Analyzing Vegas Odds: Week 10 (2019)
The lone six-team bye week of the season can cause headaches for DFS owners. Every lineup option has their prices inflated due to the lower player pool number, resulting in much tougher lineup decisions. This week, we have New England, Washington, Philadelphia, Houston, Denver, and Jacksonville on bye. If that was not enough to detract from the appeal of Week 10 DFS contests, San Francisco and Seattle are off of the main slate due to their Monday night matchup. Minnesota and Dallas are likewise off the main slate due to their date on Sunday Night Football. Finally, Oakland and the Los Angeles Chargers kick off Week 10 on Thursday night. As a result, analyzing Vegas odds and attacking the contests with the highest totals of the week take on increased importance. Stacks should be heavily considered. Let’s dig in.
|Date||Favorite||Spread||Underdog||Total||Away Moneyline||Home Moneyline|
|Sunday, November 10, 2019||at Tampa Bay Buccaneers||-4.5||Arizona Cardinals||51||+180||-225|
Arizona versus Tampa Bay is a contest that Vegas has pegged to provide enough offense to be a target for strong DFS options, either individually or in a stack. A 51-point over/under makes this a contest to consider. The point spread is small enough that options from both teams can be considered at quarterback, wide receiver, and running back. The tight ends are more dicey options that we will discuss in short order.
Kyler Murray has turned it on as of late. The QB7 in total fantasy points on the season, Murray is also the in QB10 average fantasy points over the last five weeks of action. He has a fantastic matchup this week against a Buccaneers defense surrendering 310.25 yards and 2.38 touchdowns per game to the quarterback position.
Jameis Winston comes equipped with a “potential meltdown” warning label almost on a weekly basis, but has a tasty matchup this week against the Cardinals. Arizona has allowed 298.78 passing yards and 2.67 touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks this season. While Winston has been a volatile option, 10 of his 12 interceptions have come in just three games. Arizona and Tampa Bay have surrendered the first and fourth-most points to the position, respectively.
Ronald Jones has been named the new starter in Tampa Bay and instantly becomes an intriguing option against a Cardinals defense allowing 104.44 rushing yards per game at 4.41 yards per carry. Arizona has relinquished 4.67 receptions and 35.89 receiving yards to the running back position per game this season. Jones looks like a solid value across the board due to what could finally be the beginning of a steady weekly volume role.
Now that David Johnson is cleared, he is in a potential blow-up spot against the Buccaneers. Despite holding opposing running backs to an NFC leading 3.34 yards per carry, the Bucs have struggled against running backs with high broken tackle percentages. They have allowed 4.9 yards per carry when facing backs who have a broken tackle percentage over 22.5 percent.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are elite options on a weekly basis and, unfortunately, their price tags reflect that. The WR1 and WR3 on the season, respectively, are both options worth finding a way to fit into Week 10 lineups. The Cardinals have surrendered 13.67 receptions, 166.22 yards, and 1.22 touchdowns to the wide receiver position per game on the season and could allow a massive day to the Bucs’ star receivers. Mike Evans is expected to be shadowed by Patrick Peterson, but Peterson has struggled since the return from his suspension. According to Sports Info Solutions, he has allowed career highs with 10.2 yards per target and a 75-percent completion percentage.
Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk are two relatively low-cost options with great matchups this weekend. While neither receiver has been particularly consistent this season, a matchup that is tied for the highest total against a defense allowing the most fantasy points to the wide receiver position merits attention. Tampa Bay has relinquished 15.12 receptions, 197.25 yards, and 1.50 touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers.
There are 53 different wide receivers averaging 10.0 fantasy points per game or more.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have played against eight of them.
Here’s how they fared: pic.twitter.com/kZstUYZcd9
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 6, 2019
O.J. Howard (remember him?) has been a colossal bust this season. He will have a chance to right the ship against a Cardinals defense that has been a sieve to the tight end position. The Cardinals have allowed 7.11 receptions, 90 yards, and a touchdown per game to tight ends this season. A dream matchup and a Cameron Brate injury makes this “put up or shut up” time for Howard and potentially his career as a Buccaneer. The Cardinals, despite more 11 and 12 personnel groupings, are not utilizing the tight end position in the passing game consistently enough to recommend either of their tight end committee options in Charles Clay and Maxx Williams.
|Date||Favorite||Spread||Underdog||Total||Away Moneyline||Home Moneyline|
|Sunday, November 10, 2019||at New Orleans Saints||-13||Atlanta Falcons||51||+470||-670|
While the over/under for this contest tells us that it is a contest to attack in DFS, the point spread suggests that staying away from the Falcons ground game may be prudent. The +13 point spread on the Falcons projects a negative game script that should limit carries from Atlanta’s backfield. On the same token, it promises a very appealing high volume afternoon for the team’s pass catchers. Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, and Michael Thomas are worth consideration every week they are healthy. In a contest against a weak defense with the highest over/under of the week, they are worth a potential stack.
Drew Brees has a wonderful matchup this weekend against an Atlanta Falcons defense relinquishing the third-most fantasy points to enemy quarterbacks. They have allowed 263.23 passing yards and 2.38 touchdowns per contest to opposing signal-callers. Brees is a pricey, but intriguing option for Week 10.
Matt Ryan has a surprisingly low price tag this weekend despite a great matchup against the New Orleans Saints. The Falcons should be in catch-up mode for most of the contest and are facing a defense surrendering 252.25 passing yards and 1.25 touchdowns per game to the quarterback position. Both Brees and Ryan should be strongly considered for Week 10 lineups.
Devonta Freeman has a tough matchup against a Saints defense that has limited opposing running backs to just 3.78 yards per carry and 61.5 rushing yards per game. He is not a recommended option this week, even if Ito Smith is sidelined.
Alvin Kamara has a plus matchup against a Falcons defense that has surrendered an appealing 102.25 rushing yards per game on the season, but has done so at just 3.91 yards per carry. They have allowed just 3.62 receptions for 26.62 yards per game to opposing running backs. However, they were victimized by the Cardinals’ top-end receiving backs in David Johnson and Chase Edmonds for eight receptions, 101 yards, and two touchdowns. Kamara is a more explosive, superior receiving threat to Johnson or Edmonds and, as a result, could have similar success.
Michael Thomas has a great Week 10 matchup against an Atlanta Falcons defense that has allowed 13.62 receptions, 191 receiving yards, and 1.5 touchdowns per game to the wide receiver position. It is no surprise that he is priced as an elite option, but is still worth a look if you can squeeze him into your lineup budget-wise. The 51-point over/under suggests plenty of looks for Michael Thomas.
It also promises a high target volume outing for his Falcons counterpart, Julio Jones. New Orleans has allowed 12.12 receptions, 169.62 yards, and 1.12 touchdowns per game to opposing wideouts. Calvin Ridley has a plus matchup this weekend and is also worth heavy consideration. The Falcons and Saints have surrendered the third-most and ninth-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position, respectively.
Jared Cook is an interesting, fairly priced option this weekend. He displayed a better grasp of the offense prior to being sidelined by injury and is facing a Falcons defense allowing 4.38 receptions and 45.62 receiving yards to opposing tight ends.
Austin Hooper remains the TE1 on the season, but has a tough on-paper matchup against a Saints defense that has held opposing tight ends to four receptions for 50.38 yards per game. However, deeper analysis reveals that they have struggled against teams with TE1s. They allowed a 6-62-1 line to Will Dissly and a 4-50 line to Jason Witten (7-99 total to Cowboys tight ends). Due to delivering elite consistency and a safe floor at the tight end position, Hooper deserves a long hard look despite his price tag. Through nine weeks of the 2019 season, Austin Hooper still leads the Falcons in receptions.