10 Bold Predictions for Week 11 Fantasy Football
Last year in Week 11, Tre’Quan Smith exploded for 26 fantasy points while Chris Conley finished with 23. Josh Adams outscored Christian McCaffrey and the RB1, Todd Gurley while over at tight end, both Robert Tonyan and Antonio Gates finished among the top five at the position.
The point is that while everything you are about to read may seem crazy, this is a league where crazy things happen every week. I am merely trying to forecast which scenarios are possible in advance like last week when we hyped up Daniel Jones over Russell Wilson and had O.J. Howard and Darius Slayton in the top 5 and 20 respectively for their positions.
I’ll be posting this article every Saturday, and while these are all players I feel strongly about for the week, these are not my projections by any means. Rather, a bold prediction is something that most people would say has less than 10% chance of happening, but I’ll give it two or even three times better odds. So perhaps use one of these guys in a DFS GPP or if you need help breaking a tie on a start/sit decision.
#1 Miles Sanders will finish as a top 12 running back
“Wait a second. The guy stuck behind Jordan Howard?” Yep, that’s him. “But wait, they play the Patriots.” Right. Howard has been limited at practice all week with a shoulder issue. Assuming he suits up, it is entirely possible that he leaves early (see James Conner‘s shoulder re-aggravation Thursday) or that the Eagles take it easy on his workload and involve their best back (Sanders). In regards to the Patriots defense, well, they haven’t quite been the run-stuffers over the past month that everyone makes them out to be. In that time, they’ve allowed 470 yards on 88 carries which comes to a concerning 5.34 yards per carry. The issue has been game script and with them being just a 3.5 point favorite this week, that volume may increase.
Final Prediction: 13 carries, 95 yards, 2 TDs, 4 receptions, 52 yards
#2 Calvin Ridley will go off for a top 10 wideout performance
After starting the season with six consecutive 300-yard games, Matt Ryan has slowed down. Now that he is four weeks removed from that ankle injury, we may finally see him at full strength. That would be great news for Ridley, who gets the best of the matchups this weekend. James Bradberry will be stuck on Julio Jones which leaves Donte Jackson for Ridley. Jackson is extraordinarily fast but doesn’t have the lateral agility to hang with Ridley’s crisp route running. More importantly, he is dealing with a hip injury and missed practice all week until Friday’s walkthroughs.
Final Prediction: 8 targets, 7 receptions, 122 yards, 2 TDs
#3 Tarik Cohen will end up among the top 15 backs
Like Jordan Howard above, David Montgomery is on the injury report. He sustained an ankle sprain at Thursday’s practice and may not suit up. Even if he does, it seems unlikely that he’ll see his 20+ touches we’ve grown used to seeing. The Bears will likely be playing from behind in Los Angeles which should lead to more than the 23 passes Mitch Trubisky threw in his strong Week 10 performance. Cohen may not have many carries this year, but just last year he was regularly seeing 8 to 12 per contest so we know he can handle the workload on top of all his targets in the receiving game.
Final Prediction: 11 carries, 64 yards, 6 receptions, 98 yards, 1 TD
#4 Indianapolis will be a top 3 D/ST this week
Since Nick Foles left Chip Kelly’s scheme, he has near-identical passing efficiency to Blake Bortles and yes, that includes the playoffs. Everyone remembers the Super Bowl and a few other big games sprinkled in, but more often than not, he has performed like a backup quarterback. This week will be especially challenging for him because he struggles versus zone defenses historically like the one the Colts run, plus he is coming from one of the best offensive lines in football to one of the worst. Foles has been horrific under pressure in his career which could lead the Colts D/ST to a monster week.
Final Prediction: 13 points allowed, 3 interceptions, 2 fumbles, 4 sacks, 1 TD
#5 Alexander Mattison will outscore Austin Ekeler
Ekler was superb to open the season but since then he has just 120 rushing yards in 6 games. Even more concerning is the fact that he is now seeing just 3 targets per game over the last three weeks. You might think that would change in a good matchup versus Kansas City, but the last three weeks were all strong matchups too. Then there is Mattison who is the distant number two (like Mattison) but is averaging more touches of late and is much more efficient. Not only that, but with Brandon Allen quarterbacking the Broncos, this game could get out of hand quick which would cause the Vikings to give Mattison more work than usual.
Final Prediction: Mattison (12 car, 69 yds, 1 TD), Ekeler (3 car, 5 yds, 6 rec, 40 yds)
The Other Half
#7 Kyler Murray still finishes as a top 8 QB vs the 49ers (He put up 23 fantasy pts vs SF two weeks ago on limited volume)
Final Prediction: 24/34, 277 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 8 carries, 43 yards, 1 TD
#9 Auden Tate will catch two touchdowns (Top 12 in targets since joining starting lineup + great size)
Final Prediction: 11 targets, 6 receptions, 81 yards, 2 TDs
#10 Frank Gore will rumble to 100 yards (Game script vs Miami should lead to touches)
Final Prediction: 14 carries, 102 yards
Thanks for reading and happy football season!