FanDuel NFL Value Plays: Week 7 (2019)
Geoff Lambert looks at value plays for Week 7.
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It’s slim pickens this week in the value department, but I was able to dig deep and find some good value choices for Week 7. Good luck this week.
Gardner Minshew (JAC): $5,400 @ CIN
Minshew was pretty chalky last week and he burned a lot of people with his terrible fantasy showing. Luckily for him, he gets a Bengals team ranked 31st DVOA versus the pass. A Minshew/D.J. Chark stack could go under-owned in tournaments and Minshew is cash game worthy, allowing you to pay up elsewhere.
Latavius Murray (NO): $5,100 @ CHI
Murray is a little more expensive than I expected. DraftKings must have anticipated the possibility that Alvin Kamara would be out, which it looks like he will be. If Kamara does indeed miss this game, Murray is a good candidate to fall into the end zone a few times despite the tough matchup, I wouldn’t expect a ton of yards from him.
Wendell Smallwood (WAS): $3,500 vs. SF
It looks like Chris Thompson is going miss this game and Smallwood should assume his role on Sunday. The Redskins aren’t going to be able to run the ball on the 49ers’ front seven with Adrian Peterson, meaning they could look at using a short screen game to keep the defensive line honest and keep pressure off Case Keenum. The Redskins are also likely to be playing from behind and will have to pass more. My only worry is with Smallwood’s blitz pickup, something he has struggled with in the past. If he misses a few blocks and gets his quarterback killed, they may be hesitant to keep putting him out there.
Dante Pettis (SF): $4,100 @ WAS
Pettis led all 49ers wide receivers in targets last week, but more importantly, had two near touchdowns. He had a catch and run where he was tackled at the one-yard line and had another target in the back of the end zone where his foot came down slightly out of bounds. There are a few other things working in his favor as his teammate, Deebo Samuel, may miss this game with an injury, giving Pettis more snaps. It also doesn’t hurt that the Redskins are ranked 24th DVOA versus the pass.
Zay Jones (OAK): $3,100 @ GB
This is a product of “the ball has to go to someone.” Tyrell Williams is likely to miss this game and Jones should step into a featured role despite not being with the team very long. The Packers’ pass defense is good, but they are beatable. Kenny Golladay lit them up last week, and Jones, despite his lack of NFL success, profiles as a similar wide receiver in terms of measurables. His $3,100 price tag allows you a ton of flexibility in your lineups.
Dawson Knox (BUF): $3,300 vs. MIA
Be sure to check the status of Tyler Kroft as that could make this pick less appealing. The Dolphins are 31st in DVOA versus the tight end position and Knox should have his way on Sunday. I’ve watched some film on Knox and he has been running a ton of routes on Josh Allen dropbacks and it’s only a matter of time before he has a monster game — maybe that will happen Sunday.
Lions $2,300 vs. MIN
Value defenses are tough this week as there aren’t a ton of options I like. With that said, the Lions are an interesting option. They have played well this season against some of the league’s top offenses, including the Chiefs, Packers, and Eagles. Their lowest fantasy point total this season was five, which came when they played the Chiefs’ potent offense. If they give you five at $2,300, that’s already two-times value and they have double-digit upside.