Anthony Miller: Priority Waiver Wire Pickup for Week 13

Each week we have been taking a deeper look at some of the top priority waiver adds of the week here to give you a better idea of the players you are buying. This week, one player we will be looking at in Chicago Bears second-year wideout Anthony Miller who has come to life over the last two weeks. The Bears passing offense has been in a pretty sad state most of the season with anyone not named Allen Robinson having a hard time standing out, but with 12 catches on 20 targets over the last two games, Miller has made his presence felt.

So, let’s take a look at who Anthony Miller is as a player, dive into the state of the Bears offense, and determine what kind of outlook we can potentially expect from Miller going forward.

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Player Profile

Anthony Miller was a second-round draft pick in 2018 after playing his college ball at Memphis. He lit up the NCAAF with incredibly consistent production in his last two seasons with receiving lines of 95-1,434-14 as a junior and 96-1,462-18 as a senior. He was a consensus All-American as a senior and his 18 TD receptions were the most in the nation while his 1,462 receiving yards ranked third-most. He holds Memphis’ all-time school records with 238 receptions, 3,590 receiving yards, and 37 TDs.

Miller came into the NFL Draft having not done many drills at the combine due to him recovering from a foot fracture at the time, but we still had plenty of evidence from his college play that he was expected to go in the second round. Our own Mike Tagliere actually covered him well as a prospect and you can see his scouting profile.

As a rookie in the NFL, Miller had quite a bit of hype as he was reportedly making plays left and right in OTAs, lighting up the practice field day in and day out. That hype carried over to fantasy hype as well, especially in dynasty leagues where Miller was viewed as a top WR prospect as well. That hype translated to success in the end zone last season as he led the team with seven TDs, but he finished just fifth on the team with 423 receiving yards. Outside of a big game last season where he put up 5-122-1 against Detroit, he was held under 50 receiving yards in every other contest. He was in on 59.4% of the team’s snaps last season seeing a healthy dose of those snaps (67%) in the slot.

State of the Offense

Let’s cut to the chase on this one, Mitchell Trubisky has been a problem at QB for the Bears this season. He has taken a step back in his production this season in pretty much all major passing categories such as his league-low 5.8 YPA and he’s averaging just 185.8 YPG which ranks bottom three in the league with the likes of Mason Rudolph and Case Keenum. Needless to say, the team as a whole offers a bottom-three passing offense and what makes matters worse is they also offer a bottom-five rushing offense to boot. No offense = no bueno.

When we look at the receiving options in the passing game, we haven’t seen the TD upside from Miller yet this season as he has yet to find the end zone. His production is up slightly in overall yards as he ranks third on the team with 349 yards, just under Taylor Gabriel. The standout there, however, is that Gabriel has played in two-fewer games this season. The NFL and fantasy football players live very much in a world of “what have you done for me lately” though which is why we are here talking about Miller. His recent involvement has seen his snap shares jump into the mid-80% range and in return, his volume has soared.

Outlook

With their offense ranked so low all around, it is hard to get excited about more than one receiver here, and that is Allen Robinson. But even he isn’t immune to Trubisky as he was held under 20 yards in two of his last three games before his big Week 12 performance. Gabriel has primarily operated as the team’s WR2 this season but has had little fantasy value outside of a three TD performance earlier in the season. The storyline to watch with him is that he is currently in the league’s concussion protocol and with the quick turnaround and the Bears playing on Thanksgiving, it is hard to see him suiting up for that one. With Gabriel out, Miller could be poised for a breakout performance against a Lions secondary that has allowed the third-most passing yards in the league this season and ranks top 10 in fantasy points allowed to WRs.

The rest of season outlook for Miller and the Bears wideouts is a mixed bag when looking at our matchup calendar. After this cushy matchup against the Lions, Miller will get the Cowboys, Packers, and Chiefs for their last three matchups. On the bright side of this, these are all teams capable of putting up over 30 points in a game that will challenge the Bears defense and help push the pace of the Bears offense in an attempt to likely try and keep up. Two of those games are also home games for the Bears.

On the downside of those matchups, each of those three teams in Weeks 14-16 have been pretty tough against opposing WRs ranking inside the top 12 in fewest fantasy points allowed to the position and depending on your scoring, the Cowboys give up the third-fewest alone.

Miller’s role is still growing on this offense and he has still been learning the ropes as a young wideout. He has been in the dog house with coaches “more than once” this season according to a recent report from NBC Sports Chicago, though the general feeling amongst coaches and Miller himself is that those times are behind him and he is ready for a boost in production.

If you are looking for WR depth and someone you can throw into WR3 or Flex spots over the final stretch of the season, you could do worse than Miller. It feels like he is due for a surge of TD production based on his strength there last season and the lack of production the team is getting from its running game. I like his overall talent a lot and if he were tied to a stronger offense I think we would see a much different player. It all comes down to need on your roster and there are a few options out there at QB and even RB this week that will rival Miller as the top add of the week, though there doesn’t really feel like there is one definitive guy this week. Miller should be pretty cheap to use a few bucks you have left of your FAAB and I would rank him amongst the top receiver available consider his low ownership of just 12% at Yahoo.

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