DraftKings NBA Lineup Advice: Friday (11/15) PREMIUM
I would like to start this post by saying a few theoretical words about looking at Vegas betting data when building DFS lineups. There is a tendency for fantasy players to look towards games with higher over/under and to lean towards teams with higher team implied totals. This is a sound idea, of course – Vegas has a massive monetary incentive to put out accurate lines that are not exploitable by bettors. What I think a lot of people miss when considering this for fantasy sports purposes is the team context behind those lines. Sorting the slate’s games by over/under and favoring players on teams that are near the top of the list is not a very thoughtful way of doing it. You want to consider a team’s projected score against their average score, or even against their average projected Vegas score.
The average over/under for a Rockets game this year is 234 – the highest mark in the league. Tonight their game’s over/under is 226, the second-highest on the slate. You might look at that and say the Rockets are in a good spot because their game has a high over/under, but in this case, you should be saying the Rockets are in a worse spot than usual because their total is eight points below their season average. Let’s try to keep that in mind moving forward.
Team Spots to Exploit
Timberwolves (vs. Wizards):
The Wolves have an average Vegas implied total of 114 for the year, which sits at 122 tonight, which is a huge boost. The league average in fantasy points allowed per game is 227, the Wizards are averaging 243. They have given up less than 227 just three times, and have given up more than 250 five times. The last time these two teams played, the Wolves scored 275 fantasy points – so they are a great team to gravitate towards tonight.