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Analyzing Vegas Odds: Week 6 (2019)

by Raju Byfield | @FantasyContext | Featured Writer
Oct 9, 2019

Pat Mahomes remains a solid DFS option this week in what Vegas has projected as a high-scoring game.

Analyzing Vegas Odds has long been a tool fantasy football players utilize to make lineup decisions. The rise of daily fantasy sports has made Vegas lines, odds, totals, and implied scores an invaluable resource for DFS players who select new rosters daily.

This week we will take a look at two contests with the highest over/under totals of the week. A high total promises the potential for a high scoring affair and as a result more fantasy production opportunities for the respective skill players involved in the contests.

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Date Favorite Spread Underdog Total Away Moneyline Home Moneyline
Sunday, October 13, 2019 at Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 Houston Texans 55 +180 -225


This line for this contest opened at -8.5 on Kansas City. The Chiefs loss to Indianapolis on Sunday Night Football played a large part in dropping this line a massive four points to -4.5. Kansas City looked human after Patrick Mahomes hurt his ankle and the team may be without both Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins for this weekend’s contest. If either player appears set to play, the line could jump up to the -5.5 or -6 range. 

Quarterback is where the fun starts for this contest. Patrick Mahomes appears set to get back on track against Houston and is priced accordingly (first in salary rank). Watson is coming off his best game of the season and could be in line for another massive game heading into a battle with the highest over/under total of the week. Watson is a better value at DraftKings (fourth in salary rank) than at Yahoo or FanDuel (second at both). Both QBs are priced so as owners who roster them will have to make serious lineup concessions elsewhere, but are well worth the risk.

At tight end, Travis Kelce remains a strong, high floor option with the price tag to match. Despite a season-high in targets in Week 5, Kelce recorded his season-low in fantasy points. The Texans have been victimized by tight ends dating back to last season which should lead to a high volume game for the talented tight end. The Arizona Cardinals do not utilize the tight end in the passing game anywhere close to a consistent basis making both Charles Clay and Maxx Williams safe to ignore in all DFS tournaments. 

At running back Carlos Hyde strangely looks like best DFS bet for this weekend. His combination of upside and low price tag make him someone to seriously consider for this weekend’s contests. Hyde is an excellent value at DraftKings. Duke Johnson is a multiple lineup play only. On Kansas City, we have a bit of a mess. LeSean McCoy was put in the doghouse after a first-half fumble and game flow limited carry opportunities. It will take at least one more week before we get a clear depiction of what the Chiefs backfield split may look like going forward. With that in mind, all three Chiefs running backs are risky, low floor options. If you have to choose between the Chiefs backs, LeSean McCoy is the best bet at Yahoo due to his relative price tag. 

At wide receiver, the Texans present us with the usual suspects. Deandre Hopkins remains one of the very best football has to offer. Will Fuller proved in Week 5 that he can torture weak corners. Tied for first in the league with 12 deep targets, Fuller is a big play waiting to happen. After his Week 5 explosion, Fuller sits ahead of Hopkins in total fantasy points and is priced as an excellent potential value across the board. 

Kansas City presents more of a muddied picture. If Tyreek Hill is back he would be the lone high floor option among the Chiefs receivers. If Hill and Sammy Watkins are both out Byron Pringle could become the chalkiest play of the weekend due to his low price tag. He looked like a man on a mission in Week 5 and has certainly earned himself more snaps in the offense; the question is how much. If Hill or Watkins are active, but the other is not then both Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson remain high risk/high reward plays. They are potential steals at Yahoo. 

 

Date Favorite Spread Underdog Total Away Moneyline Home Moneyline
Sunday, October 13, 2019 Atlanta Falcons -2.5 at Arizona Cardinals 52 -140 +120


Both lines for this contest have seen some movement. The point spread dropped from -3 to -2.5 on the Falcons. The over/under total has skyrocketed due to action from sharps and early bettors, pushing the total from 47.5 to 52 points. 

Kyler Murray and Matt Ryan both appear to be strong options this weekend. Ryan is priced accordingly but is still someone to target if you cannot fit one of the big three into your lineup price tag wise. Kyler Murray is highly intriguing going against the Falcons, as he could have his very best day as a pro. Fresh off his first QB1 outing of the season (QB5), Murray appears to be a sneaky high floor option whose ownership may not match his upside. He is an elite potential value at Yahoo as the QB19 in salary rank. The implied score for this contest gives both quarterbacks three touchdown upside. 

At tight end there is only one player to consider, and his name is Austin Hooper. Hooper is the TE1 on the season and is facing a Cardinals defense that has allowed the most fantasy points per game to the tight end position. The raw numbers are simply salivation worthy: 7.2 receptions, 92.2 receiving yards, and 1.2 touchdowns surrendered per game. Hooper deserves an extended look for this weekend’s contests. Not buying into Hopper yet? He leads the Atlanta Falcons in receptions (34), receiving yards (363), and yards after catch (163). Hooper is a better value at DraftKings and FanDuel.

Julio Jones has already found the end zone four times this season. Unfortunately, as alluded to above, he has not been as involved in the offense as one would like. He is seeing just 20 percent of the team’s targets on the season. The air yards and air yard percentage he has seen have kept him relevant, but his pricing has not been adjusted to reflect his number two receiver level target volume. If there was ever a week for Julio to get back on track, this would be it. Mohamed Sanu and Calvin Ridley both have boom potential, but the bust potential is worrisome. Either of these receivers could end up the fifth target on any given week making them both risky propositions at best. They are best left for those entering multiple lineups into GPP contests. Ridley is priced as a potential value at FanDuel. Sanu is a potential value at Yahoo and DraftKings. 

With Christian Kirk banged up and questionable for this weekend’s contest, Larry Fitzgerald is the receiver to target from the Cardinals. Atlanta’s defense has been atrocious this season and could very well relinquish a WR1 outing to Larry Legend. KeeSean Johnson received seven targets last week and could be a sneaky contrarian play if Kirk is unable to suit up. Speaking of Kirk, if he can get in multiple full designations in practice this week, he will be worth a hard look against a decrepit Falcons secondary relinquishing the most fantasy points to the wide receiver position.  

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his profile and follow him @FantasyContext.

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