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6 Overvalued Fantasy Basketball Players (2019)

by Zachary Hanshew | @ZaktheMonster | Featured Writer
Oct 12, 2019

Jayson Tatum may not be worth a mid-third-round pick in fantasy this season.

Fantasy basketball is back and draft season is now! Each season, we see players who were thought to be sure-fire elite performers fail to live up to expectations. That’s not to say these guys won’t have great seasons, but they aren’t worth their asking price. Today, we’ll name six players who should be avoided at their current Average Draft Position (ADP).

This article is based on eight-category roto scoring. Average Draft Position (ADP) based on FantasyPros Consensus ADP.

Kawhi Leonard (F – LAC): ADP 11
Leonard led the Raptors to the first NBA Championship in franchise history. In a season for the ages, Leonard averaged 26.6 points and 7.3 rebounds — both career highs for the veteran forward. The San Diego State product put the franchise on his back and carried the team passed the defending-champ Golden State Warriors in a six-game showdown. Despite Leonard’s massive year in Canada, he wasn’t always readily available, sitting 22 games and playing only 60 in the regular season. That “load management” translates well to real-life value, though it’s not conducive for a first-round fantasy pick. He’s also playing on a much more talented team, with guys like Lou Williams, Montrezl Harrell, and Paul George, who will lighten Leonard’s workload.

Players I like more in this range: Russell Westbrook (G – OKC), Andre Drummond (C – DET)

Jayson Tatum (F – BOS): ADP 31
Tatum had enormous expectations heading into 2019-20, but he wasn’t able to live up to them. He averaged 15.7 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 2.1 assists — all career highs — though he was inconsistent on offense, thanks to some deficiencies in his overall shooting. With Gordon Hayward potentially back to full health headed into the season and the additions of Kemba Walker and Enes Kanter, Tatum will need to improve his efficiency to make an impact in Boston. There’s a chance he takes a step forward in his third season, but he won’t be productive enough to warrant a mid-third-round pick.

Players I like more in this range: Draymond Green (F-GSW), Clint Capela (C – HOU)

Tobias Harris (F – PHI): ADP 42
Harris signed a max extension this offseason after averaging 20.0 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 2.9 assists in his first year with the 76ers. Despite his success in Philly, this is a crowded team with a lot of talent on it, and the additions of Al Horford and Josh Richardson only diminish the fantasy allure of Harris. He’s a valuable fantasy asset, but an early fourth-round asking price is too steep with so many talented players left on the board.

Players I like more in this range: Mitchell Robinson (C – NYK), Otto Porter Jr. (F – CHI)

Mike Conley (G – UTA): ADP 54
Conley was highly productive in his 12-year career with the Grizzlies, leading the team through multiple playoff runs, and even hosting some Western Conference playoff games in the Grind House. It’s a new world for the veteran point guard, who finds himself on a team loaded with talent. Joe Ingles, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Rudy Gobert will all need to stay involved, but Conley’s biggest competition for minutes comes in the form of budding superstar Donovan Mitchell – the most talented backcourt teammate Conley has ever had.

Players I like more in this range: Thomas Bryant (C – WAS), Danilo Gallinari (F – OKC)

Kyle Kuzma (F – LAL): ADP 76
Kuzma won’t be nearly as involved as he was last season thanks to the arrival of new franchise superstar Anthony Davis. Kuz averaged a career-high 18.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.5 assists in his second season, though his shooting (45.6 FG%, 30.3 3Pt%, 75.2 FT%) left much to be desired. Kuzma should still maintain a strong scoring presence, but with Anthony Davis hogging touches and gobbling up boards, a downturn in production in scoring and rebounding seems likely.

Players I like more in this range: Brook Lopez (C – MIL), Robert Covington (F – MIN)

Victor Oladipo (G – IND): ADP 82
Oladipo is a bonafide stud when on the court, but he’s still rehabbing a major knee injury sustained last season. He’s unlikely to take the court before December, and his timetable could be even longer, depending on how his rehab progresses and how the team decides to bring him along. Indiana added a plethora of talent on the wing this offseason, so there shouldn’t be a rush to return the franchise star. Even when he returns, he may be eased back into action. It’s best to avoid Oladipo at this range in fantasy drafts.

Players I like more in this range: Jeremy Lamb (G/F – IND), Wendell Carter (G – CHI)

For more draft prep, check out our other fantasy basketball articles:

Top 150 Rankings with Notes
8 Players to Target in Drafts
12 Fantasy Basketball Sleepers

Zachary Hanshew is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Zachary, check out his archive and follow him @zakthemonster.

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