Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos

Total: 39.0
Line: DEN by 3.0

QBs
Gardner Minshew: It’s time to re-evaluate things with Minshew, who’s now been competent in three straight games and appears to be the real deal. He now has more fantasy points than Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, and Aaron Rodgers. He’ll now head out to Denver to play a Broncos defense that’s still yet to record a sack under Vic Fangio. How is this possible when Bradley Chubb and Von Miller combined for 26.5 sacks in 2018? They also have no turnovers, which makes them the first team in over 50 years to go three straight games without tallying at least one sack or turnover. The matchups on the edge with Miller versus rookie Jawaan Taylor, and Chubb versus Cam Robinson could bring a lot of heat onto Minshew. Even though they haven’t gotten to the quarterbacks they’ve played, they did generate pressure on 44.8 percent of Aaron Rodgers‘ dropbacks last week, which is a huge step in the right direction after averaging just 18.5 percent pressure in the first two weeks. And despite the lack of pressure, they’ve still allowed just the fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. The 55 completions they’ve allowed are the second-fewest in the league, while the two touchdowns they’ve allowed ranks as the fourth-fewest. Oddsmakers don’t feel good about Minshew or the Jaguars offense, either, as they’re projected for just 18.0 points. Minshew isn’t a preferred streaming option and might not even crack the top-20 quarterbacks in this matchup.

Joe Flacco: You weren’t expecting miracles if you drafted Flacco in a 2QB league, though you were hoping for more than two touchdowns through three weeks, especially knowing that Emmanuel Sanders is 100 percent healthy. He’s completing 69.1 percent of his passes but that’s because his average depth of target is 5.7 yards, the fourth-lowest mark in the league behind only Teddy Bridgewater, Jacoby Brissett, and Sam Darnold. He’ll now go up against a Jaguars defense that has allowed a miniscule 2.91 percent touchdown-rate despite playing Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson in two of their first three games. They will bring the pressure, though that’s where Flacco has performed well, as his 84.9 QB Rating under pressure is in the top half of the league. Still, when Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye are out there taking away Sanders and Courtland Sutton, what’s he going to do? Check-down or get sacked, and neither of them amount to fantasy points. You aren’t playing Flacco here.

RBs
Leonard Fournette: It’s time to admit defeat on Fournette, as I was a big-time supporter of his coming out of LSU, but he’s gotten to a point where it’s difficult to watch. He’s moving around behind the line of scrimmage like someone who has the burst of Saquon Barkley, but in reality, he looks to have less speed out of the hole than 34-year-old Adrian Peterson. He’s essentially Derrick Henry behind a worse offensive line, as he’s someone who can break a long run once he gets past the first line of defense, though that’s been a rare occasion for him, as he has just five 15-plus yard runs on his last 176 carries. The good news? He’s getting 100 percent of the touches in this backfield, which carries tremendous value in fantasy. Despite not scoring at all, he’s still the RB17 in PPR formats because of this. The Broncos have yet to allow a team of running backs total more than 96 yards against them, though they have allowed five rushing touchdowns, which is the most in the NFL. They’ve allowed that while playing Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, and Aaron Jones, so it’s not like Ezekiel Elliott or Christian McCaffrey tagged them for three touchdowns. Even if they fall behind in this game, it wouldn’t be by much, so there’s no risk of Fournette being gamescripted out. The Broncos have faced an average of 26.7 running back touches per game, so even if Fournette sees 90 percent of them, he’s in-line for 20 touches, making him a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 this week.

Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman: The timeshare continues in Denver, though many will assume Lindsay is the more valuable piece after he scored twice in Week 3. Here’s a chart highlighting the timeshare clearly:

This is not a timeshare that’ll go away very easily, as they’re using players practically evenly. It could’ve easily been Freeman who scored those touchdowns last week (he actually did score one, but it was called back). The Jaguars have been a bit hot-and-cold against the run this year, holding Damien Williams to 26 yards on 13 carries, but then allowing 81 yards on 10 carries to LeSean McCoy. They then allowed Carlos Hyde to run for 90 yards on 20 carries but held Derrick Henry to 44 yards on 17 carries. As you can see, there’s not much correlation going on here, though it’s clearly not a matchup that you must avoid with running backs. That’s the way it was last year with them, as everything was slightly below average for running backs, so when you divide the backfield into what is essentially a 50/50 timeshare, it becomes even more difficult to produce anything more than RB3 numbers. Lindsay is still the slightly preferred option, but they’re both going to be considered similar options most weeks.

WRs
D.J. Chark: He’s the clear-cut No. 1 option for Minshew, which has translated to the WR8 through three weeks of play. The issue, however, is that might lead to Chris Harris Jr. shadowing him in coverage this week, as he’s done with Allen Robinson (4/41/0) and Davante Adams (4/56/0) the last two weeks. Knowing Minshew should be under pressure in this game, it may be difficult to get the ball downfield to Chark, and he’s unlikely to continually beat Harris’ coverage. The hope for Chark owners is that they don’t shadow him, though that may be wishful thinking. Due to the risk of a potential shadow from Harris, Chark should be knocked down into the low-end WR3/high-end WR4 range.

Dede Westbrook: So, if Chark is shadowed by Chris Harris Jr, that means Westbrook will have a big game, right? Not exactly. The Broncos snagged Kareem Jackson from the Texans to play a safety/nickel cornerback role that he’s been good in. He did allow a 40-yard touchdown in his coverage last week, though that’s been the lone touchdown on his record since the start of 2018 which is a span of 101 targets. Westbrook does lead the team with 20 targets and his matchup is slightly better than Chark’s, which makes him a semi-decent-floor WR4-type option, though his drops (3) have started to add up. *Update* It appears that Jackson may miss this game with a hamstring injury, upgrading Westbrook’s matchup a bit more. 

Chris Conley/Marqise Lee: We saw Lee return to the lineup in Week 3 and total 15 snaps, while Conley played 38 snaps. We could see Lee continue to eat into the snaps moving forward, as we can’t forget he’s a former second-rounder who’s produced when healthy. If Chris Harris Jr. shadows Chark, these are the two who’d benefit most. That would leave Conley and Lee to match-up with De’Vante Bausby, who has taken over as the starting RCB for Isaac Yiadom, who’d been torched in coverage. Bausby is a former undrafted free agent who’s been in the league since 2015 but has only seen 37 targets in his coverage. On those targets, he’s allowed a massive 78.4 percent catch-rate for 379 yards and three touchdowns. One of these two has to benefit from the matchup and you’d have to guess Conley, though Lee wouldn’t be shocking. They’re both nothing more than hail-mary options, but the matchup is great.

Emmanuel Sanders: His hot start came to a screeching halt last week when he ran into Jaire Alexander, one of the up-and-coming cornerbacks in the league. He’s likely going to see Jalen Ramsey this week, so it’s not getting any better. It was odd to see him targeted just four times versus the Packers, a trend I don’t see continuing. Sammy Watkins and Adam Humphries have been the only two wide receivers to post more than 44 yards against the Jaguars this year, and both of them are in the slot more than half the time, an area Sanders has been just 28 percent of the time under the new regime. Still, he’s been targeted on 31 percent of his routes in the slot, which is the sliver of hope. Consider him a low-upside WR4 in this game, but not one who’s completely off the radar. *Update* It appears that Ramsey will not be playing in this game, which would shuffle things up a bit for the Jaguars defense. Most would assume that A.J. Bouye would come over and shadow Sanders, but that would leave last year’s undrafted free agent Tre Herndon with Sutton. The loss of Ramsey certainly upgrades Sanders’ matchup, though if Bouye were to shadow him, it’s still a tough task. He’s in the low-end WR3 conversation, though. 

Courtland Sutton: We talked about the fact that he’d have a better matchup against the Packers, and he took advantage while hauling in five passes for 87 yards on a team-high eight targets. That’s not happening this week. Sutton plays 88 percent of his routes on the perimeter, which means he’s going to see Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye nearly every snap, a recipe for disaster. They have allowed just four touchdowns in their coverage since the start of 2018, and while two of them were to Sammy Watkins in Week 1, Ramsey has been his usual self in the next two matchups, holding Deandre Hopkins to 5/40/0 and Corey Davis to 3/44/0. Sutton is not someone who should be in your lineups this week. *Update* It appears that Ramsey will not be playing in this game, which would shuffle things up a bit for the Jaguars defense. Most would assume that A.J. Bouye would come over and shadow Sanders, but that would leave last year’s undrafted free agent Tre Herndon with Sutton. Whatever the case, this is a win/win for Sutton, who will either see Bouye a portion of the time, or none of the time. He should be moved into the WR4 conversation. 

DaeSean Hamilton: He’s the primary slot receiver for the Broncos, which should have value against the Jaguars this week, though it’s not easy to trust someone who’s caught just four balls for 20 yards over the first three games. The Jaguars have D.J. Hayden in the slot, who’s allowed five catches for 59 yards on nine targets there, so it’s the best matchup of the bunch, and why you shouldn’t be writing off Sanders (he plays in the slot near 30 percent of the time). We saw Adam Humphries come to life last week with 6/93/0 after he totaled just 3/4/0 in the first two games. You don’t want to trust Hamilton in lineups, but he might play the most valuable role in the pass-game this week.

TEs
James O’Shaughnessy: This is still a timeshare with O’Shaughnessy and Geoff Swaim, though the former still leads the team in routes, 69-42. The targets have also sided with O’Shaughnessy, though a 12-10 edge screams neither are to be trusted, outside of maybe a matchup with the Cardinals. The Broncos did allow Darren Waller seven catches for 70 yards, but that seems to be the norm for him. The 1.38 PPR points per target they’re allowing to tight ends ranks as the eighth-best mark in football, so it’s not a matchup that you need to attack. No, thank you.

Noah Fant: Most expected Jeff Heuerman to be the primary tight end to start the season, but the Broncos have had Fant out there running more than twice the routes of him (85-40). Given Flacco’s short average depth of target, the duo has been targeted 18 times through three games, though the edge isn’t as clear to Fant in that department (11-7). That’s a problem because either can score the touchdown you’re usually looking for with a streaming tight end. The Jaguars haven’t allowed a tight end to score a touchdown yet and they did play both Travis Kelce and Delanie Walker. There were nine tight ends who finished as top-15 options against the Jaguars last year, and seven of them scored a touchdown, while the other two combined for 24 targets. There’s no need to play Fant here.

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints

Total: 47.0
Line: DAL by 2.5

QBs
Dak Prescott: After three weeks, he’s the No. 3 fantasy quarterback, but the difference between him and the No. 1 quarterback (Patrick Mahomes) is just 3.2 fantasy points. To be fair, he’s played against the Giants, Redskins, and Dolphins, the three teams who might just be the worst pass defenses in the league. The Saints haven’t been much better, allowing the most fantasy points (30.4/game) to opposing quarterbacks, though four rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks will prop-up those numbers. They’re still underwhelming against the pass, as they’ve allowed a 65.7 percent completion-rate, 8.86 yards per attempt, and a 5.6 percent touchdown-rate, all below average marks. Their top cornerback (Marshon Lattimore) has also been struggling a bit in coverage, which makes everyone else look worse. In a much more vanilla offense, Prescott completed 24-of-28 passes for 248 yards and a touchdown against the Saints in Week 13 last year. The Saints did pressure the quarterback at least 50 percent in each of the first two games, but saw that number dip to 31.5 percent last week, while Prescott has been pressured just 21.2 percent of the time, the second-lowest mark in the league. You have to keep plugging him in as a high-end QB1 until he gives you a reason not to. Knowing he can use his legs to take advantage of the Saints weakness to mobile quarterbacks is a positive, too.

Teddy Bridgewater: He was better when they gameplanned around his strengths and weaknesses, working on the shorter throws to build his confidence, while allowing guys like Kamara to create after the catch. His average depth of throw in Week 3 was just 3.3 yards, the lowest mark of the season for any quarterback. The Cowboys have faced more pass attempts (126) than any other team in football but have allowed just three touchdowns on them. It’s important to note they’ve played against Eli Manning, Case Keenum, and Josh Rosen, so the competition should’ve allowed them to post elite numbers. It’s not to say Bridgewater is better, though. There were 11 quarterbacks who were able to post at least 15 fantasy points against the Cowboys last year, though just one of them scored more than 21 fantasy points, so it was continually a mediocre matchup for quarterbacks and not one with much upside. It’d be much better if Bridgewater were still mobile, as the Cowboys did allow six quarterbacks to rush for at least 20 yards last year. He’s not someone you should aim to play outside of a desperation QB2 in 2QB formats.

RBs
Ezekiel Elliott: Sure, Elliott ran for 125 yards on 19 carries against the Dolphins last week, but it was a pretty underwhelming performance. There were holes the size of Texas for him to run through, as the Dolphins had no chance against that Cowboys offensive line. Rookie Tony Pollard looked better than him in Week 3. That’s not something you want to say when Elliott has totaled 60 touches on the season while Pollard has totaled 34 of them, as it’s a bigger timeshare than Elliott’s ever had. The Saints really struggled in Week 1 while being without both David Onyemata and Sheldon Rankins, though they got Onyemata back in Week 2, and they’ve played much better, allowing the combination of Rams and Seahawks running backs to just 158 yards on 41 carries (3.85 yards per carry). Rankins did return to practice, so they may get one of their key defensive linemen back, though he’s no lock to get clearance to play this week. The Saints were able to keep Elliott in check last year when he was held to 76 yards on 23 carries, though he did a lot of damage through the air, as he hauled in six passes for 60 yards and a touchdown. The lack of involvement in the passing game this year has capped his ceiling, as has the timeshare with Pollard. You’re starting Elliott as you normally would in redraft leagues, but if he’s not getting work in the passing game, he’s not a cash-game option in DFS. His matchup also gets a slight downgrade if Rankins is active. Pollard remains a high-end handcuff who’d be a league winner if Elliott were to miss time, but he’s not a recommended option this week.

Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray: We knew the offense would have fewer scoring opportunities without Drew Brees, ultimately hurting Murray’s potential in this offense, and we saw that in Week 3. He ran the ball just twice and totaled two yards. Is he droppable? Yeah, knowing Brees is out for another 5-7 weeks. As for Kamara, he looked like the same guy who has been creating yards after the catch, so when you combine his skillset with Bridgewater’s embarrassingly low 3.3 air yards per target equals a lot of targets and receptions. The Cowboys have looked good the last two weeks, but they’ve also played the Dolphins and Redskins running backs, who’ve struggled the entire season. Meanwhile, they’ve allowed 35.1 PPR points through the air alone to running backs, which ranks as the 10th-most in the league. It’s not a fluke, either, as they allowed the ninth-most receiving points to running backs last year. The 101 receptions they allowed was the fifth-most in the league, and that’s where Kamara will earn most of his fantasy points this week. The Cowboys have been without defensive tackle Antwaun Woods, which should also help, provided he remains sidelined. Kamara needs to be in lineups as an RB1 and he might be a safe play in DFS considering Bridgewater’s check-down mentality.

WRs
Amari Cooper: He’s been matchup-proof over the first three weeks, as he’s torched both Josh Norman and Xavien Howard over the last two weeks. While Marshon Lattimore is still a good football player, he’s now allowed 20-of-27 passing for 341 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage. Sure, he’s played against Deandre Hopkins, Brandin Cooks, and Tyler Lockett/D.K. Metcalf, but Cooper is right up there with the best of them in terms of talent. He’s still yet to see more than nine targets and his 21 targets rank 33rd among wide receivers, but his efficiency has carried him to the No. 4 wide receiver in fantasy. There have now been 20 wide receivers who’ve scored at least 15 PPR points against the Saints in their last 19 games, and Cooper is the logical one on this Cowboys squad. Lattimore is good enough to worry me about playing Cooper in cash with his 12 targets over the last two weeks, but he’s plugged-in as a WR1 in redraft formats. *Update* Cooper has been limited in practice this week due to an ankle injury, though they’re saying it’s nothing too serious.

Randall Cobb: His game last week wasn’t what we’d hoped, though you’d feel much different if his 74-yard touchdown wasn’t called back due to a holding penalty. He’s playing the same role without Michael Gallup in the lineup, so that doesn’t amount to much, though you can say that Devin Smith won’t get targeted as much as Gallup did, which should ultimately lead to more targets for others, like Cobb. The Saints have P.J. Williams covering the slot, which is a gift for Cobb, as Williams has allowed 10/108/1 on 15 targets in coverage. While Cooper battles with Marshon Lattimore, it’d make sense for Cobb to get targeted a bit more. We felt a similar way last week with Xavien Howard on Cooper, but Howard simply didn’t show up to play in that game. Cobb is on the WR4 radar this week and makes for a good play in DFS tournaments, as everyone remains peeved about last week’s performance, or lack thereof.

Devin Smith: With Michael Gallup out of the lineup, Smith has now seen eight targets over the last two weeks, turning them into five catches for 113 yards and a touchdown. They were both plus matchups, and while this week is another one, it’s not as great as the previous ones. With Amari Cooper shadowed by Marshon Lattimore, Smith will see Eli Apple in coverage. After allowing a 54-yard catch to Will Fuller to start the season, he’s got things together, allowing just 3-of-7 passing for 60 yards in his coverage. Teams are wisely attacking the slot against the Saints, which is why Cobb makes sense this week. Apple is far from a shutdown cornerback, but he should be considered an average player who’s flashed at times. Smith is just a WR5/6-type option in this matchup.

Michael Thomas: Remember when I said Thomas’ floor should remain intact with Bridgewater as the starter? He’s now seen 18 of Bridgewater’s 57 pass attempts this year, good for a 31.6 percent target share. The Cowboys don’t have a shadow cornerback and play a ton of zone defense, which is very similar to the Seahawks they played last week. While the Seahawks played the third-most zone last year, the Cowboys played the fourth-most. Thomas is a smart receiver who knows where to sit in a zone and Bridgewater obviously glues his eyes to either Thomas or Kamara, as they’ve combined for 54.4 percent of his targets. The Cowboys have done a good job of keeping the play in front of them since the start of the 2018 season, as they’ve allowed just four wide receivers to post top-15 performances against them. Three of those players were Deandre Hopkins, Julio Jones, and Mike Evans, so it’s clearly No. 1 options who have a shot at success. Thomas should be in lineups as a low-end WR1, though he’s not one to attack in DFS.

Ted Ginn: Sure, he saw five targets last week, but knowing Bridgewater isn’t taking shots down the field is going to hurt quite a bit, especially against a Cowboys team that’s kept the play in front of them, which is evidenced through their 11.03 yards per reception that ranks as the seventh-lowest mark in the league. Ginn shouldn’t be considered with Bridgewater under center, especially when it’s a matchup like this one.

TEs
Jason Witten: You can’t argue with his efficiency over the first three games, as he’s turned 12 targets into 10/94/2, which is good enough to be the TE11 in PPR leagues. The Saints are coming off a game in which they allowed Will Dissly 6/62/1 on just seven targets, which was shocking considering they’d allowed just three tight ends to score more than 8.1 PPR points last year. Was it a blip on the radar or is there more to this? Considering they’ve allowed just 6.84 yards per target even with that performance, we have to take it as a one-off situation, though it’s something to monitor. Tight ends caught just 58.1 percent of their targets against this defense last year and averaged just 6.66 yards per target, making Witten a non-attractive streamer this week.

Jared Cook: It’s been a nightmarish start to Cook’s Saints tenure, as he’s currently the TE30 in fantasy leagues. He saw just two targets last week in Bridgewater’s first start and has now seen declining yardage in every game. The Cowboys have been a team to target with tight ends over the last two years, as they’ve allowed a high 73.5 percent catch-rate to them since the start of 2018, including 7.55 yards per target. Of the 16 tight ends to play them last year, eight finished as top-15 options, which is kind of how you should feel about Cook, as he’s someone who gives you a 50/50 shot at top-15 numbers. If the Saints are game-planning to the Cowboys’ weaknesses, Cook should be more involved this week. He’s nothing more than a high-end TE2, but he’s at least worth consideration.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

Total: 43.5
Line: PIT by 4.0

QBs
Andy Dalton: The addition of Minkah Fitzpatrick was a good one for the Steelers defense, as they looked much improved against the 49ers, forcing five turnovers while pressuring Jimmy Garoppolo 30 percent of the time. Despite missing multiple starters on the offensive line, Dalton hasn’t been under constant pressure while having plays called by Zac Taylor. It’s a new offense, so it’s hard to say what to expect, but Dalton has thrown two touchdowns in each of the last three games against the Steelers. Through the first three weeks, the Steelers have allowed at least 277 yards to each quarterback despite none of them totaling more than 36 attempts. They’ve also allowed a rather-high 6.8 percent touchdown-rate, but that’ll happen when you play against Tom Brady and Russell Wilson in 67 percent of your games. All in all, the Steelers have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points (108.6) as a team to opposing quarterbacks, wide receivers, running backs, and tight ends, which is oddly more than the Bengals have allowed (96.9) as a team. Going on the road to play a desperate Steelers team who needs a win and will likely want to kill the clock by running the ball, we have to knock him down a tad, but Dalton should be considered a middling QB2, at worst.

Mason Rudolph: The first game of the Rudolph era wasn’t kind, as he completed just two passes that went beyond the line of scrimmage. Fortunately, both were for touchdowns, but he’s going to have to play better moving forward. Against the Bengals, that’s entirely possible. None of the three quarterbacks they’ve played to this point have scored less than 16.3 fantasy points, which is typically middling QB2 numbers. Even Jimmy Garoppolo and his rather weak trio of wide receivers were able to post 297 yards and three touchdowns on just 25 attempts. Knowing the plus-matchup he has with Smith-Schuster in the slot this week, Rudolph should be set up with plenty of run-after-the-catch opportunities. There’s a reason there’s only been 54 completions against the Bengals (lowest mark in the league), and it’s because they can’t stop the run. Look for the Steelers to ride Conner in this game and mask Rudolph’s slow start, though he should look better in this matchup. He’s just an emergency starter in 2QB leagues until we see him put a full game together.

RBs
Joe Mixon: The matchup of these two teams is eerily similar, as they’ve both allowed 19-20 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, 10-12 points to tight ends, and 31-34 points to running backs. They’re two of the bottom four run defenses in the league through three games. Mixon’s offensive line is crumbling before him, as both Cordy Glenn and Michael Jordan are going to be questionable for this game. Mixon is averaging just 2.8 yards per carry on the ground, though it was good to see him used in the passing game last week, catching two passes for 34 yards and a touchdown against the Bills. Through three weeks, the Steelers have still yet to allow a running back more than 79 yards on the ground, but they have allowed three rushing touchdowns in their last two games. That was kind of the story against the Bills, as we knew Mixon would need a touchdown. The area the Bengals need to attack is through the air, though. The Steelers have been tagged by running backs for 43.1 PPR points through the air alone, which ranks as the second-highest mark in football. Because of that, they’ve allowed at least 28.8 PPR points to opposing teams of running backs in each game. With Mixon leading what seems to be an 75/25 timeshare, he should be in lineups as a high-end RB2. The concern of gamescript can’t get too bad with Rudolph on the other side, right?

James Conner: It’s been a nightmarish start to the season for Conner, who has now averaged just 2.9 yards per carry and has scored one touchdown. Not exactly the production most thought they were getting when they drafted him at the end of the first/beginning of the second. The Mason Rudolph experiment didn’t go well the first week, but help is on the way for Conner in Week 4, as the Bengals come to town. Over the last two weeks, they’ve been obliterated to the tune of 350 rushing yards and three touchdowns to the combination of running backs on the 49ers and Bills, who were both without their starting running backs. They are missing tackles all over the place and don’t have the talent to make up for that. The 5.24 yards per carry they’re allowing ranks as the fourth worst in football, while their touchdown every 19.8 carries ranks as the fifth worst in football. Defensive tackle Ryan Glasgow was forced to miss last week and though he may be back, this defense isn’t good. The Steelers need a win and the best way to do that is hand the ball to Conner 20-plus times on Monday night. If he doesn’t perform as an RB1 in this matchup, you can sound the alarms, though I don’t see that being the case.

WRs
Tyler Boyd: Now averaging over 10 targets per game in the new offense, it’s safe to say Boyd is an every-week start. He’s still yet to find the end zone, but when you’re averaging 8.0 catches per game, those will come. The Steelers have struggled with slot-heavy receivers this year, allowing Julian Edelman 6/83/0 in Week 1, Tyler Lockett 10/79/0 in Week 2, and then Dante Pettis 4/20/1 in Week 3. The two defenders they have covering the slot the most are Mike Hilton and Terrell Edmunds, who have combined to allow 14 receptions, 205 yards, and two touchdowns on 16 targets in the slot. If there’s a clear-cut weakness to this Steelers defense that’s allowed 44.6 PPR points per game to wide receivers (seventh-most), it’s over the middle of the field. Boyd needs to be in lineups as a high-end WR2 who comes with a rock-solid floor.

John Ross: We talked about the fact that it was a bad matchup for Ross last week, but can he bounce back against a Steelers secondary that’s allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers? Speedster Phillip Dorsett torched them deep for 4/95/2 in Week 1, and then they allowed size/speed freak D.K. Metcalf 3/61/1 in Week 2. While those aren’t high reception marks, they are clearly struggling with the big plays. They’ve allowed 15 passing plays that have gone for 20-plus yards, which ranks as the fourth-most in the league. The addition of Minkah Fitzpatrick should help, though he’s only been with the team for a week and a half. Ross has yet to see less than six targets, which is good for his fantasy floor most weeks, too. Some will think Joe Haden shadows him, but that would be a mistake on the Steelers part, as Haden ran a 4.52-second 40-yard dash at his peak, and he’s now 30 years old. You don’t want to say Ross is a boom/bust player while seeing six-plus targets per game, even though that’s been imprinted in our memories the last few years. He should be considered a high-end WR4 against the Steelers.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: The finishing line for Smith-Schuster was good last week, but it required a 76-yard catch-and-run where he did most of the work after the catch. He’s now totaled at least 78 yards in every game, and while it may not have been pretty, he’s presenting a solid floor while the Steelers offense has been struggling. More good news? The Bengals may be without B.W. Webb, who suffered a forearm injury in Week 2, leaving Tony McRae and Darius Phillips to cover the slot. Phillips is a fifth-round pick from last year who allowed 21-of-27 passing for 191 yards and two touchdowns in his rookie season, while McRae is a former undrafted free agent who has seen just 18 targets in his four-year career that’s netted 14 catches for 156 yards and two touchdowns. Even if Webb returns for this game, he’s far from someone to avoid. Start Smith-Schuster as a low-end WR1 who needs Rudolph to play better, but in this matchup, it shouldn’t be that hard.

James Washington/Diontae Johnson: It’s going to be tough to recommend either of these as fantasy starters based on what we saw out of Rudolph last week. While Johnson got the glory with his 39-yard touchdown pass, it was set up by Washington drawing a pass interference penalty of 32 yards the prior play. Johnson did see more targets for a second straight week, however, so he’s likely the preferred option when it comes to floor. It’s still tough to pass on Rudolph’s deep connection with Washington, but it’s only amounted to seven targets over the last two games. They alternate sides, so they’ll each see a mix of William Jackson and Dre Kirkpatrick, the duo that’s struggled to start the year, allowing a combined 17-of-28 passing for 283 yards and three touchdowns. Washington has a 16.7-yard average depth of target (ranks seventh highest among receivers) while Johnson’s is just 10.7 yards, so if we’re picking one to land the big play, I’m still on Washington’s side. Neither should be trusted in season-long leagues until we see Rudolph complete more than two passes beyond the line of scrimmage.

TEs
Tyler Eifert: We saw the gap widen with Eifert last week, as he ran 23 routes compared to just eight of them for C.J. Uzomah. For those who didn’t know, Uzomah had run more routes than Eifert over the first two games (43-37). It didn’t amount to more targets in a bad matchup with the Bills, but it’s good to see some separation in the routes run. The Steelers have allowed Will Dissly 5/50/2 on five targets and George Kittle 6/57/0 on eight targets over the last two weeks, so they’re clearly not a shutdown defense against the position, which extends to what they allowed to tight ends last year when they allowed 10 tight ends produce 10.0 or more PPR points. The 2.33 PPR points per target they’ve allowed this year ranks as the third-most, but honestly, it’s the least of their concerns. The addition of Minkah Fitzpatrick should surely help, but Eifert should be someone Dalton looks to a bit more in this matchup. He’s nothing more than a middling TE2, but on a showdown slate, he’s the tight end of choice.

Vance McDonald, Nick Vannett and Xavier Grimble: Who knows what the Steelers are going to do at tight end this game, as they traded a fifth-round pick for Vannett earlier this week, though he’s going to have just a few days to learn the playbook. McDonald reportedly “could still play” though you shouldn’t be relying on him. The Bengals are a defense you could/should attack with tight ends, as they allowed more PPR points per game (15.0) to the position than anyone else last year, but knowing that McDonald has a shoulder injury that’s required him to wear a sling, combined with no clear-cut No. 2 tight end among Vannett and Grimble, it’s not a time to guess, especially knowing this game is on Monday night.

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers

Total: 47.0
Line: GB by 4.5

QBs
Carson Wentz: The fact that they lost to the Lions at home should highlight just how much Wentz missed DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery last week. Knowing they’re playing on a short week, it’s very possible they hold out both players to give them another 10 days to heal up. The Packers pass-rush has been phenomenal through the first two weeks, as they’re tied for third in the league with 12 sacks. If there’s any offensive line built to withstand the pressure, it’s the Eagles, though Wentz has been sacked seven times through three games. With that being said, he’s dropped back to pass 129 times through three weeks, the fifth-most in football, so there’s going to be sacks regardless. The Packers defense has looked much better through three weeks, but we have to keep in mind they’ve played Mitch Trubisky, Kirk Cousins (who they pressured on 69 percent of his dropbacks), and Joe Flacco, which makes it a lot easier to understand they’ve allowed just one touchdown pass on 106 pass attempts. It does make sense they’d be better, though, as they’ve invested a lot of draft pick equity and free agent money on their defense. It seems they may be catching Wentz at the perfect time, as he comes into town shorthanded on a short week. Oddsmakers don’t view this game as one that’ll net a ton of points, and Thursday night games have disappointed, so Wentz shouldn’t be considered a must-start this week but rather a low-endQB1/high-end QB2 who may have lower upside than some of the streaming options.

Aaron Rodgers: Through three games under Matt LaFleur, Rodgers’ upside doesn’t appear to be as high as we’ve seen in previous offenses. He’s averaging just a 61.3 percent completion-rate and 7.0 yards per attempt (both 2nd lowest marks of his career) while scoring fewer fantasy points than Gardner Minshew, Case Keenum, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Jameis Winston. The Eagles secondary will do everything in their power to improve those numbers. They just lost Ronald Darby to a hamstring injury, which means they’ll turn back to the trio of Rasul Douglas, Sidney Jones, and Avonte Maddox at cornerback. That was the trio for much of the 2018 season and it was amazingly up-and-down. They allowed eight top-12 quarterbacks, but held every other quarterback to the QB20 or worse, no in-between. The important thing I found, was that four of the five biggest performances they allowed were on the road. It just so happens that Rodgers plays better at home and won’t have his top wide receiver shadowed this week. Against a team that’s allowed seven passing touchdowns through the first three weeks, Rodgers should live up to his QB1 status on Thursday night.

RBs
Miles Sanders, Jordan Howard, and Darren Sproles: Some will view Sanders’ performance in Week 3 as somewhat of a breakout, but it’s more of a game to worry than one to celebrate. He fumbled twice, losing one of them. This is a big storyline because it was one of the knocks on him out of Penn State, and something Doug Pederson talked about when discussing Sanders this offseason, that he needed to protect the ball. As a result, the snap count was as even as it’s been all year with Sproles getting 27 snaps, Sanders 25, and Howard 24. We don’t know if this will be a long-term punishment, but it adds a level of uncertainty to Sanders as they walk into a plus-matchup with the Packers run defense that’s now allowed more PPR points to running backs than they have to quarterbacks and wide receivers combined. The 33.0 points per game they’re allowing rank as the third-most in football, behind only the Dolphins and Bengals. Oddly enough, their best game against the run came while they were on the road, as they’ve been at home the last two weeks and allowed a massive 325 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. The question is: can the Eagles keep the gamescript on their side in this one in order to run the ball as much as they should? Knowing that there’s gamescript risk, along with potential punishment for fumbling, Sanders can’t be played as anything more than a RB3 this week, especially if he’s losing goal-line carries to Howard. After Week 1, Sproles has touched the ball just four times, so he’s not factored in too much, though he is playing snaps. Howard could sneak in another touchdown this week, though he’s not getting enough work to justify anything more than a touchdown-hopeful RB4 play.

Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams: It appears Matt LaFleur’s statement was true, that he wants this to be closer to a 50/50 split backfield. Not only did Williams play more snaps (33-21) this week, but he also totaled more touches (14-11). The naysayers will tell me, “Bro, the Packers are 3-0. Jones averaged 1.9 yards per carry last week and Williams averaged 4.9. They don’t care about your fantasy team.” What I do know is that Williams does not score on the play Jones did in the third quarter, where he used his speed to bounce a run outside. The issue is that the Eagles are coming to town, a team that has completely erased opposing run games. They’ve held Kerryon Johnson to 36 yards on 20 carries, Devonta Freeman to 22 yards on 11 carries, and Derrius Guice to 18 yards on 10 carries. There are always touchdowns that are hard to predict, though it appears Jones will get all of those touches, as he has six red zone touches compared to zero for Williams. Because of that, Jones remains on the low-end RB2/high-end RB3 radar, but he’s far from a sure thing knowing this is a timeshare. With Williams being excluded in the run-game around the goal-line, and knowing he’s not the type to break a long run, he’s not startable.

WRs
Alshon Jeffery: It’s been announced that Jeffery will play this week and he’s actually been removed off the injury report. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he’ll have to face-off against Jaire Alexander, who has been phenomenal in shadow coverage this year. He’s seen 21 targets but has allowed just nine receptions for 106 yards on them. The only hope is that the Packers don’t view Jeffery as a must-shadow player, though that’s extremely unlikely with Mack Hollins as the other perimeter wide receiver. Most owners planned to be without Jeffery this week anyway, so hopefully they have another option who’s higher in the rankings. Jeffery is the type who can score a touchdown in tight coverage, as he has phenomenal ability to high-point a ball, as well as box out in the red zone. Because of that, he’s still in the WR3 conversation, though this is not a great matchup for him.

Nelson Agholor: The final stat line may look good, but Agholor didn’t have a great game against the Lions last week. The fumble he had was one of the more odd ones I’ve seen in some time, as there was no one in the same vicinity as him. The fact remains that he has now seen 23 targets over the last two weeks with DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery sidelined. The good news is that they left him in the slot despite their absences in Week 3, as that’s where he’s most effective. The Packers will have Jaire Alexander shadow opposing No. 1 receivers, but he doesn’t travel into the slot. That means Agholor will see a lot of Tramon Williams, who’s been in the league since 2006 and is now 36 years old. He’s done a competent job in coverage to this point, allowing 109 yards on 14 targets and no touchdown. It’s still not a great matchup, as the Packers have allowed just 23.0 PPR points per game to wide receivers, which ranks as the lowest mark in the NFL. Knowing the Eagles are still without Jackson, Agholor’s floor is better, but his ceiling doesn’t justify anything more than a WR4 start.

Mack Hollins: Stepping into a much bigger role without Alshon Jeffery in the lineup, Hollins has now seen 15 targets over the last two weeks. He’s caught nine of them for 112 yards, but more importantly, he dropped two passes, which could have made the difference in a close game. Hollins will likely see a Kevin King in coverage now that Jeffery is playing, which is a good thing. King is easily the best one to attack in the Packers secondary, as his career to this point has been littered with injuries and big plays in coverage. Over his three-year career, he’s allowed 15.7 yards per reception in his coverage, so he’s been beat over the top quite a bit. Will the Eagles keep faith in the young receiver, or will they start looking to their other options? Knowing those options are quite limited, Hollins is still on the radar, but not more than a WR5/6-type option against the Packers.

Davante Adams: If you can buy low on Adams right now, you probably should, as he’s about to have a big game on primetime television for all to see. After not having a single game with less than 16.0 PPR points last year, Adams has now scored less than 10.0 points in two of the first three games under Matt LaFleur. We knew last week was going to be a tough matchup with Chris Harris, while Rodgers was rusty against the Bears. I’ve lowered my ceiling projections for Adams moving forward, as this offense just doesn’t push the ball his way enough, but matchups have dictated some of those issues. He’ll match-up with a Ronald Darby-less Eagles secondary that has now allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, including a touchdown catch once every 12.2 targets. Adams will see the most of Sidney Jones, the Eagles second-round pick from 2017 who they’ve moved all over the field, trying to find a home for him after suffering multiple injuries. He was the one who allowed a touchdown to Marvin Jones last week and my bet would be that it happens again in Week 4. Adams should be in lineups as a WR1.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: With Chris Harris shadowing Davante Adams, Valdes-Scantling had a field-day against the Broncos secondary, seeing a team-high 10 targets and turning them into 6/99/1. He won’t have that luxury in Week 4, though the matchup with Rasul Douglas is far from worrisome. He ran a very subpar 4.59-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine just two years ago. If there’s anything we’ve noticed with Valdes-Scantling is that they’ll take a few shots deep with him each game. Through three weeks, he now has just as many targets as Adams (21). Being the No. 2 receiver for Rodgers has its benefits, though this is a game where Valdes-Scantling should take a backseat to the Adams show. Still, he’s worthy of high-end WR4 consideration knowing how well the Eagles defend the run.

Geronimo Allison: After Allison had a big performance against the Vikings, most wanted to anoint him as the No. 2 for Rodgers. That wasn’t true at all and the snap counts have told us this all along. Allison has now played just 87-of-186 snaps, or 46.8 percent. That’s what we call a part-time player. His matchup with the Eagles with be with Avonte Maddox, last year’s fourth-round pick who’s struggled quite a bit to open the 2019 season. He’s now allowed 15-of-19 passes to be completed for 164 yards and a touchdown in his coverage. Those he’s struggled against were shifty slot receivers Trey Quinn and Danny Amendola, while he held bigger Mohamed Sanu to just four catches for 16 yards in their matchup in Week 2. Allison is much more comparable to Sanu, and the other Packers wide receivers have much better matchups. He’s nothing more than a WR6 in this game.

TEs
Zach Ertz: We talked about Ertz’s inefficiency with Alshon Jeffery out of the lineup last week, but we didn’t see him getting just seven targets in a game they threw the ball 36 times. Not that a 19.4 percent target share is bad for a tight end, but it was a disappointing outcome. The Packers have not been a team to attack with tight ends, as they’ve allowed the third-fewest points to them on the young season. When you see they’ve played Adam Shaheen, Kyle Rudolph, and Noah Fant, that should answer some questions. Going back to last year, there were five tight ends who totaled 63 or more receiving yards against them, though it’s important to note Darnell Savage and Adrian Amos have been welcomed additions to the Packers secondary. They’ve combined to allow just 10 receptions for 69 yards in their coverage while intercepting two passes on the year. While this is clearly not a plus-matchup, Ertz’s should-be volume supersedes the matchup. He’s still a high-end TE1 play in this game.

Jimmy Graham: Since his 3/30/1 performance against the Bears in Week 1, Graham has fallen by the wayside in the Packers offense, as he’s seen just two targets over the last two weeks combined. Even worse, he played just 22-of-54 snaps in Week 3 while Marcedes Lewis played 30 of them. While Graham had the edge in routes run (12-10), it’s more of a timeshare than most realize. The Eagles have been among the top teams against tight ends ever since Doug Pederson took over. A stat I referenced last week was that they’ve now allowed just 10 touchdowns to tight ends in 51 games under Pederson. Knowing Graham is a touchdown-or-bust option at this point in his career, it’s easy to pass on him this week. In fact, he should probably be on waiver wires.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.