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DRAFT NFL Lineup Advice: Week 7

Oct 18, 2019

Lamar Jackson ran the ball nearly 20 times last week

Here’s a look at 10 team DRAFT lineup advice for Week 7 Sunday Only NFL contests. As a reminder, this contest doesn’t include the Thursday game, Sunday night game or the Monday night game. I provide my rankings per position, a summary of each position and I conclude the article with a sample draft to give you a sense of how to approach your DRAFT contests.

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Quarterback

Player Team Opponent Round
1. Lamar Jackson BAL @SEA 3
2. Deshaun Watson HOU @IND 3
3. Kyler Murray ARI @NYG 3
4. Matt Ryan ATL vs LAR 3
5. Russell Wilson SEA vs BAL 4
6. Jared Goff LAR @ATL 4
7. Aaron Rodgers GB vs OAK 4
8. Josh Allen BUF vs MIA 4
9. Gardner Minshew JAX @CIN 5
10. Philip Rivers LAC @TEN 5

Over his last five games, Lamar Jackson has averaged 13.2 carries and 90.8 rushing yards per game. So Lamar is giving you a floor of nine fantasy points without throwing the ball once. He has broken off a few big runs lately and is always a threat to run for multiple touchdowns. On top of this Seattle is weak against tight ends. Baltimore plays a ton of 12 personnel (one running back and two tight ends) and Mark Andrews has been a force in 2019. Baltimore’s tight ends have averaged 116 air yards per game, which leads the NFL. I expect Lamar Jackson to be successful on the ground and through the air with his tight ends.

I have taken Lamar Jackson in the third round several times. Because I can get him in the third, I wait on quarterback until at least the third round. I am trying to avoid getting too many shares of Gardner Minshew and Philip Rivers. As the weekend goes on, if I am finding it hard to get one of my eight running backs ahead of these two, I will move all of my quarterbacks back a round earlier.

Running Back

Player Team Opponent Round
1. Leonard Fournette JAX @CIN 1
2. Dalvin Cook MIN @DET 1
3. Saquon Barkley NYG vs ARI 1
4. David Johnson ARI @NYG 1
5. Chris Carson SEA vs BAL 1
6. Josh Jacobs OAK @GB 1
7. Derrick Henry TEN vs LAC 3
8. Kerryon Johnson DET vs MIN 3
9. Melvin Gordon LAC @TEN 3
10. Mark Ingram BAL @SEA 3
11. Marlon Mack IND vs HOU 3
12. Aaron Jones GB vs OAK 3
13. Joe Mixon CIN vs JAX 4
14. Devonta Freeman ATL vs LAR 4
15. Todd Gurley LAR @ATL 4
16. Tevin Coleman SF @WSH 5
17. Devin Singletary BUF vs MIA 5
18. Carlos Hyde HOU @IND 5
19. Matt Breida SF @WSH 5
20. Austin Ekeler LAC @TEN 5

Leonard Fournette has averaged 19.2 carries and 6.0 targets per game. After a slow start, Fournette has totaled over 100 all-purpose yards in each of his last three games. This includes last week against a tough New Orleans Saints run defense. This week Fournette gets the Cincinnati Bengals who are right there with the Dolphins for the most fantasy points allowed per game to running backs. He should see at least 20 combined carries and targets, with a ceiling well above 30.

After my top six running backs, I don’t have a lot of confidence in anyone’s role/matchup. Because of this, I don’t have any running backs ranked as a second round pick. Kerryon Johnson has been available in the third round in about half of my drafts. Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley slip into the fourth about a third of the time. These are all great values that have me skipping over running backs in the second round.

Wide Receiver/ Tight End

Player Team Opponent Round
1. Cooper Kupp LAR @ATL 1
2. Michael Thomas NO @CHI 1
3. DeAndre Hopkins HOU @IND 1
4. Julio Jones ATL vs LAR 1
5. Keenan Allen LAC @TEN 2
6. Tyler Lockett SEA vs BAL 2
7. T.Y. Hilton IND vs HOU 2
8. Kenny Golladay DET vs MIN 2
9. Evan Engram NYG vs ARI 2
10. Robert Woods LAR @ATL 2
11. Larry Fitzgerald ARI @NYG 2
12. John Brown BUF vs MIA 2
13. D.J. Chark JAX @CIN 2
14. Will Fuller HOU @IND 2
15. Brandin Cooks LAR @ATL 4
16. Adam Thielen MIN @DET 4
17. Stefon Diggs MIN @DET 4
18. Allen Robinson CHI vs NO 5
19. Calvin Ridley ATL vs LAR 5
20. Mark Andrews BAL @SEA 5

Cooper Kupp sits atop my pass-catcher list for the first time ever. While I still rank the talent of several players on this list higher than Kupp, his matchup this week is too enticing. Excluding the poor showing from the entire Rams offense last week, Kupp has averaged 12.6 targets and 101 receiving yards per game. He also has four touchdowns on the season and the most red zone targets on the Rams with seven. He now faces off against the Atlanta Falcons who have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. The over/under for this game opened at 52.5 and now ranges from 54.5 to 55 on different sites. This could easily turn into a shootout and Kupp will be heavily involved.

I am drafting a wide receiver in the second round of every single draft I will do this weekend (unless one of my top six running backs somehow falls into the second round). This means I am going to get my pick of a lot of wide receivers I like. If my pick is at the end of the 1st round, I am generally taking two top wide receivers (my top six running backs are almost always gone by pick eight). If I don’t take two wide receivers in the first two rounds, I try to get a mix of Kenny Golladay, Evan Engram, Robert Woods, and Larry Fitzgerald in the third to fifth rounds.

Sample Draft

My pick: 5th

1st round – Chris Carson (RB – SEA)
Chris Carson has been a workhorse with Rashaad Penny out of the lineup. Penny will likely be back this week, but Carson has already taken a stranglehold on the position.

2nd round – Keenan Allen (WR LAC)
Keenan Allen saw 42 targets over his first three games and 17 over his last three. It’s another tough matchup against the Titans in Tennessee, but Keenan Allen still offers tons of upside and could easily see over ten targets.

3rd round – Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL)
See the quarterback section above for my analysis on Jackson this week.

4th round – Melvin Gordon (RB – LAC)
Melvin Gordon saw 60% of snaps compared to Ekeler’s 45% in a Week 6 matchup that saw the Chargers trailing throughout. It won’t be long until Gordon is back to an every week RB1. Take advantage of the discount this week.

5th round – Larry Fitzgerald (WR- ARI)
Fitzgerald gets a good matchup in a game with a high over/under. He hasn’t found the end zone since Week 3, but he leads the team with seven red-zone targets. He will get in the end zone sooner rather than later.

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Steven Roy is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Steven, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Rockhead_Roy.

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1Christian McCaffrey (CAR)RB
2Dalvin Cook (MIN)RB
3Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)RB
4Josh Jacobs (OAK)RB
5Leonard Fournette (JAC)RB
6Melvin Gordon (LAC)RB
7Nick Chubb (CLE)RB
8Tyreek Hill (KC)WR
9Alvin Kamara (NO)RB
10Michael Thomas (NO)WR
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11James Conner (PIT)RB
12Mike Evans (TB)WR
13Marlon Mack (IND)RB
14Le'Veon Bell (NYJ)RB
15Tevin Coleman (SF)RB
16Julio Jones (ATL)WR
17DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)WR
18Damien Williams (KC)RB
19Brian Hill (ATL)RB
20Devin Singletary (BUF)RB
21Mark Ingram (BAL)RB
22Amari Cooper (DAL)WR
23Joe Mixon (CIN)RB
24Chris Godwin (TB)WR
25Todd Gurley (LAR)RB
26Cooper Kupp (LAR)WR
27Julian Edelman (NE)WR
28D.J. Moore (CAR)WR
29Travis Kelce (KC)TE
30Keenan Allen (LAC)WR
1Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)LF,CF
2Nolan Arenado (COL)3B
3Mookie Betts (BOS)CF,RF
4J.D. Martinez (BOS)LF,RF
5Trevor Story (COL)SS
6Justin Verlander (HOU)SP
7Cody Bellinger (LAD)1B,CF
8Trea Turner (WSH)SS
9Alex Bregman (HOU)3B,SS
10Jacob deGrom (NYM)SP
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11Max Scherzer (WSH)SP
12Francisco Lindor (CLE)SS
13Gerrit Cole (FA)SP
14Freddie Freeman (ATL)1B
15Javier Baez (CHC)2B,3B
16Charlie Blackmon (COL)CF
17Aaron Judge (NYY)RF,DH
18Juan Soto (WSH)LF
19Anthony Rendon (FA)3B
20Bryce Harper (PHI)CF,RF
21Jose Altuve (HOU)2B
22Xander Bogaerts (BOS)SS
23Starling Marte (PIT)CF
24Walker Buehler (LAD)SP
25Manny Machado (SD)3B,SS
26Anthony Rizzo (CHC)1B
27Kris Bryant (CHC)3B,RF
28Whit Merrifield (KC)1B,2B
29George Springer (HOU)CF,RF
30Paul Goldschmidt (STL)1B
1Anthony Davis (LAL)PF,C
2James Harden (HOU)PG,SG
3Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)SF,PF
4Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN)C
5Kevin Durant (BKN)SF,PF
6LeBron James (LAL)SF,PF
7Stephen Curry (GSW)PG,SG
8Nikola Jokic (DEN)PF,C
9Damian Lillard (POR)PG
10Russell Westbrook (HOU)PG
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11Victor Oladipo (IND)PG,SG
12Paul George (LAC)SF,PF
13Joel Embiid (PHI)PF,C
14Kawhi Leonard (LAC)SG,SF
15Chris Paul (OKC)PG
16Jimmy Butler (MIA)SG,SF
17Kemba Walker (BOS)PG
18Ben Simmons (PHI)PG,SF
19Kyrie Irving (BKN)PG,SG
20Jrue Holiday (NOR)PG,SG
21Rudy Gobert (UTH)C
22Andre Drummond (DET)PF,C
23John Wall (WAS)PG
24Kyle Lowry (TOR)PG
25Donovan Mitchell (UTH)PG,SG
26Khris Middleton (MIL)SG,SF
27Bradley Beal (WAS)SG
28Kevin Love (CLE)PF,C
29Draymond Green (GSW)PF,C
30LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS)PF,C
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