Here are the players that have seen the largest value fluctuation from last week to this week’s FanDuel main slate. Depending on the situation, we may be able to exploit this information and take advantage of the fact that the player’s salary increased or decreased significantly from last week.
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Quarterbacks
Derek Carr (OAK): $7,300 vs. DET (+$400)
Sunday was the first time all year that he has thrown three touchdowns in a game. He still has yet to eclipse the 300-yard passing mark. Sunday was also the first time that he earned double-figure fantasy points (23.4 FDFP). I might have considered him if his price had stayed the same, but I am not sure that I trust him to pay off this salary even at $7,300. If you absolutely have to save salary and pay down, then he is someone you could consider as the Lions have allowed five of the seven quarterbacks they’ve faced to throw for 290+ yards.
Aaron Rodgers (GB): $8,100 @ LAC (-$300)
He had the third-best fantasy day for a quarterback this week and his price went down. That is good for us. He is still priced as the third-most expensive quarterback on the slate, but it is nice to get a discount double-check on him if he is the quarterback you want to play. After games of 27.1 and 43.7 the last two weeks, respectively, he remains a good play against the Chargers this week. It is hard to know exactly how this game will play out as the Chargers have been a weird team this year. They held Matt Stafford under 300 yards, but allowed Ryan Tannehill to reach that plateau. I am going to bet on Rodgers, especially with the running backs getting involved so much in the passing game. The decision I will have is whether I want Rodgers or pay $200 less for Stafford.
Running Backs
David Montgomery (CHI): $6,600 @ PHI (+$900)
He scored 22.7 FDFP last week after gaining 135 yards and scoring a touchdown on 27 carries. This was the breakout game that many Bears (and DFS) fans have been waiting for. He also caught four of the five balls thrown his way though he only gained 12 yards on those receptions. He is only the 11th-most expensive running back on the main slate. This is a tough matchup for the rookie as the Eagles are stingy against the run, having given up the fifth-fewest rushing touchdowns and sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. If you think this game stays close (or that the Bears win), then Montgomery is a good option. There is risk with him despite his big game last week. Only once prior to last week had he scored double-digit fantasy points (12.8 versus Denver in Week 2).
J.D. McKissic (DET): $5,000 @ OAK (-$400)
I have saved money fading the Lions’ running game all year and will continue to do so. McKissic split snaps with Ty Johnson last week. No price would make me play either of them until they prove themselves. The Lions want to pass the ball now. McKissic is a non-factor in the run game and doesn’t catch enough balls to make him relevant with FanDuel’s half-PPR scoring.
Wide Receivers
Kenny Golladay (DET): $7,600 @ OAK (+$900)
He is talented and he is the top receiving weapon in Detroit. With the exception of the Week 7 game against the Vikings, he has seen at least eight targets in every game. He has not produced quite to the level we’d be hoping for as he has only exceeded 20+ fantasy points one time. Oakland has allowed an opposing top wide receiver to have big games in five of their seven games this year. DeAndre Hopkins, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allen Robinson, Demarcus Robinson, and Courtland Sutton have each gained at least 100 yards or scored multiple touchdowns. Detroit is going to rely on the passing game even more with Kerryon Johnson out. I like Golladay’s talent, role, and matchup this week.
Olabisi Johnson (MIN): $5,000 @ KC (-$1,100)
He was priced up too much last week after Adam Thielen’s injury, so his price adjusted to where it should be. This is a fair price for him. If Adam Thielen is out again, then he makes a great value play if you are looking to save salary. He was only targeted twice last week against Washington, but that was an ugly slow-paced game. He might not get eight targets this week as he did in the Detroit game where Thielen got hurt, but there will be more plays and opportunity for a number two receiver this week against the Chiefs. If Thielen is playing, then pass on Johnson. We’ve seen that the Vikings’ target share is extremely condensed with Diggs and Thielen.
Tight Ends
Ryan Griffin (NYJ): $5,000 @ MIA (+$1,000)
He was the highest-scoring tight end last week with 24.6 FDFP. He caught four balls for 66 yards and two scores. The reality is that four of his teammates were targeted more in this game and Chris Herndon may be returning this week. Traditionally Miami has been really bad against the position, but they have been one of the better defenses this year against tight ends, statistically speaking. However, he has only faced one “real” tight end all year and they allowed Mark Andrews to go for an 8-108-1 stat line in Week 1. To be fair, though, Ryan Griffin isn’t in Mark Andrews’ league. He is entirely a punt play where you are point chasing and hoping for a repeat performance.
Zach Ertz (PHI): $6,000 vs. CHI (-$300)
He has really struggled the last three weeks as he has only caught eight passes for 112 yards and no touchdowns. This has equated to a 4.4 fantasy-point average. The matchup doesn’t get any easier this week as the Bears have yet to allow an opposing tight end to reach 50 receiving yards. In total, Chicago has only given up two touchdowns to the position. His price is tempting, especially with weak options at the position this week. As we saw last week with Ryan Griffin, Darren Fells, and Jonnu Smith leading the scoring, the position has a lot of variance. There is merit to paying way down, but you still have to pick the right tight end to punt. Even knowing the risk that he hasn’t been producing, I will be playing Ertz and betting on talent at this discounted price.
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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.
