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DRAFT NFL Lineup Advice: Week 6

Oct 11, 2019

Zeke has a great matchup and expected game script this weekend

Here’s a look at 10 team DRAFT lineup advice for Week 6 Sunday Only NFL contests. As a reminder, this contest doesn’t include the Thursday game, Sunday night game or the Monday night game. I provide my rankings per position, a summary of each position and I conclude the article with a sample draft to give you a sense of how to approach your DRAFT contests.

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Quarterback

Player Team Opponent Round
1. Patrick Mahomes KC vs HOU 2
2. Deshaun Watson HOU @KC 2
3. Matt Ryan ATL @ARI 3
4. Kyler Murray ARI vs ATL 3
5. Lamar Jackson BAL vs CIN 4
6. Dak Prescott DAL @NYJ 4
7. Russell Wilson SEA @CLE 4
8. Kirk Cousins MIN vs PHI 5
9. Jared Goff LAR vs SF 5
10. Gardner Minshew JAX vs NO 5

My top four quarterbacks all come from two games. Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson go head to head in Week 6 and they should both come out slinging. Houston’s offense came to life last week against the Falcons and we should expect them to put up big numbers again this week as they will likely have to in order to keep up with Mahomes and the Chiefs. There looks to be a pretty good chance Mahomes gets Tyreek Hill back this week. Even without Tyreek Hill, Mahomes is my number one pick at quarterback. With him, Mahomes probably moves up to a first round pick for me.

Matt Ryan and Kyler Murray come in as my number three and four quarterbacks in Week 6. Both of these defenses have been torched through the air so far in 2019. The weaknesses of the defenses match up very well with the strengths of the opponent’s offense too. Last week the Bengals tight ends didn’t have much success, but before this game the Cardinals gave up huge performances each and every week. In weeks 1-4 the Cardinals gave up the overall TE2, TE1, TE1, and TE3 performances. Austin Hooper has been a big part of this offense and he is in a blow up spot this week. The Falcons defense is especially weak against wide receivers and the Cardinals should be able to expose this with Larry Fitzgerald and whoever plays alongside him on Sunday.

Running Back

Player Team Opponent Round
1. Ezekiel Elliott DAL @NYJ 1
2. Alvin Kamara NO @JAX 1
3. Dalvin Cook MIN vs PHI 1
4. Le’Veon Bell NYJ vs DAL 1
5. Nick Chubb CLE vs SEA 1
6. Chris Carson SEA @CLE 1
7. Leonard Fournette JAX vs NO 1
8. Mark Ingram BAL vs CIN 1
9. Derrick Henry TEN @DEN 2
10. Phillip Lindsay DEN vs TEN 2
11. Joe Mixon CIN @BAL 2
12. Todd Gurley LAR vs SF 3
13. David Johnson ARI vs ATL 3
14. Devonta Freeman ATL @ARI 4
15. Damien Williams KC vs HOU 4
16. LeSean McCoy KC vs HOU 4
17. Carlos Hyde HOU @KC 5
18. Duke Johnson HOU @KC 5
19. Adrian Peterson WSH @MIA 5
20. Kenyan Drake MIA vs WSH 5

The top eight running backs are all averaging at least 20 looks (rushing attempts + targets) per game except for Mark Ingram. Mark Ingram doesn’t get the same volume as the rest of this group, but with the Ravens being large favorites he comes in as a first round pick for me due to multi-touchdown upside. The Ravens get the Bengals this week, who have been awful against the run.

If I take zero running backs in the first two rounds, I will try to take Todd Gurley or David Johnson in the third round. I then try to take Devonta Freeman or a running back from the Texans and Chiefs game in the fourth or fifth round.

If I take one running back in the first two rounds I will select another position in the third round and wait until the fourth or fifth round and take my highest ranked running back.

Wide Receiver/ Tight End

Player Team Opponent Round
1. Michael Thomas NO @JAX 1
2. Julio Jones ATL @ARI 1
3. Cooper Kupp LAR vs SF 2
4. DeAndre Hopkins HOU @KC 2
5. Amari Cooper DAL @NYJ 2
6. Adam Thielen MIN vs PHI 2
7. Tyler Lockett SEA @CLE 2
8. Odell Beckham Jr. CLE vs SEA 3
9. Travis Kelce KC vs HOU 3
10. George Kittle SF @LAR 3
11. Tyreek Hill KC vs HOU 3
12. Tyler Boyd CIN @BAL 3
13. Will Fuller HOU @KC 3
14. Austin Hooper ATL @ARI 4
15. Robert Woods LAR vs SF 4
16. Will Dissly SEA @CLE 4
17. Stefon Diggs MIN vs PHI 4
18. Calvin Ridley ATL @ARI 5
19. D.J. Chark JAX vs NO 5
20. Larry Fitzgerald ARI vs ATL 5

Last week Julio Jones and Deandre Hopkins disappointed in a high scoring game. Will Fuller scored all of the fantasy points for the Texans, while Matt Ryan spread the ball out and Julio disappeared in the second half. Julio’s disappearance in the second half was likely due to the hip problem that kept him out of practice Wednesday. He got in a limited practice Thursday and should be good to go. Both Hopkins and Julio are in a terrific spot again this week in games with high over/unders.  Julio is an end of the first round pick for me and Hopkins is an early second round pick. It’s just a matter of time until these guys go off for double digit catches, big yardage and multiple touchdowns. Get some exposure to these two this week.

There are three games with an O/U of at least 50 this week. Over half of my top 20 pass catchers in this contest come from these games. My favorite value of the week also comes from one of these games. Austin Hooper has improved every year that he has been in the league and is a major part of the Falcons’ offense in 2019. Hooper is just behind Julio Jones for second in targets on the team. His target share of 20% is the seventh highest among tight ends in the NFL. As mentioned earlier, the Cardinals have been absolutely shredded by tight ends. Austin Hooper will be available in the fifth round in almost every draft.

Sample Draft

My pick: 1st

1st roundEzekiel Elliott (RB – DAL)
For some reason the Cowboys only gave Zeke 12 carries in the game last week against the Packers. In a game they are favored to win by 7 points, Zeke should get fed the rock.

2nd roundDerrick Henry (RB – TEN)
If I can get two of my running backs that I have ranked in the top two rounds I am very happy.

3rd roundDeshaun Watson (QB – HOU)
Watson usually is not around at this point of the draft. He often goes in the early second round. I am very happy to pair him with two of my top running backs.

4th roundWill Fuller (WR – HOU)
Will Fuller erupted last week for over 200 receiving yards and three touchdowns last week. He gets the Chiefs secondary to pick apart this week. There should be plenty of targets to go around for the Texans in Week 6.

5th roundAustin Hooper (TE – ATL)
Hooper is my most common pick in the WR/TE slot when I take two running backs early. He is in a prime spot this week.

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1Christian McCaffrey (CAR)RB
2Dalvin Cook (MIN)RB
3Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)RB
4Josh Jacobs (OAK)RB
5Leonard Fournette (JAC)RB
6Melvin Gordon (LAC)RB
7Nick Chubb (CLE)RB
8Tyreek Hill (KC)WR
9Alvin Kamara (NO)RB
10Michael Thomas (NO)WR
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11James Conner (PIT)RB
12Mike Evans (TB)WR
13Marlon Mack (IND)RB
14Le'Veon Bell (NYJ)RB
15Tevin Coleman (SF)RB
16Julio Jones (ATL)WR
17DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)WR
18Damien Williams (KC)RB
19Brian Hill (ATL)RB
20Devin Singletary (BUF)RB
21Mark Ingram (BAL)RB
22Amari Cooper (DAL)WR
23Joe Mixon (CIN)RB
24Chris Godwin (TB)WR
25Todd Gurley (LAR)RB
26Cooper Kupp (LAR)WR
27Julian Edelman (NE)WR
28D.J. Moore (CAR)WR
29Travis Kelce (KC)TE
30Keenan Allen (LAC)WR
1Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)LF,CF
2Nolan Arenado (COL)3B
3Mookie Betts (BOS)CF,RF
4J.D. Martinez (BOS)LF,RF
5Trevor Story (COL)SS
6Justin Verlander (HOU)SP
7Cody Bellinger (LAD)1B,CF
8Trea Turner (WSH)SS
9Alex Bregman (HOU)3B,SS
10Jacob deGrom (NYM)SP
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11Max Scherzer (WSH)SP
12Francisco Lindor (CLE)SS
13Gerrit Cole (FA)SP
14Freddie Freeman (ATL)1B
15Javier Baez (CHC)2B,3B
16Charlie Blackmon (COL)CF
17Aaron Judge (NYY)RF,DH
18Juan Soto (WSH)LF
19Anthony Rendon (FA)3B
20Bryce Harper (PHI)CF,RF
21Jose Altuve (HOU)2B
22Xander Bogaerts (BOS)SS
23Starling Marte (PIT)CF
24Walker Buehler (LAD)SP
25Manny Machado (SD)3B,SS
26Anthony Rizzo (CHC)1B
27Kris Bryant (CHC)3B,RF
28Whit Merrifield (KC)1B,2B
29George Springer (HOU)CF,RF
30Paul Goldschmidt (STL)1B
1Anthony Davis (LAL)PF,C
2James Harden (HOU)PG,SG
3Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)SF,PF
4Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN)C
5Kevin Durant (BKN)SF,PF
6LeBron James (LAL)SF,PF
7Stephen Curry (GSW)PG,SG
8Nikola Jokic (DEN)PF,C
9Damian Lillard (POR)PG
10Russell Westbrook (HOU)PG
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11Victor Oladipo (IND)PG,SG
12Paul George (LAC)SF,PF
13Joel Embiid (PHI)PF,C
14Kawhi Leonard (LAC)SG,SF
15Chris Paul (OKC)PG
16Jimmy Butler (MIA)SG,SF
17Kemba Walker (BOS)PG
18Ben Simmons (PHI)PG,SF
19Kyrie Irving (BKN)PG,SG
20Jrue Holiday (NOR)PG,SG
21Rudy Gobert (UTH)C
22Andre Drummond (DET)PF,C
23John Wall (WAS)PG
24Kyle Lowry (TOR)PG
25Donovan Mitchell (UTH)PG,SG
26Khris Middleton (MIL)SG,SF
27Bradley Beal (WAS)SG
28Kevin Love (CLE)PF,C
29Draymond Green (GSW)PF,C
30LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS)PF,C
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