FanDuel NFL Lineup Advice: Week 5 (Full Slate)
Week 5 is just around the corner, and there are plenty of interesting matchups on this slate. This article covers the full NFL slate on FanDuel for Week 5, starting with LAR @ SEA on Thursday and going through CLE @ SF on Monday night. There are lots of diverse strategies to be employed in both GPP and cash games, so let’s get to it.
Jameis Winston (TB): $7,600 @ NO
Winston is coming off a huge week in Tampa Bay’s upset win over the Rams and rolls into an even better matchup against New Orleans. The Saints have allowed the second-most FanDuel points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season along with the eighth-most passing yards in the league. They have been especially vulnerable to the deep ball, allowing a catch rate nearly double the league average on passes between 25-40 yards downfield.
With a 47.0 O/U we know there will a decent amount of scoring in this game, and it won’t be on the ground for Tampa Bay, as New Orleans boasts a stout run defense. Getting Sheldon Rankins back last week was huge for them, and the Saints held Ezekiel Elliott to 1.9 YPC last week. If Zeke can only manage 1.9 YPC, one can only imagine how Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber will fare. All of Tampa Bay’s scoring will be done through the air, and there should be plenty of production coming Winston’s way.
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): $8,800 vs. GB
Zeke may have been bottled up last week, but things soften up considerably for him against Green Bay. The Packers have been torched on the ground this season, allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs along with 5.0 YPC against, which is fourth highest in the league. Outside of nose tackle Kenny Clark, this team has little in the way of impactful run stoppers.
On the flipside, Green Bay has been stellar against the pass, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points and fourth-fewest passing yards in 2019. The recipe to beat Green Bay is simple — attack them where they’re soft and keep the ball away from Aaron Rodgers. To accomplish both, they’ll ride their stud running back all game, which should result in big points for Elliott.
Dalvin Cook (MIN): $8,200 @ NYG
Unless FanDuel starts raising Cook’s price to be around the tippy-top tier, I’m going to keep using him week-in and week-out. Sure, the Bears bottled him up by holding him to 2.5 yards per carry, but Cook still managed 70 total yards and a touchdown on 20 touches in a down game. He’s had at least 20 touches in every game thus far and should be in line for a huge workload in a Week 5 matchup with the Giants. Minnesota is a -5.5 road favorite in this one, and while the Giants’ defense has been more susceptible to the pass this season, the Vikings’ offensive strategy lives and dies by the run. Cook should rack up monster volume and production with a favorable game script this week.
Mike Evans (TB): $7,700 @ NO
It may be hard for some to go back to Evans after a huge week from Chris Godwin, but that’s exactly why I’m using Evans in a juicy matchup with the Saints. Evans will likely be less owned than Godwin in GPP and cash games and has out-targeted Godwin this season despite Godwin’s big game last week. Evans also has a whopping 16.6-yard aDOT (average depth of target), compared to 11.1 yards for Godwin.
As previously mentioned in this article, the Saints’ defense has struggled against deep passes, making Evans the better fit to take advantage of this secondary. In total, the Saints has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season along with the fourth-most receiving yards. Evans should allow us to get an underowned stud in a good matchup while leapfrogging those who go after Godwin.
Courtland Sutton (DEN): $5,700 @ LAC
Sutton has had surprisingly good chemistry with Joe Flacco and things finally paid off for him last week as Sutton hauled in a pair of touchdowns against Jacksonville. Normally, I’d avoid a player coming off a two-touchdown game, but with Emmanuel Sanders (quad) banged up and Sutton’s price in the basement at $5.7K, Sutton is hard to ignore. Even if Sanders plays this week, he’ll undoubtedly be hobbled, leaving Sutton to handle the load through the air for Denver. The Chargers have been middle of the road against receivers this season, allowing the 14th-most points per game to opponents thus far. Still, Sutton provides nice value at this price tag and his prospects would skyrocket if Emmanuel Sanders was ruled out for this one.
Josh Gordon (NE): $6,200 @ WAS
Washington has been terrible in practically every aspect of the game, but their secondary has been especially bad this season. They’ve allowed the second-most points per game to opposing receivers and have already allowed 10 passing touchdowns through four games. Both Gordon and Julian Edelman ($6,500) are in play on this slate, but Gordon checks in slightly cheaper and provides better big-play potential, as he has a higher aDOT and more air yards than Edelman this season. Gordon has seen a higher per-game volume of red zone targets than Edelman if we subtract Week 2 when the Patriots had Antonio Brown siphoning work from Gordon. Gordon gives us lots of upside at a cheap price in a great matchup.
Also Consider: Tyler Boyd (CIN): $6,700 vs. ARI, Julian Edelman (NE): $6,500 @ WAS
Tyler Eifert (CIN): $4,600 vs. ARI
Sometimes, it’s worth fading the chalk. Other times, it’s okay to use the obvious picks in GPP play, such as a $4,600 tight end in the best matchup for his position. It’s no secret that Arizona’s been horrific against tight ends this season, allowing 23.8 FanDuel points per game to opposing tight ends this season, eight points more than the next highest team.
Eifert has gotten five targets in all but one game this season and has gotten at least one red-zone target in each of the Bengals’ last three games. A tight end this cheap against Arizona is too good to pass up, even if he goes 35% owned in GPP games. It’s okay to use a little chalk if we get enough differentiation at other spots and tight end is the position I’m most willing to use chalk at since they are so volatile by nature.
David Johnson (ARI): $6,800 @ CIN
This ARI @ CIN game has lots of fantasy potential between two bad teams and David Johnson is the best offensive player on both sides of the ball. The Bengals have really struggled against the run this season, allowing the most FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs this season. They’ve been vulnerable to running backs on the ground, allowing 4.5 YPC this season, but have also allowed the most receiving yards and are tied for the most receiving touchdowns to opposing running backs. The Cardinals have been leaning on Johnson through their passing game, as he’s had 20 targets over his last two games. Johnson’s season-long upside is capped because of the team he’s on, but this week we could see vintage RB1 David Johnson in a juicy matchup.
Buffalo Bills: $4,300 @ TEN
Forgive me, but I’m not buying the Titans’ offensive performance against Atlanta’s swiss cheese defense. BUF @ TEN has by far the lowest total this week at 38.5 and Tennessee is just a three-point favorite at home. While many will flock to Tennessee ($4,800), especially if Josh Allen misses this game, Buffalo is in a decent spot as well and offers us $500 in savings. The Titans have allowed 17 sacks this season, which is the fourth most in the NFL. This should be a close, low-scoring matchup and Buffalo lets us get a piece of it for cheap against a weak offense.