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FanDuel Market Watch: Week 7 (2019)

Oct 15, 2019

Daniel Jones has a favorable matchup this week against the Cardinals.

Here are the players that have seen the largest value fluctuation from last week to this week’s FanDuel main slate. Depending on the situation, we may be able to exploit this information and take advantage of the fact that the player’s salary increased or decreased significantly from last week.

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Daniel Jones (NYG): $7,200 vs. ARI (+$700)
“Danny Dimes” gets his turn with this Cardinals team that runs a lot of plays and has allowed the most touchdowns (16) to opposing QBs. They are the only team without an interception. Arizona is allowing 24.5 FDFP to the position, which is third-worst just barely behind Miami (25.0) and Atlanta (24.9). This is a great match up for Jones, however, there is some question about the availability of his weapons. Saquon Barkley, Wayne Gallman, Evan Engram, and Sterling Shepard are all players to watch from an injury standpoint. He has struggled the last two weeks against tough defenses averaging 9.5 FDFP against New England and Minnesota. Still, he is viable this week but there are probably better options unless most of his weapons are available.

Philip Rivers (LAC): $7,600 @ TEN (-$700)
He struggled in the Sunday night game (16.8 FDFP) after only scoring 6.1 FDFP in week five against Denver. The Chargers have yet to figure out what to do on offense since Melvin Gordon came back. Tennessee has too good of a defense to bet on Rivers (or more importantly, the Chargers) this week when you can pay $300 more for Matt Ryan or $100 more for Kyler Murray. You can also go down $300 and get Kirk Cousins. There is too much uncertainty right now with Rivers (and the Chargers offense), but I don’t hate the play if you feel strongly that they will right the ship this week because this offense does have all the pieces on paper to be an elite offense.

Running Backs

Malcolm Brown (LAR): $6,100 @ ATL (+$1,300)
Brown was one of the highest owned players across all contests last week at his near minimum price after Todd Gurley was ruled out. FanDuel naturally reacted and raised his price significantly. The price increase was probably too much as he only carried the ball 11 times for a measly 40 yards and had no catches out of the backfield. He has never been much of a pass catcher (even in college) so it doesn’t look like he is likely to exploit the Falcons weakness. He only played 68% of the snaps last week. If you think that he will fall into the end zone a couple of times this week then he is still a value as he is the Rams’ favorite around the goal line. Otherwise, pass on him even at this discounted price.

Raheem Mostert (SF): $5,000 @ WAS (-$700)
Tevin Coleman is back, and Matt Breida is still around, which limits Mostert’s opportunities. He has combined for only 11 carries the last two weeks (with no targets). Washington has only given up one 100-yard rusher all season (Ezekiel Elliott in Week 2). Mostert is not an option this week unless you are related to him or want to really gamble that the 49ers get a huge lead and then want to give him some extra playing time in the second half. No thanks.

Wide Receivers

Golden Tate (NYG): $6,100 vs. ARI (+1,100)
He was essentially the only top-tier skill player that suited up for the Giants last week and performed well catching six of his nine targets for 102 yards and a touchdown against the Patriots. There are still questions surrounding the availability of his teammates this week against Arizona. You will want to monitor this news closely because this is a great match up and situation for the Giants offensive pieces. Much is made of the Cardinal’s weak defense against TEs but they are suspect in the soft spots and underneath, which is where Tate operates. If only one (or none) of Shepard, Engram, or Barkley play then Tate is a must-play. If two (or three) of those weapons play, then you’ll have a tough decision to make. He should get open underneath and is still one of the best in the business at gaining yards after the catch. Even with the huge salary increase, his price is fair as he was vastly underpriced (min. salary) in Week 5 when he first suited up after his suspension. There are some value options slightly below (Larry Fitzgerald, Tyler Boyd, Calvin Ridley) and above (Terry McLaurin, Tyler Lockett, Will Fuller) him this week so it will come down to which WR you prefer.

Tyler Boyd (CIN): $5,600 vs. JAC (-$800)
Fortunately, I switched Boyd out of my main lineup before lock in favor of Terry McLaurin once news broke about the Dolphins’ Xavien Howard not playing. The Bengals offense is struggling right now but Boyd’s price is just too low for his talent and role. The Jaguar’s defense is good, and the Bengal’s offense is unreliable so I will proceed with caution, though. Boyd only caught three passes for 10 yards, but he was targeted seven times. He has seen double-digit targets in four of his six games and scored 10+ fantasy points in three of his six games. In fact, he is third in the league with 9.8 targets per game. That is what will keep Boyd in my player pool this week at this discounted price.

Tight Ends

Rhett Ellison (NYG): $4,800 vs. ARI (+$800)
Ellison got a significant bump because of the uncertainty with Evan Engram returning from his MCL injury and the fact that the Giants play every tight end’s favorite defense in the Arizona Cardinals. If Engram is out, then I hit the lock button on Ellison after he got seven targets last week against the Patriots. He didn’t do much with those targets (3-30-0) but the fact that he got them is encouraging. The Cardinals allow 20.8 FDFP to the TE position, which is a full six points more than the second-worst team (Tampa Bay). They have allowed an average stat line that basically reads 7-100-1 through six games. If Engram can play, then you probably wouldn’t click on Ellison’s name. Engram would become interesting, though FanDuel boosted his salary to $6,800 (up $700) this week in anticipation of his return combined with the perfect match up. Engram’s 13.3 FDFP average is second only to Austin Hooper’s 13.5 (who had a 8-117-1 stat line last week against Arizona).

Hayden Hurst (BAL): $4,100 @ SEA (-$300)
He has the talent and has been given the snaps but just hasn’t seen the targets that you’d expect. Even at this ridiculously low price, you aren’t going to play him this week. His stat line is only 13-131-1 after six games.

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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.

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