DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 6 (2019)
Last week’s picks were total duds, but I look to get back on track this week. Below are three high-ceiling standalone picks and a three-man stack tied to a gaudy team over/under total. Spoiler alert, that three-man stack isn’t from the highly-anticipated — likely — shootout between the Texans and Chiefs.
Emmanuel Sanders (WR – DEN): $4,800 vs. Titans
Sanders has been a boom-or-bust player this season. He has two games with 85-plus receiving yards and a touchdown and another north of 100 receiving yards, but he also has a pair of games with 10 yards or fewer. He’s coming off of a dud, and that could potentially serve to depress his ownership rate a bit this week. Additionally, his matchup isn’t going to elicit excitement with the Titans yielding the 11th fewest DraftKings points per game to wideouts this year, according to Pro-Football-Reference.
On the plus side, two of Sanders’ better games this year have been at home, and the Broncos are home this week. He was also significantly better at home than on the road last year, averaging 6.5 receptions and 87.3 receiving yards per game at home compared to 5.3 receptions and 57.3 receiving yards per game on the road last year. Perhaps the splits are little more than a small sample blip, but it could also be the product of playing with below-average quarterbacks and a product of those quarterbacks benefiting from a favorable environment with their home crowd. To that point, Joe Flacco has been considerably better at home than on the road in his career.
Circling back to his matchup, while the Titans are very good against receivers as previously noted, they aren’t necessarily a totally daunting matchup. Football Outsiders (FO) ranks them 14th in overall Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and 14th in pass defense DVOA. Also, they’re not great shakes in the red zone. Lineups has them tied for the third-worst red zone touchdown percentage. Sanders and Courtland Sutton are tied for Denver’s team lead in targets in the red zone with eight each, per Lineups. Add the touchdown potential to Sanders’ overall fantasy-point scoring profile, and his upside far surpasses his minimal salary commitment. He’s a solid GPP selection who’ll free up salary for some pricier options below.
Chris Carson (RB – SEA): $6,000 at Browns
Earlier in the week, I discussed Carson’s bellcow usage in Week 5 even with Rashaad Penny back in the fold. He’s carried the ball at least 15 times in all five games played this year, and he’s bested 20 carries in back-to-back contests. He’s also secured multiple receptions in three games this year. He’s being force-fed the ball, and he has a plum draw for a smash game at his hefty usage.
The Browns have yielded the seventh-most rushing yards (561) to running backs this year, and backs have gashed them for 4.92 yards per carry. FO ranks them 23rd in run defense DVOA. As fantasy football analyst John Daigle of Rotoworld/NBC tweeted out earlier in the week, the Seahawks have the fourth-highest run percentage in neutral game scripts thus far this year.
Highest Run% in Neutral Game Scripts Through Week 5 pic.twitter.com/TSGC7jlX31
— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) October 9, 2019
The Seahawks are 1.5-point favorites this week, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Odds are good Carson will see a massive workload in a drool-inducing matchup. Fire him up and enjoy watching him pile up points.
Tyreek Hill (WR – KC): $6,900 vs. Texans
Hill practiced in a limited fashion last week, but he was once again inactive. Hill didn’t participate in any contact drills, but it’s a step in the right direction. He’s still not yet certain to play, but head coach Andy Reid said he’ll know more as they get through the week. If Hill’s unable to go, teammate Travis Kelce is only $100 more at $7,000 and a viable pivot, albeit as a flex play since he’s not eligible at receiver like Hill.
As for Hill, assuming he’s back, the matchup looks good. The Texans have coughed up the sixth-most DraftKings points per game to wideouts. FO ranks them merely in the middle of the pack at 15th in pass defense DVOA.
The betting conditions are favorable for using Hill, too. The Chiefs are 5-point favorites in the game with the biggest over/under total of the week at 55.5 points. Kansas City’s implied over/under total is a tantalizing 30.25 points, and the spread that’s under a touchdown large suggests the Chiefs will have to keep their foot on the accelerator throughout the entire contest.
Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL): $6,900 vs. Bengals
Marquise Brown (WR – BAL): $6,200 vs. Bengals
Mark Ingram (RB – BAL): $6,600 vs. Bengals
Many gamers are likely to flock to the Texans at Chiefs contest for stacking, and I’ll have plenty of exposure to pieces from that contest and suggest you do the same. Having said that, Baltimore’s implied team over/under total is only one point lower than Kansas City’s at a tasty 29.25 points.
Lamar Jackson hasn’t been his sharpest over the last two weeks with four touchdown passes against five interceptions, and he’s failed to eclipse 250 passing yards in either game after opening the year with three straight contests clearing that threshold. Still, he’s helped make up for his turnovers and lackluster passing yardage totals by rushing for 136 yards over those two games combined. He’ll have a golden opportunity to roll up a big rushing yardage total against the Bengals this week. The Bengals have ceded the second-most rushing yards (152) to quarterbacks this year, just one yard behind the Cardinals NFL-high 153 rushing yards allowed to the position. Additionally, Jackson should have some success through the air as well since FO ranks Cincinnati 31st in pass defense DVOA.
“Hollywood” Brown makes for the best stack partner with Jackson this week. The rookie’s 23.8% target share this year is tied with teammate Mark Andrews’ mark for 25th, per Sports Info Solutions. More impressively, he ranks 12th in Intended Air Yards (512). The Bengals have been smashed with big passing plays and rank tied for the fifth-most 20-plus yard passes allowed with 20, according to NFL.com. Jackson shouldn’t see much in the way of pressure, as Pro-Football-Reference credits the Bengals with the seventh-fewest quarterback hits (21) and the fourth-lowest sack percentage (4.0%), opening the door for Brown to get downfield while Jackson avoids any duress.
Ingram rounds out the stack primarily because of the spread of the game and likely game script in a plus matchup. He’s only been targeted nine times this year and secured all of those targets for 67 receiving yards, but he could see a slight boost this week since the Bengals are tied for the second-most receptions (37) allowed to backs and have allowed the most receiving yards (374) and tied for the most receiving touchdowns (3) allowed to the position. Regardless, it’s an 11-point spread favoring the host Ravens that help Ingram’s cause for a big game against a putrid run defense the most.
The Bengals have been creamed for the second-most rushing yards (642) by backs this year, and they’re also tied for the second-most touchdowns (6) allowed on the ground to the position. Ingram’s 74.4 rushing yards per game this year are the 12th most, and FO ranks him fifth with 85 Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR). Ingram’s likely to be one of the chalkier backs this week, but he’s chalk worth eating.