DraftKings NFL Cash Lineup Advice: Week 12 (2019)
Where is all the value? Building a DraftKings cash game lineup for the Week 12 NFL slate on Sunday is a challenge this week. As of this writing there sure aren’t many value options to consider and feel good about. So, unless some value opens up as we head into Sunday morning, we will be forced to make some tough decisions on where to spend and where to save a few bucks. No matter what happens, be sure to build some upside into your lineup even if it means taking a risk in one or two lineup spots.
Nick Foles (JAC): $5,400 @ TEN
Trust me, I want to be writing about Matt Ryan right now and how he faces Buccaneers’ defense that gives up a ton of production to opposing passing games and how Ryan seems like a lock for at least 300 yards and three scores. However, my current cash game lineup construction has forced me to consider paying down at quarterback with Foles. Foles returned to the starting lineup last week and put up 296 passing yards and two touchdowns, albeit a lot of the production game in garbage time in a blowout loss. Numbers like that are at least in the realm of possible outcomes for Foles, who should get better now that he has a game under his belt and has a favorable matchup against the Titans. Much like the Buccaneers who are stout against the run and vulnerable to the pass, the Titans have a similar defensive identity ranking fourth Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) against the run, but 22nd DVOA against the pass according to FootballOutsiders. If some value opens up then look to climb the ladder from Foles to Baker Mayfield and potentially even to Matt Ryan if possible.
Alvin Kamara (NO): $8,200 vs. CAR
This may finally be the week! This may finally be the week where we don’t just plug Christian McCaffrey into our lineups and figure it out from there. It’s not because he faces a tough Saints run defense, but merely because we are already scrounging around to look for value and paying McCaffrey’s high price tag makes things even worse. So, instead, let’s pivot to the other side of the field with the Saints Alvin Kamara facing the Panthers. Kamara brings a similar skill set as McCaffrey with his rushing and receiving ability, he is over $2,000 cheaper and has a better matchup. The Panthers rank dead-last DVOA versus the run this season and have allowed an average of 2.75 touchdowns to running backs over the last five weeks, which is plenty to go around between Kamara and Latavius Murray. After getting 23 touches last week, Kamara’s health concerns are a thing of the past as he is ready to put up McCaffrey-like numbers this week.
Bo Scarbrough (DET): $4,200 @ WAS
You know we are struggling for value when I am recommending a Lions running back who just joined the team a week ago and isn’t involved in the passing game. Scarbrough made an immediate impact on the Lions running game last week with 55 yards on 14 carries including a score against the Cowboys. This week Scarbrough has another week with the playbook and a much better matchup facing the Redskins. The Redskins have allowed 126 rushing yards (31st) and 0.75 touchdowns (20th) per game to running backs over the last five weeks. The Lions come in as a small Vegas favorite which could also give Scarbrough a positive game script for a busy afternoon.
- Nick Chubb (CLE): $8,100 vs. MIA
- Le’Veon Bell (NYJ): $6,400 vs. OAK
- Miles Sanders (PHI): $5,000 vs. SEA
- Derrius Guice (WAS): $4,700 vs. DET
Julio Jones (ATL): $8,000 vs. TB
I am making Jones a priority in my cash game lineup this week, especially if I can’t find the salary to pay up for Ryan at quarterback. Jones hasn’t scored since Week 3, but he has still put up at least 14 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. He draws a dream matchup this week playing at home against the Buccaneers who give up big production to opposing wide receivers with 15 receptions (31st) for 202 yards (32nd) and 1.7 touchdowns (32nd) per game. In two games versus the Bucs last season, Jones put up 19 receptions for 282 yards and a score.
Tyrell Williams (OAK): $5,900 @ NYJ
Unlike last week when there were a lot of strong wide receiver options in the mid-priced range, this week it seems you either have to pay up or take a shot on a cheap option. Tyrell Williams is one of the only mid-priced options with a solid floor and tons of upside potential. Williams has at least three catches in every game he has played this season which is enough when you average over 15 yards per reception and have one of the highest aDOTs in the league at 15 yards. He draws a favorable matchup this week against the Jets who have allowed 14.2 receptions (25th) for 178 yards (22nd) and 2.2 touchdowns (31st) to wide receivers over the last five weeks. That coupled with the Jets proficiency against tight ends this year should funnel more looks toward Williams and his ability to take any target to the house for a long score.
- Michael Thomas (NO): $9,300 vs. CAR
- Tyler Lockett (SEA): $7,600 @ PHI
- Chris Godwin (TB): $7,200 @ ATL
- Allen Robinson (CHI): $6,500 vs. NYG
- Russell Gage (ATL): $3,900 vs. TB
- Albert Wilson (MIA): $3,200 @ CLE
Ryan Griffin (NYJ): $4,200 vs. OAK
The tight end position is a black hole on this slate. There are only two tight ends that interest me for cash game lineups this week and they are priced right next to each other. Griffin is my preferred choice, but if you need the extra $100 then Greg Olsen is a viable option. Griffin has become a big part of the Jets passing game with at least four receptions and 50 yards in three of his last four games. He had a huge line with five grabs for 109 yards and a score last week and gets a juicy matchup this week against the Raiders. The Raiders have allowed 5.2 receptions (18th) for 52 yards (16th), and most importantly, 0.8 TDs (28th) per game over the last five weeks.
- Greg Olsen (CAR): $4,100 @ NO
Steelers D/ST: $4,000 @ CIN
I typically don’t pay up for my defense in cash games and it seems like on a slate that we are desperate for value it wouldn’t be the right time to pay up for a defense. However, I think we have a rare unicorn situation this week with the Steelers facing the Bengals. The Steelers D/ST has scored double-digit DK points in seven of their last eight games, while the Bengals have given up double-digit DK points in half of their games. The Steelers rank in the top four in sacks, turnovers, and D/ST touchdowns for the season and last five weeks, while the Bengals rank in the bottom eight in all of those categories and timeframes. It is a little bit of a risky take to bank on a defense as one of your difference makers, but I think they legitimately have double-digit sack potential this week, after all, they did have eight the first time these two teams met this season.
- Saints (NO): $3,300 vs. TB
- Broncos (DEN): $2,400 @ BUF