Geoff Lambert looks at value plays for Week 6.
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Wow, last week may have been the highest-scoring weekend I’ve ever seen since I started playing DFS in 2015. My cash lineup was 204 and I was barely in the green. Here are some of my top values for this week…
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Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins (MIN): $7,000 vs. PHI
Cousins finally looked like a quarterback getting paid $84-million over three-years…okay, maybe not quite, but he looked better in Week 5 than he has all season. This week he gets a team ranked as the No. 1 defense against the run (NFL.com) but are sixth-worst versus the pass giving up 271.2 passing yards per game. The Eagles will slow down the Vikings run game with Dalvin Cook and force Cousins to throw it more.
Running Backs
Malcolm Brown (LAC): $4,800 vs. SF
This one is purely dependent on Todd Gurley‘s status at game time. Unfortunately, the Rams play in the late window and we may not have an official word on his status, making Brown a risky play. The 49ers are a tough team versus the run, ranking fifth DVOA (per FootballOutsiders.com), but at $4,800, Brown is the cheapest viable running back on the slate should Gurley miss.
Adrian Peterson (WAS): $5,300 @ MIA
If you’re not willing to take the risk playing Brown, for $500 more you can get Adrian Peterson going up against this terrible Dolphins defense. With intern head coach Bill Callahan promising to run the ball more, Peterson may finally get the volume he has been begging for. The Dolphins are 31st DVOA versus the run and give up nearly five yards per carry on the season.
Wide Receivers
Robby Anderson (NYJ): $5,300 vs. DAL
Quarterback Sam Darnold is expected to play this week, and that’s good news for Mr. Anderson. Anderson is a big-play threat but he needs a quarterback that can get him the ball, something fill-in quarterback Luke Falk was unable to do. During the second half 0f 2018, with Sam Darnold as his quarterback, Anderson only had one game with fewer than seven targets, including three games in the double-digits. Anderson is still priced as if Falk was still the quarterback and that makes him an excellent GPP value with a ton of upside.
Dede Westbrook (MIA): $5,400 vs. NO
If you asked the average NFL fan who leads the Jaguars in targets on the season, most of them would say D.J. Chark — and they would be right..sorta. Westbrook and Chark are actually tied with 37 targets each. Chark gets noticed more because he has the five TDs and the bigger plays down the field. However, this week Chark is likely to draw a shadow from Saints lockdown cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who is fresh off completely blanking Mike Evans of the Tampa Bay Bucs. Westbrook breaks out this week and has at least one touchdown. Book it.
Tight End
None
There aren’t a ton of value options at tight end this week and none that warrant a full write-up, however, there are three that are interesting that I will list here;
- Dallas Goedert (PHI) $4,500 – Vikings struggle to defend the tight end
- Tyler Higbee (LAR) $4,500 – has received five or more targets in two of his four games
- Noah Fant (DEN) $4,500 – Titans 27th DVOA versus the tight end this season
Defense
49ers $3,500 @ LAR
I don’t understand this pricing. The 49ers have been one of the best defenses in the league this season, and while I understand the Rams have a good offense, this price is too low. The 49ers are the same price as the Cardinals, who play the Falcons, and $200 cheaper than the Dolphins! Rams give up sacks and Jared Goff isn’t great when under pressure, this play is an easy one for me.
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