DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 10 (2019)
Field-stretching wideouts are a theme in this week’s DraftKings GPP lineup selections. A second theme is bargain salaries, as four of the six players highlighted have a salary of $5,100 or cheaper and only one’s salary is north of $7,000. Not featured below is mister-do-it-all stud Christian McCaffrey, but, suffice to say, you’ll have plenty of available cap space to use on him (and I’d advise heavy exposure to him even at his season-high salary of $10,500). A cheaper back, however, is featured after a well-rounded breakout performance last week. The picks are rounded out by a three-man game stack in what should be an uptempo contest.
Ted Ginn Jr. (WR – NO): $3.700 vs. Falcons
The Saints are hosting the hapless Falcons this week, and, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, they’re 13-point favorites with an implied total of 32.0 points. The Saints are coming off of their bye and got Drew Brees back before that for a blowout win against the Cardinals. They should have little trouble steamrolling a defense that Football Outsiders (FO) ranks 30th in overall Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and 31st in pass DVOA. This should be a popular game to stack on the slate, but Ginn might still go slightly overlooked given his volatility as a low-volume, big-play dependent receiver.
Having said that, he might be a steadier performer than gamers realize while still offering long-touchdown potential. Ginn has been with the Saints since the start of the 2017 season, and he’s played in 12 home games with Brees at quarterback. In those games, he’s posted per-game averages of 5.33 targets, 4.0 receptions, 62.25 receiving yards (and chipped in 1.3 rushing yards per game, bringing his yards from scrimmage per game to 63.55), and scored four receiving touchdowns. Ginn’s caught three or more passes in nine of those contests, and he’s reached at least 55 receiving yards in nine of those games. In the season opener against the Texans, he hauled in all seven of his targets for 101 receiving yards, so the numbers aren’t just heavily weighted by his first two seasons with the team, either. Ginn’s one of my favorite bargain options on the slate.
Devin Singletary (RB – BUF): $5,000 at Browns
Injuries have limited Singletary to playing in five of Buffalo’s eight games this year, and he’s bested 95 yards from scrimmage in two of them. He’s coming off of an eye-catching outburst in which he set new highs in carries (20), rushing yards (95), and receiving yards (45). For the second time in as many weeks and third time overall this year, he scored a touchdown, too.
He’s a slippery back who can make defenders miss, as you can see visual evidence of in the following tweet.
My favorite Devin Singletary run of the day:
*insert Chris Berman WHOOP*
— Dan Fetes (@danfetes) November 4, 2019
He’s averaging a broken tackle once on every 8.0 attempts, per Pro-Football-Reference. He doesn’t have enough carries to qualify for Pro-Football-Reference’s advanced rushing leaderboard, but to put his 8.0 attempts per broken tackle in perspective, it would rank tied for sixth with Chris Carson’s mark if he did qualify.
In addition to his ability to pick up yards on the ground, he’s doing damage through the air averaging 2.4 receptions and 20.6 receiving yards per game. He has a favorable matchup against the Browns this week.
FO ranks Cleveland 21st in run defense DVOA. Backs are thumping them for 4.87 yards per carry and have added 10.02 yards per reception on 36 receptions against them this year as well, according to Pro-Football-Reference. Singletary’s likely to be chalky this week drawing an ownership bump from point-chasers, but he’s worth eating the chalk with until his salary catches up to what appears to be a new workhorse role for him.
Marquise Brown (WR – BAL): $5,100 at Bengals
I touted “Hollywood” Brown in this space before the Ravens hosted the Bengals back in Week 6, and he, unfortunately, ended up missing that contest due to injury. I’ll go back to the well with the rookie wideout now that he’s healthy for this go-round.
The home-run threat receiver will take aim at a Bengals’ defense that NFL.com credits with surrendering the fifth-most 20-plus yard passes (36) this year, and two of the teams that have coughed up more have played one more game. Adding some context to Brown’s field-stretching usage, among receivers and tight ends targeted a minimum of 40 times this year, his average depth of target of 12.2 yards is tied for 21st deepest, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Additionally, Cincinnati’s defense isn’t good against the pass in general. FO ranks them 30th in pass defense DVOA. Also, don’t be fooled by the fact they’ve allowed the 12th-fewest DraftKings points per game to receivers. That’s largely masked by a low volume of passes to wideouts against the Bengals. They’ve faced the second-fewest targets (125) and coughed up a staggering 16.2 yards per reception to the position this year. This matchup is tailor-made for “Hollywood” blowing up.
Kyler Murray (QB – ARI): $6,500 at Buccaneers
Andy Isabella (WR – ARI): $3,300 at Buccaneers
Chris Godwin (WR – TB): $7,400 vs. Cardinals
The Cardinals are traveling to Tampa Bay this week, and they’ve been regulars in this piece throughout the year due to their frantic pace of play. They’re no longer playing at the fastest overall pace, dropping to second behind the Bengals, per FO. Although, they do remain atop the situation neutral pace leaderboard. The Buccaneers aren’t exactly milking the clock either, playing at the ninth-fastest overall pace and ranking 17th in situation neutral pace. Unsurprisingly, this game’s over/under total sits at a nifty 51.5 points. The Cardinals are 4.5-point underdogs, but their implied total of 23.5 points is solid if unspectacular.
Murray’s flashed his ability this year and is a high-ceiling option with the ability to pile up points with his arm and legs. He’s rushed for more than 25 yards in six of his last seven games with a couple of touchdown scampers on his ledger. He also has four multi-touchdown passing efforts and three games with 300-plus passing yards. His best game was carving up another soft NFC South pass defense, shredding the Falcons for 340 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, and adding 32 rushing yards back in a Week 6 tilt.
FO ranks the Falcons 31st in pass defense DVOA, but the Buccaneers haven’t been a hell of a lot better ranking 26th. Their defense has been buoyed by ranking first in run defense DVOA, adding to the appeal of attacking them through the air. The Buccaneers have yielded the second-most DraftKings points per game to the position, making Murray an extremely appealing GPP option.
Murray makes for a strong standalone play who doesn’t need a stacking partner, but rookie speedster Isabella is an enticing near-minimum salary-stack partner. He showcased his jets on an 88-yard touchdown reception last week.
– The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) November 1, 2019
That big play should surely earn Isabella more playing time, right? Maybe not.
WR Andy Isabella not expected to get a big uptick in playing time after his 88-yard TD. Kingsbury: “We know he has explosive capability. We want him to continue to learn and continue to get better. We have a plan for him, and he’s on pace for what we want him to be.”
– Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) November 4, 2019
We should definitely take head coach Kliff Kingsbury at his word, though, right? Not a snowball’s chance in hell.
Recently acquired running back Kenyan Drake went through drills Tuesday. He’ll be given a manageable workload Thursday, coach Kliff Kingsbury said, to help his transition to a new team and a new offense on a short week. pic.twitter.com/XPxCO5Powp
– Josh Weinfuss (@joshweinfuss) October 29, 2019
The tweet above showcases Kingsbury stating Kenyan Drake would be awarded a manageable workload after being acquired just a few days prior to the Thursday Night Football game. Drake touched the ball 19 times and was on the field for 84% of the team’s offensive snaps. Kingsbury also notably told beat reporters after the team’s Week 7 contest that David Johnson was active as an emergency option and didn’t suffer a setback with his ankle injury after the veteran back was on the field for only three offensive snaps and touched the ball one time. Johnson hasn’t played in the team’s two games since. Kingsbury’s explanation doesn’t pass the sniff test.
Maybe Isabella won’t build on his season-highs in offensive snaps (13) and offensive snap percentage (23%) after making a breathtaking play, but I’m not dismissing him as a tournament option simply because Kingsbury indicates Isabella isn’t in store for an uptick in playing time. He’s proven he can’t be trusted. Perhaps others will take him at his word though, suppressing Isabella’s ownership in a matchup against a defense that’s been pantsed for the most DraftKings points per game allowed to receivers this year. He’s not a safe play by any stretch, but Isabella’s worth some GPP bullets.
The last two weeks have been Mike Evans weeks, ergo this week will be a Godwin week, right? That’s how this works, isn’t it? Not exactly, but one reason to believe this will be a Godwin week is the fact he should see less of Patrick Peterson than his running mate. Evans has played the slot 19.4% of the time this year, per PlayerProfiler, and Godwin’s been in the slot 55.3% of the time. Peterson’s played only two games this year after serving a suspension to open the year, but he’s traveled into the slot just 6.6% of the time on his 87.6% snap share. Last year, he played the slot just 1.4% of the time. Expect Evans to see more of Peterson, leaving Godwin to feast on a Cardinals’ defense that’s yielded the 10th-most DraftKings points per game to wideouts.