, and that game was in Oakland. Returning home for this one, he should be locked in as a low-end RB1 whose role in the passing game hasn’t shown up on the stat sheet just yet, but he’s run 57 routes, which ranks 17th among running backs.

WRs
Tyrell Williams: The good news is that he’s caught a touchdown in every game. The bad news is that we’ve watched his yardage dip from 105, to 46, to just 29 last week. He also saw just three targets, which would be looked at as a massive problem if he didn’t catch a touchdown. One thing he has going for him right now? The Colts will be without top safety Malik Hooker, who essentially protects the top of the defense, an area where we know Williams can do some damage. The Colts also run a ton of zone coverage (more than anyone else in the league), which isn’t the best-case for Williams, who will typically get targeted with confidence in single man coverage. But knowing that Hooker is out can create issues on the backend of the defense. One miscommunication between Clayton Geathers and rookie Khari Willis could mean a big play for Williams. He’s the top receiving option outside of Waller, so we should be able to pencil him in for five-plus targets in this game. He’s a plug-and-play WR3 who will have a bumpy ride when Carr struggles, but you’ll live with the results he’s posted thus far.

Hunter Renfrow: He’s now seen 12 targets over the last two weeks from “Check-down Carr”, though it hasn’t amounted to much. His 58 yards in the two games combined isn’t going to help anyone and the Colts best cornerback might be Kenny Moore, who mans the slot when opponent’s go three-wide. He does allow a high catch-rate, but he’s kept the play in front of him, allowing just 8.2 yards per reception over the last 19 games. There’s little reason to own Renfrow, let alone to play him in this matchup.

T.Y. Hilton: We aren’t going to have any clue about Hilton until after this article posts, but we must talk about his situation. He left the game in Week 3 after he scored his touchdown and they’re saying it was his quad injury he re-aggravated. Soft tissue injuries can linger, so it’s likely that they have to shut him down for a week or two. He’s very unlikely to practice much, if at all, and knowing they have the Raiders, the Colts could view this as an opportunity to extend rookie Parris Campbell‘s role. The Raiders secondary is ripe for the taking as they’ve allowed a whopping 10.74 yards per target to wide receivers. Even if Hilton plays, you know you’re risking a zero by putting him in your lineup, which obviously has to knock him down multiple tiers in the rankings. If he suits up, you kind of have to play him as a WR3, though my best guess as of now would be that he sits this one out. In all honestly, they could decide to shut him down for two weeks with their bye looming in Week 6. *Update* Hilton has not practiced all week and is looking unlikely to play. He’s officially listed as doubtful.

Parris Campbell: With Hilton missing a full half of football last week, Campbell was tied with Zach Pascal for most snaps among Colts wide receivers. He’s only seen five targets this season after missing much of training camp with a hamstring injury, but knowing that Hilton is likely to miss this game, the door is opening for the second-rounder who is being moved all over the field, similar to the way Hilton is. If they continue to use him in the slot 50-plus percent of the time, Campbell could have a breakout week. The Raiders have stuck Lamarcus Joyner in the slot, a converted safety who isn’t doing so hot in coverage. He was also dinged-up last week but had allowed 14-of-15 passing for 119 yards before that. He also allowed a 74-yard touchdown to fellow rookie Mecole Hardman in Week 2, though it was called back to a holding penalty. You don’t have to trust him, but he’s a player who should be on fantasy rosters. If Hilton sits this game, Campbell will be on the WR4 radar as a player with upside.

Deon Cain and Zach Pascal: Both receivers are splitting snaps behind Hilton as the perimeter receiver stepping in for the injured Devin Funchess. If Hilton is forced to miss this game, like I expect him to, they’d both have a relatively high snap count against a Raiders secondary that’s allowed six wide receivers to post 10.9 or more PPR points, including four of them to score more than 16.0 PPR points. It’s not just one of them, either, as every cornerback on the roster has allowed a 100-plus quarterback rating in their coverage. It’s honestly a flip of the coin between the two, though I’d lean with Cain as the preferred option, as he was playing with Brissett through much of the preseason. They’re both hail-mary plays, but not horrible options if Hilton sits.

TEs
Darren Waller: Remember what I said about Waller once Antonio Brown left? If you did miss it, I said he was going to be the Jared Cook of the offense and command 80-plus targets. After watching him against the Broncos in a featured role, anyone can see that he’s a better football player than Cook, so the 101 targets that they gave Cook last year was well within reach for Waller. Through three weeks, he’s on pace for a ridiculous 155 targets, 139 receptions, 1,424 yards, and zero touchdowns. The touchdowns are going to come, and while the catch-rate is also sure to drop, he has the looks of someone who could produce Evan Engram-type numbers this year and be a top-five tight end. The Colts are a team that struggles with tight ends, as evidenced by Austin Hooper‘s monstrous 6/66/2 day in Week 3. To know that Hooper hasn’t ever scored more than four touchdowns in a season should give you hope for Waller’s touchdown potential this week. The Colts run a ton of zone coverage, which allows for teams to dink-and-dunk their way down the field, which Carr has done to Waller over-and-over again. It’s why we saw 10 tight ends post double-digit points against the Colts last year. Waller is a high-end TE1 this week and one who’s usable in cash lineups.

Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle: In case you haven’t heard, the Colts tight end room is just one giant timeshare. Doyle leads them with 138 snaps, while Ebron has played 93 snaps, and Mo Alie-Cox has chipped-in with 62 snaps. Ebron has seen the most targets (11) but the production between him and Doyle looks nearly identical. The 7/80/1 for Ebron looks slightly better than the 7/87/0 for Doyle but knowing both average less than three catches per game makes then somewhat unplayable most of the time. Against the Raiders, though, you have to at least contemplate it. They were horrendous against the position last year, allowing 2.28 PPR points per target while no other team allowed more than 2.17 to tight ends. Believe it or not, that makes their 2.21 PPR points per target (third-most) in 2019 is an improvement. If T.Y. Hilton misses this game, that’s going to clear up 27.2 percent of the targets, so naturally, the tight ends would get more work. Ebron has seen two red zone targets to one for Doyle, so while neither have been used extensively down there, Ebron would be the preferred option. If Hilton is out, he can be considered a borderline TE1/2 against the Raiders.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Total: 42.5
Line: NE by 7.0

QBs
Tom Brady: How many losses can Brady endure before he starts losing some of his appeal in fantasy leagues? He’s currently the No. 5 quarterback in fantasy, though it’s important to note he’s played against the Dolphins and Jets the last two weeks. The Bills defense is a complete 180 from those teams, as they’ve yet to allow a team more than 17 points against them. The competition has been weak (Jets, Giants, Bengals) but we saw this Bills defense moving in the right direction over the last few years. Most don’t realize that their defense allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2018 (yes, fewer than the Bears), as they allowed just 3,081 yards on the season while no other team allowed less than 3,354 yards. Brady himself played against them twice, finishing with 324 yards and no touchdowns in the first meeting, and then just 126 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions in the second game. Yes, the Bills have had relatively easy competition the first three weeks but allowing just 5.52 yards per attempt and a measly 2.46 percent touchdown-rate is elite. There’s been just one quarterback (Andrew Luck) who was able to finish as top-10 option against the Bills over their last 18 games, which doesn’t bode well for Brady’s chances of finishing in the QB1 conversation. He should be considered a middling QB2 in this tough matchup.

Josh Allen: How often do you see a team that’s 3-0 play at home as a seven-point underdog? When they’re playing a team that’s outscored their opponents 106-17 through three weeks. The Patriots have been a dominant defense through three weeks, though it’s important we note they’ve played the Steelers (with a less-than-100-percent Ben Roethlisberger), Dolphins, and Jets (who were on their third-string quarterback). Allen is the best of the bunch, though he’s coming off a somewhat rough game himself, averaging just 6.8 yards per attempt against the Bengals. Here’s the positive for Allen, though. The Patriots allowed a league-high 6.89 yards per carry to quarterbacks last year, though they did a solid job with Allen in Week 16 when he rushed for just 30 yards against them. They play a ton of man coverage, which forces the cornerbacks and defenders to turn their backs to the quarterback, which, in turn, gives the quarterback more of an opportunity to run the ball. In a game where Allen is likely going to have to drop back to pass more than the 40.3 times per game he has over the first three weeks. The more he drops back, the more likely he is to scramble for rushing yards, as most of his rushing yards come from scrambles, not designed runs. Against the Patriots in Week 16 last year (in New England), Allen dropped back 43 times, though he ran the ball just five times in that game for 30 yards. It’s clearly a much tougher matchup than his first three games, and knowing Allen has averaged 22.8 fantasy points in wins compared to just 12.9 points in losses is worrisome. While a lot of that sample is from last year with less options to throw to, it’s not great. Allen should be considered a relatively high-floor QB2 who may not have as much upside this week. He’s not someone you should feel you must start.

RBs
Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead: What in the world do we make of the Patriots backfield moving forward? Michel has struggled mightily, averaging just 2.4 yards per carry against mediocre run defenses, though touchdowns have salvaged his fantasy days in each of the last two weeks. Despite White being inactive last week, Michel played just 17 snaps in Week 3 (fewer than Brandon Bolden), the lowest number of snaps he’s played sine his first game as a pro (does not include Bears game last year when he was injured). I did let you know last week that there may be some consequences for his fumble in Week 2, so that could’ve contributed. Whatever the case, there’s something going on with him and it’s looking like he’s a touchdown-or-bust player in fantasy leagues. The Bills have allowed three touchdowns to running backs this year, though two of them are receiving. On the ground, the Bills have allowed just 29.7 fantasy points to running backs through three weeks, the ninth-lowest mark in the league. The reason Michel looks like he could be another good bet for a touchdown is due to the fact that the Bills struggle against the run in tight spaces, as they allowed 17 rushing touchdowns last year, the second-most in the league. Going back to 2017, which was still under Sean McDermott, they allowed 18 rushing touchdowns, the most in the NFL that year. So, in 35 games under McDermott, they’ve allowed 36 rushing touchdowns. Michel has been bad but the matchup calls for him to be in the RB3 conversation. Meanwhile, Burkhead played a season-high 56 snaps last week and out-played Michel in every way. He’s entering the “flex potential” conversation, though it’ll be good to see the split with White back in the lineup before making any concrete conclusions. Consider Burkhead an RB4 until we see it in consecutive weeks. As for White, he’s going to walk right back into his role, and it may be even bigger than it was considering Antonio Brown is gone and Edelman is banged-up. The Bills have allowed a receiving touchdown to both Le’Veon Bell and Joe Mixon, though neither of the running backs amassed more than 34 yards through the air. White should be considered a high-end RB3 who serves as Brady’s safety valve.

Devin Singletary, Frank Gore, T.J. Yeldon: It seems somewhat unlikely that Singletary would be ready to roll after just one week, though it’s possible. As always, I’ll put updates in this paragraph by Saturday morning. For now, we’ll expect him to sit another week. With him out of the lineup, the touch split went Gore 16 and Yeldon 10, closer than most expected. The Patriots have completely made their opponent’s run-game a non-factor over the first three games, allowing just 86 yards… in their three games combined. That includes James Conner and Le’Veon Bell. Knowing that Gore would be tied to the gamescript, it’s not a week to use him. He should be considered a weak RB4 option who’ll likely wind up with 50 total yards. Yeldon isn’t likely going to be a great option, either, as no running back has scored more than 10.5 PPR points against the Patriots over the first three games. In the Week 16 game against the Patriots last year, the Bills running backs combined for 42 yards on 13 attempts, with five catches for 24 yards. These guys are emergency options only this week. *Update* Singletary has practiced on a limited basis on Thursday and Friday, so he’s not ruled out for this game. Even if he plays, he’s best left on fantasy benches until we see him back in a full-time role. 

WRs
Josh Gordon: Not only was Edelman hurt during last week’s game, but Gordon had to check out a few times himself. He played 67-of-76 snaps, so it wasn’t anything major, but it’s still something to monitor. His matchup this week will be a tough one against Tre’Davious White, the cornerback who limited him to just four catches and 42 yards in their matchup last year. White has been someone for opposing quarterbacks to avoid in coverage over the first three weeks, as he’s allowed just 11 catches for 118 yards on 17 targets while intercepting two passes. He’s not Jalen Ramsey-type shutdown cornerback, but more of a limiting cornerback who has lapses at times. His toughest tasks last year included matchups against other sizeable receivers, as both Davante Adams and Kenny Golladay posted more than 16.0 PPR points against them. Knowing the Patriots are starting to miss many of their targets, we’re likely to see more 11-target games from Gordon, like the one we saw in Week 3. This is a tough matchup, which bumps him down a tad, but he should still be considered a high-end WR3 this week. He’d get a slight bump if Edelman were to miss this game, as his target floor/ceiling would rise.

Julian Edelman: It’s hard to say how to feel about Edelman early in the week, as he suffered a rib injury that knocked him out of the game last week. He’s 33 years old, so injuries might take more time than most to come back from. The word as of Monday was that he “hasn’t been ruled out for this week,” though that’s a very ominous statement. This would be a plus matchup for him, too, as the Bills have now allowed 14/99/0 to Jamison Crowder, 3/38/1 to T.J. Jones, and 6/67/0 to Tyler Boyd as the primary slot receivers they’ve played this year. A large part of that is because starting nickel cornerback Taron Johnson has been out the last two weeks, though we can’t pretend he’s someone to fear in coverage. If Edelman really is fine and practices in full by the end of the week, you’ll want to play him as a WR2 who presents some risk of re-injury, but if he’s out there, we have to assume he’s ready to roll. *Update* He’s been a limited participant throughout the week, so it appears he’s going to play this week. 

Phillip Dorsett: He’s played in two games without Antonio Brown this year. In those two games, he’s seen 11 targets, catching 10 of them for 148 yards and three touchdowns. Were they good matchups? Yes. Will he continue seeing good matchups considering the other options on the roster? Yes. This matchup is difficult for a few reasons. One, because the Bills simply haven’t allowed big performances to quarterbacks, which obviously trickles down to wide receivers. The Bills allowed just nine wide receivers score 14.9 or more fantasy points (the average WR2 performance) against them last year, which ranked as the fifth-fewest in the NFL. Through three games, just one receiver has hit that mark this year (Jamison Crowder). Similar to John Ross last week, these guys can pay off on one play, though the odds aren’t in their favor in this game. Consider Dorsett a middling WR4 in a tough matchup.

John Brown: After seeing 18 targets through the first two games, we felt really good about Brown’s fantasy floor, though the five targets he saw in Week 3 brought us back down to earth a bit. His matchup this week might bring us a bit closer to earth, as he’s likely going to get the Stephon Gilmore treatment. Proclaimed the No. 1 cornerback in the league by many, there’s no denying he’s top-three. Through three games, he’s held Robby Anderson to 3/11/0, DeVante Parker to 0/0/0, and JuJu Smith-Schuster to 6/78/0. While he hasn’t been in coverage the entire game on those receivers, those were the No. 1 options that he was primarily responsible for. Brown is clearly the No. 1 threat on the Bills roster, making him a worrisome play in Week 4, though it helps knowing that Allen is willing to throw it to him when he’s one-on-one. He’s still on the fantasy radar because of that, but he’s stuck in the middling WR4 conversation against Gilmore.

Cole Beasley: It’s gone somewhat under the radar, but Beasley has 23 targets through the first three games, which ranks among the top-25 at the wide receiver position. He’s caught 17 of them for 171 yards, so he’s making them count, too, though he hasn’t scored yet. The Patriots have Jonathan Jones handling the slot responsibilities, and he’s done a good job, allowing just six catches for 58 yards on 10 targets in coverage. The Patriots defense is firing on all cylinders right now and haven’t allowed a receiver to finish inside the top-35 yet. Beasley should be rostered with bye weeks coming, though this isn’t a week to rely on him for anything more than WR5/6 production.

TEs
Matt LaCosse and Ryan Izzo: We don’t know if LaCosse will be active for this game considering he’s missed two of the first three games, including the Week 3 game against the Jets. It’s an ankle injury, so even if he comes back, they could limit him. Against the Bills, you shouldn’t even be thinking about starting either of them, as the Bills have been one of the ‘avoid’ matchups at tight end. They’ve allowed just 5.60 yards per target on the season, which picks up from where they left off last year when they allowed just 5.89 yards per target to tight ends (ranked as the second-best mark in football). Carry on.

Dawson Knox: Yes, he had a big catch against the Bengals last week. Yes, they had trouble tackling him (what else is new?). Does that mean you should trust a tight end who has yet to see more than four targets in an NFL game? The Patriots are going to do a good job taking away John Brown and Cole Beasley, who just happen to be Josh Allen‘s favorite targets. Through the last two weeks, Knox has run 41 routes compared to just 16 for Tommy Sweeney, so it’s becoming less of a timeshare. The Patriots may have allowed just six catches and 86 yards to the tight end position through three weeks, but they’ve faced just nine targets. That 9.56 yards per target amounts to the seventh-most in football, though it is admittedly a small sample size. There were 10 tight ends who totaled at least 9.3 PPR points against the Patriots last year, so he’s not the worst of streamers if you’re in a real pinch.

Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans

Total: 46.0
Line: HOU by 5.0

QBs
Kyle Allen: The Panthers wasted no time ruling out Cam Newton for Week 4 after they watched Allen throw four touchdowns against the struggling Cardinals defense. It makes sense considering Allen has thrown six touchdowns in his last two starts, while Newton has thrown no touchdowns in his last four starts. The Texans have allowed a league-high 86 completions in the first three games, highlighting that teams know they can move the ball through the air on them. Each of the three quarterbacks have finished as top-15 options against them, which included Gardner Minshew. It seems similar to last year, as the Texans faced an average of 36.9 pass attempts per game, which ranked sixth-most in the league. Through three games this year, they’ve faced 40.7 pass attempts per game, third-most in the league. Oddsmakers also view this as a game that’ll have the Panthers falling behind, which again, bodes well for the pass-attack. Allen has weapons at every level with McCaffrey as a safety value, Olsen as a check-down, Moore as a guy who can create after the catch, and Samuel as someone who can rip the top off the defense. The Texans have pressured both Minshew and Rivers quite heavily the last two weeks (both over 46 percent), which could get to Allen, though he was calm under pressure in Week 3, completing 5-of-9 passes for 37 yards and two touchdowns. The fact that the Panthers are projected for just 20.5 points is worrisome, but Allen can most definitely fill in as a streamer in 2QB formats. There are better options available in most standard leagues, however.

Deshaun Watson: Many will continue to dissect the offensive line, but Watson himself needs to get the ball out quicker. He’s averaged 3.09 seconds to throw, which ranks as the third longest in football. He’s often dancing around trying to push the ball down the field, but knowing he doesn’t have a great offensive line, he should be checking his underneath options, like Duke Johnson. The Panthers have pressured the quarterback at least 30 percent of the time in each of their three games, which only seven teams have done through three weeks. In the end, though, Watson has played well under pressure, compiling a 99.7 QB Rating, which ranks sixth-best among quarterbacks who’ve started at least two games this year. The Panthers are going through some personnel changes on the defense, but have now held both Jared Goff and Kyler Murray to less than 5.0 yards per attempt. On the year, their 5.30 yards per attempt allowed ranks as the second-best behind only the Patriots. Jameis Winston was able to put together some solid drives, though he had Chris Godwin to help with that. If Watson wants to succeed in this matchup, he must learn to love the middle of the field against the Panthers. After finishing as the QB3 in Week 1, the QB22 in Week 2, then the QB4 in Week 3, Watson is going to be a mixed bag if he keeps holding onto the ball. Against the Panthers pass-rush, he’s going to have to get rid of the ball faster than he’d like, making him a middling QB1 instead of a high-end one. It doesn’t help to know that the Panthers allowed just one quarterback more than 27 yards rushing last year. *Update* He’d get a bump if Panthers starting cornerback Donte Jackson is unable to play (he’s missed practice both Thursday and Friday).

RBs
Christian McCaffrey: The panic on McCaffrey after one bad game against the Bucs was laid to rest in Week 3 when he destroyed the Cardinals for 188 total yards and a touchdown. The Texans have really struggled against the run after losing Jadeveon Clowney this offseason, allowing 5.06 yards per carry, which ranks as the fifth-most in the league. Compare that to their league-low 3.13 yards per carry last season, and we have a shift in what’s been a shutdown run defense for years. Teams still haven’t attacked them on the ground, as the combination of starters (Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, and Austin Ekeler) have totaled just 37 carries (12.3 apiece) with none of them topping 15 carries in a game. That’s the biggest concern in a game where the Panthers are a five-point underdog. Fortunately, those concerns are laid to rest when you see Ekeler total 7/45 through the air, Fournette total 4/40 through the air, and Kamara total 7/72 through the air. McCaffrey saw four of Allen’s 26 targets last week, so he’s clearly not above checking down, especially when we know the Texans are bringing solid pressure. McCaffrey should be in lineups as a high-end RB1 this week. It’s not the recipe to use in cash games (on the road as an underdog), though I wouldn’t fault anyone for playing him in those contests.

Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson: Through three games, the snaps are nearly identical for these two, as Johnson has played 94 snaps to Hyde’s 93 snaps. The unfortunate part for Johnson owners is that Hyde has 41 touches to just 23 for Johnson. Gamescript will dictate touches and the Texans have won the last two games. They’re also projected to beat the Panthers this week by a reasonable amount, which means we should be planning for another Hyde game. The Panthers have gotten better every week against the run, as they’ve allowed just 143 yards on 41 carries (3.49 yards per carry) over the last two weeks, though Peyton Barber was able to sneak in a touchdown on the ground, while David Johnson caught a touchdown. Adding in the two touchdowns to Malcolm Brown in Week 1 and you have three rushing touchdowns this year. The Panthers allowed just nine rushing touchdowns last year (ranked as ninth-fewest), so clearly, the change in personnel might have something to do with it. Hyde has looked good while breaking seven tackles on his 40 carries, which ranks 19th among running backs, but he’s nothing more than a middling RB3, even in positive gamescripts, as he’s not used in the passing-game and will cede some carries to Johnson. As for Johnson, he’s seemingly playing a slightly larger role than the one he played in Cleveland, as he’s averaged just five touches per game over the last two weeks in games the Texans have won. Given they’re favorites again, Johnson should be viewed as a risky RB4 who is falling further and further behind Hyde.

WRs
D.J. Moore: Through two starts for Kyle Allen, here’s his target distribution: Olsen/Ian Thomas 14, Samuel 11, Moore 10, Jarius Wright 6, Chris Hogan/Torrey Smith 4. It’s fair to say he’s spread it around, though he gravitated towards Samuel in Week 3. With the shifting around of the Texans cornerback unit, Moore will see rookie Lonnie Johnson about 60-65 percent of the time in Week 4. He’s only in the lineup due to them releasing Aaron Colvin after Week 1. Johnson was a second-round pick who’s a bigger cornerback at 6-foot-2 and 213 pounds, though not quite quick-twitch enough to handle the versatile Moore. He’s not a ball-hawk, either, so Allen should have no issues pushing the ball his direction. If there’s a way to beat the Texans pass-rush, it’s through Moore on the shorter routes and letting him win after the catch. He should be plugged in as a high-end WR3 at the very minimum.

Curtis Samuel: As mentioned above in the Moore section, Kyle Allen has now targeted Samuel 11 times through his two starts, which includes 53 pass attempts, so a 20.8 percent target share. Not bad, eh? Samuel has turned those targets into 7/125/2, so there’s little reason to stop now. He’s moved all over the formation, so he’ll see a mix of cornerbacks, but most often it’ll be the veteran Johnathan Joseph. He’s their best cornerback and was very good for a long time, though he could struggle with the speedy Samuel. While it’s a small sample size, Joseph was targeted four times on a go-route in 2018 and he allowed two of them to be caught for 90 yards and a touchdown. Samuel’s most targeted route is the go-route. If the Panthers want to take advantage of the rookie Lonnie Johnson on the other side of the field, they should move Samuel over there, as he’s a lengthy player who runs a 4.52-second 40-yard-dash and can be burned deep. Seeing the chemistry of Allen and Samuel was nice last week and allows you to play him as an upside WR3 in a game like this.

Deandre Hopkins: It hasn’t been the start to the season that Hopkins wanted, as he’s now combined for just 11 catches and 107 yards over the last two weeks with no touchdowns. He’s faced Jalen Ramsey and Casey Hayward in those matchups, but he’s someone who usually got targeted double-digit times regardless of the matchup in years past. This week he’s going to see James Bradberry, who has definitely gone through his share of ups and downs in his career, though he’s started 2019 out with a bang, allowing a league-low 29.2 QB Rating in his coverage. It’s quite the departure from where he was headed in 2018 when he allowed six touchdowns on 101 targets in coverage. Knowing that Watson hasn’t been pushing to get the ball to Hopkins, this may be another game where Hopkins’ stat sheet isn’t exciting. He’s still going to be in lineups as a WR1 because he can win any matchup in man coverage, but he’s going to need to get more targets to be considered for cash games. He’s a sneaky tournament option with how low the perception is on him, though.

Will Fuller: After seeing just three targets in the opener, Fuller has now seen seven targets in each of his last two games, though his 17.5-yard average depth of target that ranks sixth-highest in the league has netted just 40 and 51 yards in those games. It’s only a matter of time before we see one of those two touchdown games from Fuller, though this matchup isn’t likely it. Donte Jackson is one of the cornerbacks in the league who is probably faster than Fuller and can match him stride-for-stride. He’s defended 14 go-routes in his short career, and has allowed just three receptions with no touchdowns on them. It’s not to say that’s all Fuller can do, because it’s not, but working his way back from an ACL injury has taken some time. Until we see him and Watson connect on a regular basis, he should be considered a middling WR4. *Update* Donte Jackson was downgraded in practice as the week went on with a groin injury and is now considered highly questionable. If he misses this game, Fuller would move into startable WR3 territory. 

Keke Coutee/Kenny Stills: It seemed like the Texans were ramping up Coutee’s workload, though the snaps in Week 3 went in Stills’ favor, 32-16. It wasn’t just snaps, either, as Stills saw six targets while Coutee didn’t see any. It’s a shame they’re splitting snaps, though, as the Panthers are a team to attack with slot receivers. They moved to Ross Cockrell in the slot last week, though it’s a lot of zone coverage underneath for the Panthers, so it’s all about finding that soft spot. We’ve seen Cooper Kupp catch seven passes for 46 yards, Chris Godwin catch eight passes for 121 yards and a touchdown, then Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk to combine for 15 catches for 94 yards and a touchdown last week. Stills and Coutee can definitely have value in this matchup but knowing which one is problematic. If forced to pick, it’s got to be Stills right now, though he can’t be trusted as anything more than a WR5 with Coutee stealing snaps.

TEs
Greg Olsen: Operation: Turn Back the Clock is in full effect. Olsen is currently the No. 5 tight end in PPR formats, as he’s racked-up 12 receptions for 185 yards and two touchdowns over the last two weeks. To be fair, the matchups couldn’t be better against the Bucs and Cardinals. The Texans haven’t been as giving to the position, allowing the seventh-fewest points to them through three games. That’s quite the departure from last year when they allowed the sixth-most points to the position. What changed? The competition. They’ve played against Jared Cook, James O’Shaughnessy, and Lance Kendricks through three weeks. They do have Tashaun Gipson alongside Justin Reid at safety, too, which is a slight change, though the defensive scheme remains the same. The Texans allowed 8-of-16 tight ends to score a touchdown against them last year, though it’s important to note that six of those tight ends saw at least eight targets. Olsen was targeted seven times last week, while Ian Thomas was targeted seven times when Olsen was out during Allen’s start last year, so it’s clear he likes the position. Olsen should be trotted out as a relatively safe TE1, though his ceiling is somewhat lacking compared to last week.

Jordan Akins: After totaling 73 yards and two touchdowns last week, there’s surely going to be someone reading Akins’ notes this week. My notes on him last week against the Chargers read “The fact that they’re now starting two backup safeties is appealing, but not enough to start Akins.” Apparently, it was enough. He’s still splitting the snaps and targets with Darren Fells, so it’s not like this is a clear-cut situation to target. The Panthers haven’t been a defense to shut down tight ends under Ron Rivera, though they have through three games this year, as no tight end has topped 20 yards against them, which includes O.J. Howard in Week 2. Let’s wait to see a trend with Akins before trusting him, as Week 3 was the first time he’d seen more than three targets.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants

Total: 47.0
Line: NYG by 3.0

QBs
Case Keenum: Despite the struggles of Keenum versus the Bears last week, Jay Gruden did the right thing by sticking with him, as it’s not like rookie Dwayne Haskins was going to come in and rock the Bears defense. He stuck with him and Keenum finished strong and noted after the game that there’s no quarterback change right now. That’s good for those who snagged Keenum to stream in Week 4 (in case you didn’t know, I release an article on Saturday mornings that highlights players who’ll be the top streaming options the following week). I’ve personally declared the Giants defense as “Dolphins-lite” this past week. Before you say I’m overreacting, here are the differences.

So, the next time you ask yourself why you wouldn’t start a quarterback against the Dolphins, you can ask the same thing about the Giants. Even better, they now have an offense that may be able to score points under Daniel Jones, something that’s limited the yardage against the Dolphins. If there’s a game to confidently stream Keenum, this is it, though if he starts slow again, it’d make sense to go to Haskins against the Giants. If you’re feeling lucky, Keenum makes plenty of sense for a high-end QB2 in this game, and that’s being conservative, but you have to understand the risk of him being pulled with a slow start. It also seems like the Giants will be without linebacker Alec Ogletree (hamstring), one of their better defensive players. *Update* Keenum is in a walking boot, though the team says he’s fine. It’s another level of concern for him, regardless. 

Daniel Jones: What a debut for Jones, who picked up right where he left off in the preseason. While many will say it was the Bucs, they were a defense who’d been playing very well under Todd Bowles, so don’t discount Jones’ starting debut. Losing Saquon Barkley hurts, though. The good news is that Jones gets the Redskins defense this week, a team that’s struggled to generate much of a pass-rush. Because of that, they’ve allowed quarterbacks 24.0 points per game (fifth-most) and wide receivers 54.7 PPR points per game (most in the NFL). They’re also allowing a league-high 79.0 percent completions rate, which includes a 25-for-31 performance by Mitch Trubisky on Monday night, who came into the game completing just 58.3 percent of his passes (ranked 29th among quarterbacks). They’ve also allowed three passing touchdowns in every game, despite facing just 33.3 pass attempts per game, which ranks as the 11th-fewest. The Giants defense is going to allow points because that’s just what they do, and knowing Barkley is out, Jones will be the primary source of how they move the ball. He should be considered a high-end QB2 for this game and someone who should provide a solid floor for streamers.

RBs
Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson: If there’s one thing that can spoil Keenum as a streamer, it’s the fact that the Giants are struggling in all facets, including stopping the run. There are just four teams in the NFL who are worse than average against every fantasy position, and they are the Dolphins, Giants, Steelers, and Raiders. The Giants have allowed a ridiculous 117.6 fantasy points per game to the combination of quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, which ranks second to only the Dolphins 125.0 points per game. It appears they’ll also be without starting linebacker Alec Ogletree for this game (didn’t practice all week), which surely won’t help. Through three games, they’ve faced 26, 26, and 27 carries by opposing running backs. That’s the type of volume Peterson owners are looking for. Despite playing against 36-year-old Frank Gore and the combination of Ronald Jones/Peyton Barber the last two weeks, the Giants have allowed 254 yards on 53 carries (4.79 yards per carry) along with two rushing scores. If there were a week to start Peterson, this is it. He should be considered a low-end RB2 who can always be gamescripted-out, though this shouldn’t be one of those games. This isn’t a week where we should see a whole lot of Thompson, as the game should be much closer than weeks past. Ronald Jones caught a 41-yard pass against the Giants last week, but no running back has caught more than three balls in the first three weeks. He’s more of an RB4 this week who you’re hoping for a big play to carry you though, as the volume just won’t be there.

Wayne Gallman: It appears that Gallman will be the starter in Week 3, unless there’s a last-minute signing that we didn’t know about. Coming out of Clemson, Gallman was touted as a three-down back, though he doesn’t have the explosion that most feature backs do. He’s shown that three-down ability through his time as a starter in 2017 and again as a backup to Barkley last year, catching 51 passes for 306 yards and a touchdown during his time in the NFL. The Giants offensive line likely won’t do him a whole lot of favors, but against the Redskins, there should be enough volume for him to give you startable fantasy numbers. They’ve faced an average of 25.0 carries per game and have allowed 5.0 receptions per game to running backs. That type of volume is huge to someone who’s “battling” with Elijaa Penny for touches. The biggest weakness of the Redskins defense is their secondary, but when you’re getting 15-plus touches against a team that’s allowed 4.54 yards per carry over their last 19 games is nothing to scoff at. Gallman should be considered a high-end RB3 this week, though you may want to sell-high after this game knowing he’ll play the Vikings and Patriots the following two weeks.

WRs
Terry McLaurin: It’s official, we should all be following my buddy John Proctor’s advice and make the nickname “F1” stick for McLaurin instead of the boring “Scary Terry” he’s been given. He’s now seen 24 targets on 124 pass attempts from Keenum, good enough for a 19.4 percent target share. His 47.1 percent of team air yards ranks third at the wide receiver position, a great indicator of future success. He just posted top-24 numbers against both the Cowboys and Bears defenses, two teams that combined to allow just 20 receivers to hit 14.9 PPR points against them last year (the average top-24 finish). He’s the real deal. Now onto his best matchup yet, as the Giants have already allowed seven different wide receivers post at least 12.0 PPR points against them, which included three 100-yard performances (Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Mike Evans). Their top two cornerbacks who cover the perimeter are Janoris Jenkins and DeAndre Baker, who have combined to allow 30-of-43 passing for 578 yards and five touchdowns this year. Start “F1” as a WR2 in this matchup. *Update* McLaurin suffered a hamstring injury and has been downgraded to questionable. At this point, it appears likely he’ll miss the game, though they’re calling him a game-time decision. If he suits up, he becomes a risk/reward WR3. 

Paul Richardson: He’s now caught touchdowns in back-to-back weeks and will be going against a Giants defense that’s allowed six wide receiver touchdowns, which is the third-most in the league. It’s not just touchdowns, either, as Richardson has seen seven and nine targets in two of their games, with the low point being three targets against the Cowboys, which was a tough matchup. Going back to his start with the Redskins last year, Richardson has seen at least five targets in 8-of-10 games, which is likely enough against the Giants, who have allowed 2.52 PPR points per target to the receiver position, which ranks as second-most behind only the Dolphins. While Janoris Jenkins used to be a good cornerback, he’s been horrendous since injuring his ankle a while back, and even if he did shadow anyone, it’d be McLaurin, meaning Richardson would have the best-case scenario against rookie DeAndre Baker. Richardson, who I’d consider a WR4 this week, might be one of the better sleepers on this slate with all the attention McLaurin will get.

Trey Quinn: With 20 targets through three weeks, Quinn is on the radar, though the last two weeks haven’t been very efficient, as 14 targets have netted just 66 scoreless yards. The Giants have Grant Haley covering the slot, an undrafted free agent from last year, who has allowed a ridiculously-high 76.9 percent catch-rate in his coverage, along with four touchdowns on just 39 targets. While that includes part of last season, it’s clear he’s not someone to avoid, though neither are the perimeter cornerbacks that Richardson and McLaurin will be playing against. It’s why we’ve only see Haley targeted six times this year. The truth is that you can pick your delight against the Giants secondary, though I don’t think they’ll generate enough pressure to force Keenum to check down to Quinn very often. He’s on the radar due to the great matchup, but he can’t be trusted as anything more than a WR5 in PPR formats.

Sterling Shepard: In his first game with Daniel Jones, Shepard reminded fantasy owners that he should be starting on your teams after piling up seven catches for 100 yards and a touchdown. Even better? He gets the Redskins this week, who have allowed more points to wide receivers than any other team in the league through three weeks. Even better is that Shepard has been playing in the slot 70 percent of the time, which means he’ll evade Josh Norman‘s coverage. While Norman is a shell of his former self, he’s still their top cornerback. Instead, Shepard will see the Redskins seventh-round rookie Jimmy Moreland in the slot. On 12 targets in coverage in the slot, he’s allowed 11 catches for 134 yards and a touchdown. In fact, the Redskins as a team in the slot have combined to allow: 20-of-25 passing for 205 yards and four touchdowns. Shepard’s 6.5 slot targets per game ranks seventh at the wide receiver position. Get him into lineups as a low-end WR2.

Cody Latimer: After suffering a concussion in Week 2, Latimer was forced to miss Week 3. He should be good to go for this game as the No. 2 receiver for Daniel Jones. The two connected in the preseason pretty well, so it’s definitely something to watch going forward. Truth be told, Latimer has been great on his targets with the Giants, catching 17-of-29 targets for 294 yards and a touchdown since the start of last year. Could he be a sleeper this week? Well, yes. The Redskins aren’t going to have Josh Norman shadow him, which means he’ll see either Fabian Moreau or Quinton Dunbar, who has missed the last two weeks with a knee injury. Neither of them are cornerbacks to shy away from. In fact, they’re ones to target. Moreau has allowed a 111.9 QB Rating in his coverage over his three years in the league, while Dunbar’s number over the last two years sits at a 111.1 QB Rating. Latimer is nothing more than a hail-mary, but knowing the Redskins allow more points to wide receivers than any other team in the league is promising, as is the fact that they’ll be throwing the ball a bit more with Daniel Jones under center and Saquon Barkley sidelined.

TEs
Vernon Davis: We must assume Jordan Reed is out until he’s not, right? It’s not that Davis has been overly impressive, though he has had some brutal matchups through the first three weeks. The Giants are not what you’d describe as a great matchup, but also not a bad one. They’ve allowed just seven top-12 performances to tight ends since the start of the 2018 season, with just four performances of more than 12.9 PPR points. In those games, the tight ends saw at least eight targets, something Davis hasn’t seen since Week 10 of the 2017 season. He’s not a preferred streaming option, even though it may not be the worst matchup.

Evan Engram: I think Engram looked better than he ever has last week, and it showed up on the stat sheet when he hauled in six passes for 113 yards and a touchdown from Daniel Jones in his first start. Now, to be fair, the matchup was about as good as it gets, but this week’s matchup is close to as good. The Redskins have only faced 20 attempts to the tight end position but allowed 17 of them to be caught for a very-high 85.0 percent completion-rate, the second highest mark in football. They have Landon Collins handling most of the coverage, which has netted 0.63 yards per snap in coverage, ranking 25th of the 80 safeties who qualify. Knowing he’s allowed an 80 percent catch-rate in his coverage over the last two years is the big plus here, as we know Engram will get targeted with the limited options among pass-catchers for the Giants. Start him with confidence as a TE1.