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Week 4 Fantasy Football Expert Accuracy Results

Sep 30, 2019

Chris Godwin was the fantasy football star of the week

The fantasy football season is blazing past us as a quarter of the fantasy season is already complete. We’ve had some surprises from Lamar Jackson and Will Dissly breaking out to Chris Godwin leaping into the top tier of fantasy receivers and Sony Michel essentially becoming an afterthought. At FantasyPros, we want to provide you the most information to help you make the best decisions for your fantasy team, and part of that is showing you which experts have been the most accurate with their rankings. Since we are a quarter into the season, it is time to take a look at the expert accuracy standings so we can see who has been nailing the tough calls like Sony’s disappointing season and Ingram’s early success. While we are here, let’s first see which experts had the best fantasy football rankings in Week 4. As always, you can check out the entire standings in our accuracy section.

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Week 4 Accuracy Results

Top 10 Experts – Overall Leaderboard*
 Rank  Expert
 1.  Staff Rankings – Daily Roto
 2.  Rudy Gamble – Razzball
 3.  Jamie Calandro
 4.  Scott Whitfield – Roto Rankings
 5.  Andy Vanda – Take Your League
 6.  Bart Wheeler – Hail to Fantasy Football
 7.  Brett Talley – Fantasy Alarm
 8.  Scott Spratt – Football Outsiders
 9.  Elisha Twerski – FantasyPros
 10  Zach Brunner – FantasyPros

*View Full Accuracy Scores (138 experts) | Combine Top Experts into Consensus Rankings

Staff Rankings (Daily Roto) had another huge week, this time placing 1st out of 142 entries. They accomplished it by ranking 8th among quarterback accuracy, 3rd for running backs and well within the top half for both wide receiver and tight end rankings. Perhaps their most impressive ranking this week was having Jacoby Brissett 10 full spots above the expert consensus. Daily Roto ranked him 5th and that is exactly where he ended up. They were also 9 spots higher than ECR on Mason Rudolph, ranking him QB #14 while accurately ranking Tom Brady (ECR #12) outside their top 20. At the running back position, Daily Roto was correctly much higher than consensus on Leonard Fournette, Wayne Gallman and Darrel Williams while recommending Miles Sanders (ECR #26) and Sony Michel (ECR #25) as sits. As if that wasn’t enough, their ranking of Jarvis Landry (WR #34) was 9 spots higher than ECR, Dionate Johnson (WR #38) was 18 spots higher than ECR and they wisely recommended O.J. Howard as a sit. Well done Daily Roto’s staff on another remarkable week!

Scott Whitfield (Roto Rankings) deserves special mention because not only did he place 10th among 142 experts this week, but he was in the top 10 last week as well. Likewise, Daily Roto’s staff rankings and Elisha Twerski  (FantasyPros) were in the top 10 in Week 2, while Brett Talley (Fantasy Alarm) also notched his second top 10 of the season after he finished 1st in Week 1. Congratulations to the entire top 10 and also this week’s top positional rankers:

Quarterbacks: Site Projections – numberFire
Running Backs: Rudy Gamble – Razzball
Wide Receivers: Alan Harrison – The Fantasy Fix
Tight Ends: Kyle Richardson – The Fantasy Headliners
Kickers: Dave Richard – CBS Sports
D/ST: Jamie Calandro
IDPMatt De Lima – FullTimeFantasy

Biggest Surprises

As always, we recognize the experts that did the best job of ranking the surprise performers from Week 4. Below are several key players that performed beyond expectations for fantasy owners along with the experts who delivered their top ranking.

Jameis Winston (TB)
Consensus: QB #18
Actual Rank: QB #1
Best Rank: QB #11
Top Experts: Raju Byfield (Win My Fantasy League)

Jordan Howard (PHI)
Consensus: RB #41
Actual Rank: RB #2
Best Rank: RB #18
Top Expert: Justin George (Take Your League)

Darrel Williams (KC)
Consensus: RB #31
Actual Rank: RB #11
Best Rank: RB #21
Top Expert: Davis Mattek (RotoExperts) & Muntradamus (Beast Dome)

Courtland Sutton (DEN)
Consensus: WR #44
Actual Rank: WR #6
Best Rank: WR #29
Top Expert: Brett Talley (Fantasy Alarm)

Corey Davis (TEN)
Consensus: WR #51
Actual Rank: WR #9
Best Rank: WR #28
Top Expert: Muntradamus (Beast Dome)
*next closest was WR39!

Jimmy Graham
Consensus: TE #18
Actual Rank: TE #4
Best Rank: TE #6
Top Expert: Justin George (Take Your League)

Biggest Disappointments

On the flip side, there is plenty of credit due to the experts who did the reverse. These experts warned many off of players who would have otherwise minimized their odds of winning their fantasy contests. Let’s take a look at some of the most disappointing fantasy players from Week 4 and the experts whose rankings were closest to their lackluster performance.

Dak Prescott (DAL)
Consensus: QB #5
Actual Rank: QB #24
Best Rank: QB #16
Top Expert: Ryan Hodge (Project Roto)

Mark Ingram
Consensus: RB #10
Actual Rank: RB #38
Best Rank: RB #23
Top Expert: Rudy Gamble (Razzball)

Phillip Lindsay
Consensus: RB #19
Actual Rank: RB #42
Best Rank: RB #34
Top Expert: Brad Ziegler (The Athletic)

Julian Edelman
Consensus: WR #20
Actual Rank: WR #56
Best Rank: WR #48
Top Expert: Scott Spratt (Football Outsiders)

Marquise Brown
Consensus: WR #17
Actual Rank: WR #61
Best Rank: WR #33
Top Experts: Brandon Funston (The Athletic)

Greg Olsen
Consensus: TE #6
Actual Rank: TE #46
Best Rank: TE #11
Top Expert: Kyle Richardson (The Fantasy Headliners)

Year-to-Date Accuracy

Top 10 Experts – Overall Leaderboard*
 Rank  Expert
 1.  Staff Rankings – Daily Roto
 2.  Jake Ciely – The Athletic
 3.  Pat Fitzmaurice – The Football Girl
 4.  Nathan Jahnke – Pro Football Focus
 5.  Joe Bond – Fantasy Six Pack
 6.  Scott Whitfield – Roto Rankings
 7.  Jeff Ratcliffe – Pro Football Focus
 8.  Tim Jablonski – The Hateful 8
 9.  Brett Talley – Fantasy Alarm
10  Eric Moody – FantasyData

*View Full Accuracy Scores (138 experts) | Combine Top Experts into Consensus Rankings

What a start by Daily Roto’s staff rankings who were amazingly #1 among all 138 entrees heading into Week 4 before they then proceeded to finish #1 for the week. As you can imagine, that lead is substantial at this point. They’ve accomplished it by placing 1st among 138 experts at running back accuracy, 5th at quarterback accuracy and in the top quartile at ranking wide receivers.

There is a familiar name to the leaderboard right behind Daily Roto, as Jake Ceily (The Athletic) is currently in second place. Jake has finished among the top 20 every season since 2013 including three consecutive top-five finishes within that stretch. Jake isn’t the only recurring expert at the top this season, though. Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl) has been in the top 20 four straight seasons including a #2 finish in 2017, and Jeff Ratcliffe (Pro Football Focus) had a run of four consecutive top 10 finishes including #2 in 2016. Like Daily Roto’s staff rankings, Ceily and Fitzmaurice are both in the top 5 in running back and wide receiver accuracy through the first four weeks. Congratulations to all of the top 10 and our current positional accuracy leaders:

Quarterbacks: Mike Randle – BettingPros
Running Backs: Staff Rankings – Daily Roto
Wide Receivers: Dylan Chappine – White Wolf Sports
Tight Ends: Dan McLellan – WBLZ Media
Kickers: Nick Mariano – RotoBaller
D/ST: Walter Cherepinsky – Walter Football
IDP: Ryan Sitzmann – The IDP Guru

BettingPros Year-to-Date Accuracy

We’ve been tracking the accuracy of betting recommendations on our new site, BettingPros this season as well. In this competition, we track units bet across game spreads, over/unders and moneylines then use those units to rank the most accurate experts. Let’s have a look at the top 10 through four weeks:

Top 10 Experts – Overall Leaderboard*
 Rank  Expert
 1.  Matt MacCoy – The Next Big Thing
 2.  Mike Spector – BettingPros
 3.  Case Keefer – Las Vegas Sun
 4.  Benjamin Hoffman – The NY Times
 5.  Phil Wood – BettingPros
 6.  Site Picks – numberFire
 7.  Jared Beams – The Extra Point
 8.  Gary Gramling – Sports Illustrated
 9.  Site Picks – Fox Sports
10  Vinnie Iyer – Sporting News

*View Full Accuracy Scores (156 experts)

Congrats to Matt MacCoy (The Next Big Thing) on a tremendous start! Through 122 bets, Matt is 20 games above 500. While he is doing great against the spread, he is really making his money on Over/Unders with a 38-21-2 record through 4 weeks. Matt was #1 out of 147 experts in Week 1, #3 in Week 3 and had a winning record in each of the other weeks.

We’ll be back again after Week 8 to provide another update on the experts making the most accurate predictions. Until then, be sure to check out the experts’ weekly rankings to help with your lineup decisions.

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