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DraftKings NBA Lineup Advice: Friday (11/15)
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Nov 15, 2019

Bradley Beal could be in line for another huge game tonight

I would like to start this post by saying a few theoretical words about looking at Vegas betting data when building DFS lineups. There is a tendency for fantasy players to look towards games with higher over/under and to lean towards teams with higher team implied totals. This is a sound idea, of course – Vegas has a massive monetary incentive to put out accurate lines that are not exploitable by bettors. What I think a lot of people miss when considering this for fantasy sports purposes is the team context behind those lines. Sorting the slate’s games by over/under and favoring players on teams that are near the top of the list is not a very thoughtful way of doing it. You want to consider a team’s projected score against their average score, or even against their average projected Vegas score.

The average over/under for a Rockets game this year is 234 – the highest mark in the league. Tonight their game’s over/under is 226, the second-highest on the slate. You might look at that and say the Rockets are in a good spot because their game has a high over/under, but in this case, you should be saying the Rockets are in a worse spot than usual because their total is eight points below their season average. Let’s try to keep that in mind moving forward.

Check out today’s NBA Sharpshooter from DraftKings >>

Team Spots to Exploit

Timberwolves (vs. Wizards):
The Wolves have an average Vegas implied total of 114 for the year, which sits at 122 tonight, which is a huge boost. The league average in fantasy points allowed per game is 227, the Wizards are averaging 243. They have given up less than 227 just three times, and have given up more than 250 five times. The last time these two teams played, the Wolves scored 275 fantasy points – so they are a great team to gravitate towards tonight.

 

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1Derrick Henry (TEN)RB
2Chris Carson (SEA)RB
3Christian McCaffrey (CAR)RB
4Dalvin Cook (MIN)RB
5Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)RB
6Nick Chubb (CLE)RB
7Leonard Fournette (JAC)RB
8Saquon Barkley (NYG)RB
9Aaron Jones (GB)RB
10DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)WR
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11Todd Gurley (LAR)RB
12Michael Thomas (NO)WR
13Alvin Kamara (NO)RB
14Melvin Gordon (LAC)RB
15Tyreek Hill (KC)WR
16Mark Ingram (BAL)RB
17Chris Godwin (TB)WR
18Phillip Lindsay (DEN)RB
19Davante Adams (GB)WR
20D.J. Moore (CAR)WR
21Julian Edelman (NE)WR
22Raheem Mostert (SF)RB
23Julio Jones (ATL)WR
24George Kittle (SF)TE
25Austin Ekeler (LAC)RB
26Joe Mixon (CIN)RB
27David Montgomery (CHI)RB
28Travis Kelce (KC)TE
29Kenny Golladay (DET)WR
30Miles Sanders (PHI)RB
1Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)LF,CF
2Nolan Arenado (COL)3B
3Mookie Betts (BOS)CF,RF
4J.D. Martinez (BOS)LF,RF
5Trevor Story (COL)SS
6Justin Verlander (HOU)SP
7Cody Bellinger (LAD)1B,CF
8Trea Turner (WSH)SS
9Alex Bregman (HOU)3B,SS
10Jacob deGrom (NYM)SP
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11Max Scherzer (WSH)SP
12Francisco Lindor (CLE)SS
13Gerrit Cole (NYY)SP
14Freddie Freeman (ATL)1B
15Javier Baez (CHC)2B,3B
16Charlie Blackmon (COL)CF
17Aaron Judge (NYY)RF,DH
18Juan Soto (WSH)LF
19Anthony Rendon (LAA)3B
20Bryce Harper (PHI)CF,RF
21Jose Altuve (HOU)2B
22Xander Bogaerts (BOS)SS
23Starling Marte (PIT)CF
24Walker Buehler (LAD)SP
25Manny Machado (SD)3B,SS
26Anthony Rizzo (CHC)1B
27Kris Bryant (CHC)3B,RF
28Whit Merrifield (KC)1B,2B
29George Springer (HOU)CF,RF
30Paul Goldschmidt (STL)1B
1Anthony Davis (LAL)PF,C
2James Harden (HOU)PG,SG
3Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)SF,PF
4Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN)C
5Kevin Durant (BKN)SF,PF
6LeBron James (LAL)SF,PF
7Stephen Curry (GSW)PG,SG
8Nikola Jokic (DEN)PF,C
9Damian Lillard (POR)PG
10Russell Westbrook (HOU)PG
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11Victor Oladipo (IND)PG,SG
12Paul George (LAC)SF,PF
13Joel Embiid (PHI)PF,C
14Kawhi Leonard (LAC)SG,SF
15Chris Paul (OKC)PG
16Jimmy Butler (MIA)SG,SF
17Kemba Walker (BOS)PG
18Ben Simmons (PHI)PG,SF
19Kyrie Irving (BKN)PG,SG
20Jrue Holiday (NOR)PG,SG
21Rudy Gobert (UTH)C
22Andre Drummond (DET)PF,C
23John Wall (WAS)PG
24Kyle Lowry (TOR)PG
25Donovan Mitchell (UTH)PG,SG
26Khris Middleton (MIL)SG,SF
27Bradley Beal (WAS)SG
28Kevin Love (CLE)PF,C
29Draymond Green (GSW)PF,C
30LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS)PF,C
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