Skip to main content

Analyzing Vegas Odds: Week 8 (2019)

Analyzing Vegas Odds: Week 8 (2019)

Are you looking for an edge in DFS contests? Analyzing and understanding Vegas odds is a helpful tool to help one gain insight into what the sharps and super algorithms in Sin City think about a particular contest. When deciding between competing lineup options, implied score and game script can help you to identify the stronger potential option. The point spread and total clue you into the implied score, and the implied score and point spread can help you gain insight into the potential game script. This week we will take a look at the two contests with the highest over/under totals on the main slate. 

Win $1 Million playing FanDuel’s NFL Sunday Million partner-arrow

Date Favorite Spread Underdog Total Away Moneyline Home Moneyline
Sunday, October 27, 2019 Seattle Seahawks -3.5 at Atlanta Falcons 53.5 -180 +150

 

The contest with the highest total of the week is always one to look to attack in DFS. It may be a single player who catches your eye, or you may look to stack several players from the same team. This contest opened with the highest over/under total of the week and promises plenty of scoring from both offenses. The Atlanta Falcons have been a fantasy goldmine this season. Attacking them on defense when making lineup decisions can lead to bountiful production. Before this week, Austin Hooper and Matt Ryan were high floor options every week. And with Mohamed Sanu traded to the Patriots, determining which Falcons receivers to target is no longer a guessing game. 

At quarterback, we have two terrific options to choose from. Russell Wilson is currently the QB3 on the season, while Matt Ryan checks in as the QB6. Wilson has been more locked in on the road this season, where his Seahawks are currently undefeated. His completion percentage jumps 15 points to 77.1 percent, and his yards per attempt rise from 8.3 to 8.7. Wilson is a terrific play against the worst secondary in the NFC. Matt Ryan has made a killing this season while playing with a negative game script, and he should continue to do the same against the Seattle Seahawks. Losing Mohamed Sanu to the Patriots lowers his floor, but he still has the weapons to produce at a QB1 level this weekend. Matt Ryan is a solid value at DraftKings and Yahoo. Wilson, is, unfortunately, the salary based QB1 across the board for this weekend’s contests. That said, it’s certainly appropriate for him.

At running back, there is only one option to consider from this contest. Devonta Freeman should see a larger snap count this weekend with Ito Smith ruled out, but he will be facing a defense that limited Joe Mixon, James Conner, David Johnson, and Mark Ingram to under four yards per carry. When you combine that with the game flow that will likely lead the Falcons to go pass-heavy, Freeman is a back to fade despite the Seahawks relinquishing five running back receptions per game. Chris Carson appears to be in a get right spot against a pitiful Atlanta Falcons that has allowed 96.14 rushing yards and 0.71 touchdowns per game. Their surface numbers of only 3.72 rushing yards against may signal a Carson fade, but more in-depth analysis reveals some interesting data. The Falcons have faced three backs who rank as RB1s this season. In those contests, they have surrendered two 100 yard games and 4.08 yards per carry. Carson could be a solid value at both Yahoo and DraftKings. 

At wide receiver, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are both reliable options for main slate contests. Sanu’s departure means more volume for Atlanta’s top two wideouts and raises the theoretical floor for both. The Falcons are projected as underdogs in a contest with the highest total of the week, making Jones and Ridley worth extended looks. Ridley is priced as an exceptional value at FanDuel, and he is still a value play at both Yahoo and DraftKings. Julio is top-five in salary rank at all three sites, but he now possesses a much safer weekly floor.

D.K. Metcalf led the Seahawks in targets in Week 7 and has a dream matchup on tap for Week 8. He is an excellent value at DraftKings and Yahoo. Lockett has appeal across the board despite a price tag that tops out as the WR10 at DraftKings and bottoms at the WR14 at FanDuel. Barring an extra run-heavy gameplan, Lockett has an excellent opportunity to finish the week as a WR1 and is priced accordingly. 

At tight end, Jacob Hollister is worth a multiple-entry look for those looking to squeeze a low-cost flier into one of their lineups. Hollister saw six targets in Week 7 and could see a similar workload if this contest holds true to the implied score. One of the winners of the Mohamed Sanu trade, Austin Hooper sees both his weekly ceiling and floor raised. He looks to be a bargain at FanDuel and DraftKings (TE4). He is the TE1 in salary rank at Yahoo.

 

Date Favorite Spread Underdog Total Away Moneyline Home Moneyline
Sunday, October 27, 2019 at Houston Texans -6.5 Oakland Raiders 51.5 +215 -275

 

The contest with the second-highest over/under total of the week also has some intriguing options. The Texans currently sit as 6.5 point favorites, and the implied score and game script could limit the carries for the Raiders backfield and spike the targets for both offenses. The 48 point opening total promised plenty of scoring, but the 51.5 current total looks even better. 

The Raiders and the Texans have both found themselves in the top five of fantasy points against by the quarterback position after seven weeks of action. Derek Carr is not someone you would generally consider for single entry DFS lineups, but this week may be one of the rare exceptions. The Texans have relinquished a whopping 294.57 passing yards and 2.14 touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks. The Raiders have been even worse against enemy signal callers and have surrendered 301.67 passing yards and 2.67 touchdowns per contest. Very little convincing should be necessary to convince DFS owners to consider starting the current QB2 on the season. Still, the Raiders’ sieve-like defense against the pass can help justify Deshaun Watson’s price tag at the three major DFS sites. Carr has yet to put up a top-15 performance this season, but he could crack the top 10 in Week 8.

At running back, Josh Jacobs is always worth a long hard look. He continues to impress with his ‘all heart’ running style a-la Chris Carson, but he continues to show why he was a more heralded prospect than the Seahawks’ starter. Jacobs has averaged 92.3 rushing yards per game (fifth in the league) on the season and has caught all seven of his targets over his last three weeks of action. He saw just three targets and one reception through his first three contests.

Carlos Hyde is also worth a long look for this weekend’s contests. Duke Johnson proved that he might be more involved when the Texans fall behind in games, but that is not a concern against the lowly Oakland Raiders. Hyde could receive upwards of 20 touches in Week 8, and he appears to be a solid value-based play. A bargain across the board, Hyde is squaring off against a Raiders defense allowing 20.67 carries and 6.67 receptions per game to the running back position. The Raiders have been solid in the yards per carry against department this season (3.88), but those numbers have benefited tremendously from facing only one RB1 all season. Both Jacobs and Hyde appear to be solid values at DraftKings and Yahoo. 

At wide receiver, the Raiders present no options truly worth considering outside of single-game DFS contests. The Texans, on the other hand, present two truly intriguing options. Near the top of the price tag list across the board, we have DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins has been a relative disappointment through seven games, but still has a rather solid 72.6 receiving yards per contest with three total touchdowns. With Will Fuller on the wrong side of doubtful for Week 8, Kenny Stills becomes a highly intriguing option worthy of consideration. He had his best game of the season with Will Fuller exiting early in the first quarter and posted 105 receiving yards from four receptions. Kenny Stills is a true value across the board, but he stands out more at DraftKings and FanDuel. 

At tight end, we have the opposite scenario. The Texans have no options truly worthy of consideration as Jordan Akins and Darren Fells directly cannibalize each other’s upside. Darren Waller, on the other hand, is worthy of weekly attention. Tackled at the one-yard line, with another touchdown wiped out by a penalty, Waller had his true breakout game of the season in Week 8. He went off for seven receptions, 126 yards, and two touchdowns, and he had a third score called back due to an offensive holding penalty. The Texans have been weak against tight ends dating back to last season, and they have allowed five receptions for 57 yards per contest to the TE1s they have faced this season. As his team’s only healthy, reliable receiving weapon outside of their running backs, Waller is averaging 7.2 receptions and 82 receiving yards per game on the season. The converted wide receiver is priced accordingly across the board and will require some salary cap gymnastics to fit under DFS contest based caps. 

Create Optimal FanDuel lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool partner-arrow


SubscribeApple Podcasts | Google Play | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | RSS

Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his profile and follow him @FantasyContext.

More Articles

RB3s with RB1 Potential (2024 Fantasy Football)

RB3s with RB1 Potential (2024 Fantasy Football)

fp-headshot by TJ Horgan | 3 min read
Best Ball Strategy & Advice: Draft Targets by Round (2024 Fantasy Football)

Best Ball Strategy & Advice: Draft Targets by Round (2024 Fantasy Football)

fp-headshot by Tera Roberts | 3 min read
NFL Draft Burning Questions: J.J. McCarthy, Drake Maye, Caleb Williams (2024 Fantasy Football)

NFL Draft Burning Questions: J.J. McCarthy, Drake Maye, Caleb Williams (2024 Fantasy Football)

fp-headshot by Joe Pepe | 3 min read
Thor Nystrom’s 2024 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings: Running Backs

Thor Nystrom’s 2024 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings: Running Backs

fp-headshot by Thor Nystrom | 1 min read

About Author

Hide

Current Article

5 min read

RB3s with RB1 Potential (2024 Fantasy Football)

Next Up - RB3s with RB1 Potential (2024 Fantasy Football)

Next Article