A pair of receivers with big target share numbers and gaudy air yard totals headline the one-off suggestions. The high-ceiling wideouts are joined by a four-man game-stack featuring a quarterback/receiver pairing from one team and a running back and breakout tight end from the opposition.
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John Brown (WR – BUF): $5,900 vs. Eagles
Smokey has proven to be a great free-agent signing for the Bills. He’s been a model of week-to-week consistency. Brown’s caught at least four passes in all six games and five or more in five contests. He’s also bested 50 receiving yards every week and has 69 receiving yards or more in five contests.
He’s second on the Bills in targets (45), and he leads the way in receptions (33), receiving yards (473), and touchdown receptions (two). Brown also ranks well in a couple of notable categories relative to his peers across other squads, too. Brown’s 23.9% target share ranks 25th and his 629 Intended Air Yards rank 16th among receivers and tight ends this season, according to Sports Info Solutions. His rank in Intended Air Yards is made all the more impressive when factoring in that the Bills have already had their bye.
Brown’s consistency is nice, but his target share and air yards numbers point to a high weekly ceiling he’s yet to display. This could be the week he blows up with a drool-inducing matchup. Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Eagles 20th in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Additionally, they’ve yielded the most DraftKings points per game to receivers this year, per Pro-Football-Reference. Factor in Brown’s affordable salary, and he’s one of my favorite GPP options this week.
Mike Evans (WR – TB): $6,600 at Titans
While the aforementioned Brown has been a model of consistency, Evans hasn’t been. We’ve seen his worst in Week 5, with the Saints — and namely corner Marshon Lattimore — putting the clamps on and holding him to a bagel on three targets. Conversely, Evans showed his ceiling with a silly 8-190-3 line on 15 targets against the Giants in Week 3.
It’s hard to fault Evans for his inconsistency when he’s catching passes from the erratic Jameis Winston. Prior to the Buccaneers going on bye last week, Evans was targeted an absurd 17 times, and he hauled in nine receptions for 96 receiving yards and added a two-point conversion. Overall, Evans has posted even gaudier target share and Intended Air Yards numbers than Smokey.
Evans’ 25.1% target share ranks 17th and his 828 Intended Air Yards are the second-highest total trailing only Keenan Allen’s 862 — which he’s had the benefit of an extra game played to accumulate. Adding to Evans’ appeal is his red-zone usage and matchup in that area of the field.
Among receivers this year, Evans ranks tied for first with 11 targets in the red zone, per Lineups. His frequent looks in scoring territory could prove especially useful this week against the Titans. Lineups ranks the Titans tied for 20th in red-zone touchdown percentage. There’s a lot to like here with Evans, and with teammate and fellow wideout Chris Godwin outplaying him thus far this year, Evans is a decent bet to have his ownership rate suppressed a bit by Godwin.
Deshaun Watson (QB – HOU): $7,100 vs. Raiders
Kenny Stills (WR – HOU): $4,700 vs. Raiders
Josh Jacobs (RB – OAK): $5,800 at Texans
Darren Waller (TE – OAK): $5,900 at Texans
There’s only one game on the main slate with an over/under total north of 50 this week. The highest total on the slate is 50.5 points in Houston in Week 8, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Expect gamers to flock to this contest for stacking, so you’re unlikely to get low ownership rates for key pieces.
Watson should be quite popular this week after the Raiders were torched by Aaron Rodgers for 429 passing yards, five passing touchdowns, and one rushing touchdown in Week 7. Recency bias is a hell of a drug for daily gamers, and Watson’s a dynamic high-ceiling option, anyway. Don’t dismiss last week’s horrific showing by the Raiders as just a one-week blip, though. Oakland’s coughed up the third-most DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks this year, and FO ranks them 30th in pass defense DVOA. Watson’s gonna eat, and he’s worth spending up on and eating some chalk.
The most popular stack partner for him will be his super-stud No. 1 receiver, DeAndre Hopkins. Nuk is the priciest receiver on the slate at $8,100, and he’s a strong stack partner. Having said that, I’m a big fan of pivoting to Stills.
Stills has offered versatility lining up in the slot 40.0% of the time on his snaps played this year, according to PlayerProfiler. That’s been with Will Fuller healthy, though, and Fuller’s not healthy at the moment. Stills’ speed should be utilized on the perimeter replacing Fuller while Keke Coutee gets the bulk of the snaps from the slot when Houston uses three receivers.
Fuller ranks seventh in Intended Air Yards this year with 695, leaving a big hole in the offense that Stills has the tools to admirably fill. Sports Info Solution credits Fuller with an average depth of target of 14.2 yards, and Stills isn’t far behind with an average depth of target of 13.9 yards. Oakland’s surrendered the most 20-plus yard passes (32) and is tied for the third-most 40-plus yard passes allowed this year, according to NFL.com. A Watson/Stills stack has the potential to push a team to the top of the GPP heap, and I’ll be overweight on the combo.
Oakland’s defense is embarrassing itself this year, but the same can’t be said for their offense. FO ranks the offense eighth in overall DVOA, eighth in pass offense DVOA, and 10th in rush offense DVOA. Even though they’re playing well as a whole, key cogs in the form of their rookie back, Jacobs, and breakout tight end, Waller, remain underpriced options.
Jacobs’ availability needs to be monitored after he played through a banged-up shoulder last week and is still dealing with soreness. He hasn’t practice yet, according to the team’s official website. The lack of practicing might not prevent him from playing, though. MJ Acosta of NFL Network tweeted Jacobs’ reply to being asked if he could still play versus the Texans even if he doesn’t practice this week.
I asked #Raiders RB Josh Jacobs if he feels he could still play vs #Texans even if he doesn’t practice this week, to which he quickly replied, “Yup! That’s the goal.” Jacobs went back into the game last Sunday after hurting his shoulder. @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/fA8rYg9ytP
— MJ Acosta (@MJAcostaTV) October 24, 2019
As you can see in the tweet above, he believes he can play without practicing. Supporting the notion he could be ready to go this weekend is the fact the club didn’t sign C.J. Anderson after working him out earlier in the week.
As for Jacobs’ bona fides, he’s been a beast. Pro Football Focus (PFF) has given him the highest rushing grade among all running backs this year.
Josh Jacobs is back on top as the highest graded first round pick through Week 7!
His overall grade is now up to an ELITE 90.7 after a stellar game against the Packers!
His 90.4 rushing grade also leads ALL RBs 🔥
Check out the rest of the list below!https://t.co/HbuUHgpAEG
— PFF OAK Raiders (@PFF_Raiders) October 23, 2019
He’s coming off of back-to-back games of besting 120 rushing yards while running his streak to three in a row of catching multiple passes. Jacobs has reached triple-digit yards from scrimmage in four of six games and fallen a single yard short of doing so with 99 rushing yards and no receiving production in Week 2.
Give me a bell-cow back in the week’s highest projected scoring game at under $6,000. He should be super chalky if he’s active, but perhaps there’s an opportunity his ownership won’t be quite as high immediately on the heels of David Johnson burning gamers despite being active last week.
Waller’s the other key cog on the Raiders’ offense. His 50 targets are nearly double the second-highest total on the team belonging to Hunter Renfrow with 26. He also leads the way in receptions (44) and receiving yards (485), and those totals dwarf the second-highest totals on the Raiders of 17 receptions and 216 receiving yards belonging to Tyrell Williams. Adding further context to Waller’s heavy usage in Oakland’s offense, his 27.2% target share is the eighth-highest mark this year.
Don’t expect either of these teams to be stuck settling for field goals when they reach scoring territory. Both defenses are struggling mightily in that part of the field. Checking back in on Lineups’ team rankings page reveals the Raiders rank 31st and the Texans rank 30th in red-zone touchdown percentage, making them better than only the hapless Dolphins at keeping teams out of the end zone when they get in the red zone. Don’t be shy about stacking this game, and this quartet is my favorite collection of pieces from that contest.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
