Geoff Lambert looks at value plays for Week 8.
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It’s Week 8 already? Hard to believe the season is at its halfway point! Let’s make the second half count starting with this weekend’s values for FanDuel.
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Quarterback
Drew Brees (NO): $7,200 vs. ARI
It’s sounding more and more like Brees will suit up on Sunday, and if he does, his matchup couldn’t be better. The Cardinals are 26th in DVOA versus the pass, and as one of the faster-paced offensive teams, this should lead to more possessions for the Saints. Brees is not at $7,200 quarterback, but FanDuel didn’t expect Brees to be ready to play this week and didn’t have time to adjust his price. Take advantage.
Running Back
David Montgomery (CHI): $5,700 vs. LAC
Montgomery has largely been a disappointment in fantasy thus far this season, with it all coming to a head last week when he had only two rushing attempts for six yards. Terrible.
There is, however, some room for optimism. First, head coach Matt Nagy has had to answer questions all week as to why he didn’t run the ball more. He won’t make that mistake again. Next, the Chargers are ranked 24th in DVOA versus the run, by far the worst-ranked run defense he has faced over his last five games.
Ty Johnson (DET): $5,200 vs. NYG
Johnson will likely be the chalk this week with the midweek news of Kerryon Johnson going on IR. After Kerryon went down last week, it was Ty that inherited most of the snaps at the running back position. The Giants, believe it or not, are actually decent defending the run, but at $5,200 and with very little competition for touches, Ty Johnson could be the best dollar-for-dollar play on the slate.
Wide Receiver
Mohamed Sanu (NE): $5,100 vs. CLE
There is still some debate on whether Sanu will suit up this weekend, but I’m going to assume that he does. His price still reflects his WR3 status with the Atlanta Falcons, but now finds himself potentially the No. 2 wide receiver in a plus matchup with the Browns. We saw what the Patriots did when Antonio Brown made his first start — they targetted him relentlessly. I’m not trying to compare Sanu to Brown, but I can see the Patriots looking to break in their new toy early and often. The news of Josh Gordon going on IR only helps his cause.
Kenny Stills (HOU): $5,700 vs. OAK
Kenny Stills is coming off a five-target, four-reception game that saw him go for over 100 yards, and most of that came without Will Fuller off the field. Fuller only played three snaps before getting hurt, lending Stills to play 94 percent of the snaps in Fuller’s absence. The Raiders are 30th in DVOA versus the pass but have a stout run defense, which will force the Texans to air it out more than they already do.
Tight End
Jacob Hollister (SEA): $4,800 @ ATL
You might be looking at that name and thinking, “why?” Hear me out. First, only the Dolphins have a worse DVOA versus the pass than the Falcons. Second, he out-snapped tight end Luke Willson last week — albeit only slightly. And finally, on a day that saw Russell Wilson struggle mightily, Hollister was targetted six times, third behind only Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. We saw what Wilson likes to do with his tight ends and that is targeting them in the red zone. Hollister would only need one touchdown to pay off his paltry $4,800 salary.
Defense
Carolina Panthers: $3,500 @ SF
The Panthers are No. 2 this season in Adjusted Sack Rate (ADJ), which measures a team’s “sack potential.” Ironically the No. 1 team in ADJ is the 49ers from this same game. The 49ers are still without their starting left and right tackles, which could lead to more pressure on Jimmy Garoppolo, leading to sacks and turnovers. The 49ers’ offense is not going to put up a ton of points, and if the Panthers can get a few sacks and one-or-two turnovers, they will easily pay off their salary.
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