Next Gen Stats for Week 6 (2019 Fantasy Football)

Oct 9, 2019

Welcome back for another iteration of Next Gen Stats! With five down, our sample size keeps growing, which will help us make some accurate conclusions. Let’s see what the Next Gen Stats say about players on your roster or waiver wire.

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Running Backs

4.34. Duke Johnson’s average yards after contact per rushing attempt, the highest in the NFL. Meanwhile, batterymate Carlos Hyde rests at a lowly 2.93. Despite Duke’s elusiveness, he’s been sharing snaps at a 50/50 split with Hyde throughout the season. Moreover, Hyde’s 73 rushing attempts more than double Johnson’s 32. This is a frustrating situation for fantasy owners that invested a high draft pick in Duke on the potential of him finally earning a starting role this season. While some might be tempted to cut bait, now’s the time to exercise patience. Johnson is still getting a lot of snaps and proving very efficient when he touches the ball. More yards and even some TDs will come shortly.

1.6%. The percentage of times that Cardinals RB David Johnson faces an eight-man box on his rushing attempts, the lowest in the NFL. For perspective, Frank Gore faces such a defensive alignment on 44% of his rushes. Arizona’s air raid offense and consistent use of three to four wide receivers keep defenses in nickel and dime formations, allowing Johnson to run against soft fronts.

Wide Receiver

156.3. The passer rating of Jacksonville QBs when targeting D.J. Chark, second highest of any receiver in the league. This column has extolled the virtues of Chark several times already, but the talking points bear repeating. Chark is a physical freak, owning a 4.34 forty-yard dash that allows him to blow past defenders. His lengthy 6’3″ frame and 93rd percentile burst score help him to compete for jump balls. Elite physical tools combined with a strong rapport with QB Gardner Minshew have resulted in Chark posting the fifth-most fantasy points at the WR position thus far.

47%. Mike Evans’ catch rate on the season, the lowest total for any player with at least 30 targets. Evans’ catch rate this season looks suspiciously close to his 52% level in 2017, a year where he finished with a mediocre 1,001 yards and 5 TDs. Evans simply does not convert enough of his looks to be considered a legitimate #1 fantasy wideout, a situation underscored by the efficiency of his teammate Chris Godwin (77% catch rate).

71%. The share of Washington’s air yards directed to Terry McLaurin against New England, the highest of any receiver in Week 5. The stout Patriots pass defense, combined with the inept play of Colt McCoy, held McLaurin to only 51 yards on three catches. Nonetheless, it’s impressive to see that McLaurin remains the top target in the Redskins offense regardless of who’s under center. The 0-5 Redskins are in the midst of a deep rebuilding year and stand to trail in a lot of games. That means plenty of air yard opportunities for McLaurin going forward. Existing owners should continue playing him as a WR3/flex, while others should pounce if he’s dropped.

95th Percentile. The percentile rank of Darius Slayton’s catch radius, a metric from Player Profiler that accounts for a receiver’s speed, size, and vertical ability. Slayton, a fifth-round pick by the Giants in April, was a relative unknown until he caught four balls for 62 yards against the Vikings on Sunday. Slayton showed off his field-stretching and pass-catching ability on a beautiful 35-yard touchdown grab in the second quarter. With Sterling Shepard out for the foreseeable future with a concussion and Bennie Fowler off the team, Slayton stands to assume a large share of snaps in the coming weeks. Owners looking for a cheap fill-in option at WR should give Slayton a look.

Tight Ends

85th Percentile. Gerald Everett‘s SPARQ-x percentile score among tight ends. Everett, standing at 6’3″, 240lbs and running a 4.62-forty, has deceptive athleticism for a man his size. That athleticism allowed him to achieve a 90th percentile college dominator ranking, indicating that he was a focal point of South Alabama’s offense. After playing a part-time role in his first two seasons with Los Angeles, the 2017 second-round pick is stepping into a starting role this season with a 66% snap share (up from 35% in 2018). Given how much the Rams throw the ball Everett is a good bet to continue putting up TE1 numbers, making him a savvy waiver wire add this week.

Quarterbacks

+10.5%. The difference between Russell Wilson’s actual completion percentage, 73.1%, and his expected completion percentage, 62.5%, easily the highest among NFL QBs. Moreover, Wilson’s 126.1 QB rating bests second-place Deshaun Watson’s by over 10 points. Initially known for his running ability, Wilson has morphed into a top-five passing arm in the league. The result is a dynamic Seahawks offense that allows talents like Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf to flourish.

-18.8%. Baker Mayfield’s completion percentage in Week 5, 36.4%, minus his expected completion percentage of 55.2%. This is the second-worst single-game performance of 2019 next to Josh Rosen’s -19.6% in Week 2. Fantasy owners who have been waiting for Mayfield to turn things around should consider cutting the man with a 1:2 TD to INT ratio.

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Nicholas Gerli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nicholas, check out his archive and follow him @nickgerli1.

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2Leonard Fournette (JAC)RB
3Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)RB
4Chris Carson (SEA)RB
5Derrick Henry (TEN)RB
6David Johnson (ARI)RB
7Le'Veon Bell (NYJ)RB
8Julio Jones (ATL)WR
9Aaron Jones (GB)RB
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17Michael Thomas (NO)WR
18Sony Michel (NE)RB
19Keenan Allen (LAC)WR
20Tyler Lockett (SEA)WR
21Kerryon Johnson (DET)RB
22Devonta Freeman (ATL)RB
23Joe Mixon (CIN)RB
24Adam Thielen (MIN)WR
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26Julian Edelman (NE)WR
27Travis Kelce (KC)TE
28Tevin Coleman (SF)RB
29Robert Woods (LAR)WR
30Melvin Gordon (LAC)RB
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3Mookie Betts (BOS)CF,RF
4J.D. Martinez (BOS)LF,RF
5Trevor Story (COL)SS
6Justin Verlander (HOU)SP
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12Francisco Lindor (CLE)SS
13Gerrit Cole (HOU)SP
14Freddie Freeman (ATL)1B
15Javier Baez (CHC)2B,3B
16Charlie Blackmon (COL)CF
17Aaron Judge (NYY)RF,DH
18Juan Soto (WSH)LF
19Anthony Rendon (WSH)3B
20Bryce Harper (PHI)CF,RF
21Jose Altuve (HOU)2B
22Xander Bogaerts (BOS)SS
23Starling Marte (PIT)CF
24Walker Buehler (LAD)SP
25Manny Machado (SD)3B,SS
26Anthony Rizzo (CHC)1B
27Kris Bryant (CHC)3B,RF
28Whit Merrifield (KC)1B,2B
29George Springer (HOU)CF,RF
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16Kyrie Irving (BKN)PG,SG
17Kemba Walker (BOS)PG
18Jimmy Butler (MIA)SG,SF
19Ben Simmons (PHI)PG,SF
20Jrue Holiday (NOR)PG,SG
21Rudy Gobert (UTH)C
22Donovan Mitchell (UTH)PG,SG
23John Wall (WAS)PG
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