DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 11 (2019)
A couple of stacks kick off the DraftKings GPP picks below, starting with a running back and defense correlation stack. They’re joined by a game stack featuring an underpriced backup running back who’s being pressed into feature-back duties and an explosive receiver facing a bad pass defense. The picks are rounded out by a stud wideout one-off play.
Devin Singletary (RB – BUF): $6,000 at Dolphins
Bills (D/ST – BUF): $3,800 at Dolphins
I rarely suggest a defense in this space, but I’m going to buck that trend this week. First, I’ll also note that I wouldn’t advise overexposing yourself to the Bills D/ST. That’s not a knock on them, rather, I also believe Washington’s D/ST makes for a strong play at a $1,000 discount. Having said that, a matchup with the Dolphins is perfect for Buffalo’s defense.
Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Bills ninth in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) in pass defense, but they rank them 27th in DVOA run defense. When the Bills hosted the Dolphins in Week 7, Mark Walton rumbled for 66 rushing yards on 14 carries, and Kenyan Drake added 21 rushing yards on six carries. Walton’s suspended, and Drake was traded to the Cardinals. That leaves Kalen Ballage heading the backfield, and Ballage is awful. To that point, Ballage’s -66 Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) are the worst total out of backs who’ve carried the ball between 15 and 79 times, and his -38.2% DVOA is the fifth-worst mark in that group. He’s not the back to exploit Buffalo’s shortcomings defending the run, and Miami’s roster is devoid of a back who can do so.
That sets Buffalo’s pass defense up to pick on Ryan Fitzpatrick and Miami’s turnstile-caliber offensive line. FO credits the Dolphins with the third-highest adjusted sack rate at 9.8%. Fitz played relatively well in the first meeting, but he had his top wideout, Preston Williams, at his disposal in that one. Williams has since suffered a season-ending injury. The Bills will have a golden opportunity to pile up fantasy points with sacks and turnovers forced, and they should have little trouble keeping Miami’s scoring in check. The Dolphins are 6.5-point underdogs with an implied total of only 17.25 points, per DraftKings Sportsbook.
If the game goes according to the spread, the Bills should be positioned to prevent offensive coordinator Brian Daboll from vomiting all over himself with another pass-heavy approach in a plus matchup for his talented rookie back. Remember that list Ballage sat at the bottom of in DYAR and fifth-worst in DVOA? Of course you do, and Singletary leads that group of backs in the 15 to 79 carries threshold in both DYAR (110) and DVOA (53.2%). Speaking of leading a category, despite his lack of eye-catching straight-line speed, PlayerProfiler credits him with the best breakaway run rate (carries of 15 yards or more) at 12.5%. The rookie runner’s ability to rip off breakaway runs should play perfectly against Miami’s leaky run defense. FO ranks the Dolphins 30th in run defense DVOA, and they’re tied for the fifth-highest average explosive run rate at 13%, according to Sharp Football Stats. FO ranks Buffalo’s offensive line second in adjusted line yards, and they should steamroll Miami’s run defense, leading to a big day for Singletary on the ground.
Additionally, Miami’s surrendered 42 receptions for 368 receiving yards and three touchdowns to running backs on only 50 targets this season, per Pro-Football-Reference. Singletary’s caught 10 of 16 targets for 83 receiving yards and a touchdown over his last three games, and he possesses the requisite pass-catching skills to pick up some points through the air against the Dolphins, too. Singletary’s underpriced, and, perhaps, his disappointing showing coupled with some solid running back alternatives at affordable prices as well as in the elite territory will help keep his ownership rate from ballooning this week.
Revisiting Sharp Football Stats, the Panthers have allowed the highest average explosive run rate at 17%. Carolina’s propensity for giving up explosive runs helps explain their basement-dwelling in FO’s run defense DVOA. Hill is poised to fill in for Devonta Freeman in the dreamiest possible running back matchup imaginable. He’ll undoubtedly be chalky, but I’ll be eating it on the majority of my teams and advise other gamers to do so as well.
Both Hill and Samuel should benefit from a likely breakneck pace. FO credits the Panthers with playing at the fourth-fastest pace and seventh-fastest situation neutral pace, and Atlanta’s not far behind ranking sixth-fastest overall in pace and ninth-fastest in situation neutral pace. The speedy tempo helps support the game’s fantasy-friendly over/under total of 49 points.
As for Samuel, there’s a lot to like about him this week. First, he has a cushy matchup against FO’s 31st ranked pass defense. Second, he’s been an air yards monster this year. Samuel’s 1,052 Intended Air Yards are the fourth-highest total this year, according to Sports Info Solutions. Quarterback Kyle Allen should have ample time to dial up some deep balls to Samuel, as the Falcons have the fifth-lowest pressure percentage (defined as the sum of hurries, knockdowns, and sacks divided by dropbacks) at only 19.4%, per Pro-Football-Reference. Samuel’s also built to feast on Atlanta’s struggles with surrendering explosive passing plays. Sharp Football Stats has the Falcons tied for the seventh-highest average explosive pass rate at 10%. Samuel might be semi-chalky against Atlanta’s porous pass defense, but I expect teammate D.J. Moore to steal some ownership from his running mate at just $600 more and coming off of back-to-back games with over 100 receiving yards.
Mike Evans (WR – TB): $7,400 vs. Saints
When the Buccaneers played the Saints in New Orleans in Week 5, Evans was held to a bagel on three targets. In that matchup, he was completely shut down by stud corner Marshon Lattimore. He’s unlikely to see Lattimore this week — or, at worst, he’ll see a banged-up Lattimore — since he’s battling a hamstring injury that’s kept him out of practice.
Evans and Chris Godwin have both played at a high level this year, but Evans’ 102.7 receiving yards per game top Godwin’s 93.3 mark — and that’s with a zero on Evans’ ledger. Since getting completely shut out by the Saints in Week 5, Evans has gone nuclear with lines of 9-96-0, 11-198-2, 12-180-1, and 4-82-0. Perhaps most impressively, though, his 1,369 Intended Air Yards this year is an eye-popping 241 ahead of Keenan Allen’s second-place total of 1,128. Pony up for Evans this week.