Welcome back for another iteration of Next Gen Stats! With four weeks in the books, there’s enough sample size on certain statistics to draw some very significant and interesting conclusions. Dig in below to get a sense of what the Next Gen Stats say about players on your roster or waiver wire.
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Running Backs
35 – The number of touches by Ronald Jones over the last two weeks. Moreover, Jones totaled 36 snaps in Week 4 compared to Peyton Barber’s 19. With the balance of power in the Tampa backfield trending towards Jones, this is likely your last chance to submit waiver claims on the currently ~40% owned back. Jones is averaging an impressive 4.7 YPC on the year and could profile as a strong RB2 going forward. The main drag on Jones’ value has been Tampa’s reluctance to use him in the passing game, with a mere three targets on the season. However, Jones has caught 10 of his 12 career targets for an impressive 10.4 YPR, indicating that Tampa might be wise to start throwing him the ball more.
0.29 – The ratio of avoided tackles to rushing attempts for Josh Jacobs, the second-highest total in the league among RBs with at least 50 carries. Jacobs’ elusiveness has helped result in 307 rushing yards and a 5.0 YPC on the season. Moreover, Pro Football Focus’ 83.3 rushing grade for Jacobs underscores that he’s been an elite runner thus far. Unfortunately, like the aforementioned Jones, Jacobs doesn’t participate much in the passing game, with only five targets to his name this season. If Oakland begins to look his way more on passing routes then Jacobs has RB1 potential.
Wide Receivers
60% – The percentage of Carolina’s air yards directed towards Curtis Samuel on Sunday. Samuel had a pedestrian outing from a fantasy perspective with three catches on seven targets for 32 yards. But his 152 air yards should give owners confidence that Week 4’s moribund stat line was an aberration. Moreover, Samuel seems to be establishing a solid rapport with QB Kyle Allen, who was just named Week 5’s starter against the Jaguars. Despite the presence of Pro Bowl CB Jalen Ramsey, Jacksonville’s pass defense has graded in the middle of the pack to start the season. Run Samuel out there in the flex spot with confidence.
10.9 – AJ Brown’s average yards after reception this season, second in the league behind Mecole Hardman. Previous iterations of this article lauded Brown for his impressive measurables that give him game-breaker potential. After a quiet Week 3, Brown exploded in Week 4, turning a mere three targets into 94 yards and two TDs. Included in those was a 15-yard catch that Brown creatively turned into a 55-yard touchdown. While Brown is still struggling to seize a full-time role (45% snap share on the year), it’s only a matter of time before he becomes a featured performer in the Tennessee offense.
Tight Ends
86% – Atlanta tight end Austin Hooper’s catch rate in 2019, the second-highest in the NFL. While much has been made of the breakouts of Darren Waller and Mark Andrews, Hooper is arguably putting up the most impressive season to date. Waller is the league-leader in catch rate at 89%, however, his average depth of target is only 4.9 yards compared to Hooper’s 6.8, indicating greater catch difficulty for Hooper.
83% – OJ Howard’s catch rate on the year (10 receptions on 12 targets). Howard owners are likely ready to cut bait on their fifth or sixth-round pick after a depressing 131 yards through four games. But that type of move would be far too hasty. Howard’s low yardage total isn’t a result of personal ineffectiveness, just a lack of opportunity, a restraint that will ease as the season progresses. Remember that Howard had a strong rapport with Jameis Winston last season and possesses off the charts athleticism and size. He will start to earn more looks as the season moves along and parlay them into strong numbers.
Quarterbacks
+7.4% – The difference between Kyle Allen’s actual completion percentage and his expected completion percentage, fourth-highest among NFL QBs. Meanwhile, Cam Newton managed an appalling -9.3% before succumbing to injury, the second-worst in the NFL. This difference, along with Newton’s foot injury, has paved the way for Allen to take the helm again in Week 5. If Allen continues to play this well it will be difficult for Newton to re-assert himself once healthy.
25.4% – The percentage of Daniel Jones’ throws into tight coverage, which ranks second in the NFL. Jones’ aggressive nature through two games as a starter has led to some amazing, big-time throws as well as some bad interceptions. The net results have been positive thus far, with Jones owning an impressive 8.1 yards per passing attempt, while above Eli Manning’s 6.2.
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Nicholas Gerli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nicholas, check out his archive and follow him @nickgerli1.
