Analyzing Vegas Odds is often a critical component of DFS success. High scoring affairs are conducive to fantasy points, and as such, we will be taking a look at the two contests with the highest over/under totals on the main slate. Analyzing over/under odds can help one in deciding between two competing DFS options and can also help with stack decisions. Utilizing Vegas odds to help in your analysis is by no means a secret sauce. It is a widespread practice one should engage in so as to not be at a competitive disadvantage. Let’s dig in.

View your league’s top available players with My Playbook

 
A contest that opened at 54.5 is always going to top the list of contests to target for those looking for increased chances of fantasy success. Patrick Mahomes is the QB5 in fantasy points per game, but has an excellent chance to finish as the QB1 for Week 13. He went off for 443 yards and four touchdowns against Oakland in Week 2. Mahomes is facing a Raiders defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position in a battle for the AFC West. He is worth an extended look despite his hefty price tag. 

Derek Carr has been a low-end QB2 this season and should be ignored despite the plus matchup. Carr threw two picks to just one touchdown against the Chiefs in Week 2 and was held under 200 yards. 

Tyrell Williams is the only wide receiver worth rostering from the Raiders. Popular dart throw Hunter Renfrow is facing an extended absence, leaving Willams as the only relevant DFS option on the roster at wide receiver. Williams is the WR39 in average fantasy points per game, but was able to find the end zone against the Chiefs in a five-reception, 46-yard outing in Week 2. He is worth a dart throw due to a perceived plus matchup.

Tyreek Hill is one of the elite options of the week against a Raiders defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts. Hill missed Week 2’s contest, but looks to be in an explosion spot this weekend. Much better at home this season, Hill has averaged 98.7 receiving yards per game at Arrowhead Stadium. 

Sammy Watkins has been a massive disappointment since what we all thought was a breakout performance in Week 1 and is better left for someone else’s lineup due to his replacement level floor. Mecole Hardman is the better option if you are willing to gamble on a high-risk, high-reward option. He has a replacement-level floor, but has managed to find the end zone in three of his last four contests.

The Kansas City Chiefs’ backfield is a mess and should be avoided outside of multiple lineup plays. Josh Jacobs is a very intriguing play against a Chiefs defense allowing 5.05 yards per carry on the season. With that being said, he saw just 39 percent of the team’s Week 12 carries en route to one of his two worst fantasy outings of the season. An RB1 on the season, he is a prime bounce-back candidate, but game flow may cause Gruden to frustrate Jacobs’ owners again with a heavy dose of Jalen Richard. Jacobs had 99 rushing yards on just 12 carries against the Chiefs in Week 2.

At tight end, we have two highly intriguing options in Travis Kelce and Darren Waller. Kelce is the TE2 in average fantasy points per game. Waller is the TE8. Kelce is facing a Raiders defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position. With seven receptions for 107 yards and a touchdown, he had his best fantasy game of the season against Oakland in Week 2. He is the TE1 in overall fantasy points, but has been a relative disappointment after taking a step back from his 2018 numbers. With that being said, he is still worth plugging into your lineup if you can find bargains elsewhere. 

Waller has found the end zone in just two contests this season, making him more of a DraftKings asset than a Yahoo or FanDuel one. Waller, as mentioned, is the TE8 on the season despite being third in both yardage and receptions. While Waller is worth a look if his six receptions for 63-yard line from Week 2 interests you, he has a lower floor than most should feel comfortable with at his relative price tag. Waller has averaged just three receptions per game over his last five contests, but may see an uptick in both targets and receptions with Hunter Renfrow potentially lost for the season.

 
At quarterback, Jameis Winston is always worth a look. He is a turnover machine, but more often than not makes up for it with both yardage and touchdowns. Winston is the QB9 in fantasy points per game and has a plus matchup against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense allowing the 13th most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. The Buccaneers have seen their contests go over the posted total in eight of their last nine contests, with the other being a push. 

Nick Foles has surprisingly been the QB11 since his return to the lineup, but with 6.3 and 5.7 yards per attempt in his last two games, the on-field product has been poor. He faces a Tampa Bay defense surrendering the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, but is in danger of being benched mid-game if this contest gets out of hand.

At wide receiver, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are always worth strong consideration when they appear on the main slate. Godwin has been the No. 1 fantasy receiver over the past two contests and has retaken the WR2 spot on the season from Mike Evans, who is now the WR3. D.J. Chark is the WR4 on the season and is going to be a chalky play this week against a Buccaneers defense relinquishing the most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. All three of these receivers have tantalizing upside for Week 13. Chris Conley appears to be a solid dart throw play after seeing 18 percent of Nick Foles’ targets since his return. He has tremendous matchup working for him and is not likely to be much of a contrarian play as a result. 

At running back, Leonard Fournette is the only player truly worthy of consideration out of this contest. He is priced like an elite play despite facing a tough Buccaneers defense allowing just 3.29 yards per carry to the running back position. Fournette has hauled in an eye-popping 16 of his 19 targets over the last two weeks and saw 24 Week 12 carries after coach Doug Marrone recommitted to the run game following Fournette’s eight-carry Week 11 effort. Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber have a plus matchup against a Jaguars defense relinquishing a league-high 5.62 yards per carry to the running back position, but they are nothing more than multiple entry dart plays.

Tight end has been a wasteland in Jacksonville with injuries shortening the seasons of the top three tight ends on their depth chart. Tampa Bay has been much of the same with O.J. Howard, the TE37 on the season, and Cameron Brate, the TE31. The tight end position is safe to ignore for this contest.

View your league’s top available players with My Playbook

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Google Play | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | RSS

Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his profile and follow him @FantasyContext.